THAKSIN TO RETURN THIS WEEK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000607

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NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAKSIN TO RETURN THIS WEEK

REF: BANGKOK 189 (SUCCESSFUL PROSECUTION UNLIKELY)

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
plans to return to Thailand by the end of the week, according
to well-placed sources and press reports. Thaksin has, we
believe, long intended to return to Thailand as soon as he
was convinced it was safe to do so; he will still have to
face charges connected to some of the corruption cases
pending against him. Anti-Thaksin groups that spearheaded
the demonstrations against him in 2006 say they will not
begin demonstrating again yet, but will monitor the
government for any interference in the court cases against
Thaksin. We expect security to be tight for the former PM,
who could well face threats or violence from some of his many
enemies. The Thai public is, however, tired of demonstrations
and political theater, and is unlikely to support significant
street demonstrations or other protests unless there is
evidence of government interference in the judicial process
against Thaksin. Post will hold an EAC meeting to consider
any possible security issues that could affect post. END
SUMMARY


2. (C) Well-informed sources in the Thai government told us
today that former Prime Minister Thaksin intended to return
to Thailand on Friday morning, flying in to Bangkok at 9 am.
A number of press sources have also carried the report,
although some press sources are predicting a return on
Thursday morning on a commercial flight from Hong Kong.
These reports followed fevered speculation for the past
several weeks about Thaksin's plans. According to a variety
of sources, Thaksin has been in Cambodia for several days.
PM Samak and Army Chief Anoupong are making a one-day trip to
Cambodia today (Feb. 26),and it is widely speculated that
they will meet Thaksin there.

WHY NOW?
--------------


3. (C) Thaksin has long, we believe, planned to return as
soon as he believed that it was safe for him to do so. The
Thaksin-friendly PPP has control of the government, and the
military appears prepared to accept Thaksin's return.
Indeed, all sides of the polarized political debate have
generally agreed that Thaksin would, at some point, need to
return to Thailand to face the criminal charges pending
against him in the courts. As when his wife returned
(reftel),Thaksin will presumably report quickly to the
court, be arraigned (on charges connected to a questionable
land purchase),and then released on bail.


4. (C) During Thaksin's absence from Thailand, many leading
political figures -- especially from the People's Power Party
(PPP) -- were rumored if not confirmed to be traveling abroad
to meet with Thaksin, and there is a common belief that
Thaksin directs PPP actions from behind the scenes.
Thaksin's return should increase his already-substantial
influence over PPP and government policies, as well as
heightening his public profile. The media attention he draws
will diminish the stature of Prime Minister Samak. Samak,
who commented memorably in August 2007 that he was Thaksin's
"nominee," has shown some signs of independence since taking
office; this may have caused Thaksin some concern. Even as
Prime Minister, however, Samak appears to lack the political
network and resources to compete with Thaksin for influence.
We believe Thaksin's primary near-term goals include
unfreezing his assets, addressing legal cases against him,
and improving his position (either through humility or
hostility) vis-a-vis those who have shown an ability to
mobilize popular sentiment against him.

THAKSIN'S OPPONENTS GIRD FOR BATTLE - BUT NOT YET
-------------- --------------


5. (C) All five leaders of the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) -- whose street protests in 2006 paved the
way for the removal of Thaksin -- met on February 25 to
discuss PAD's response to the return. Spokesman Suriyasai
told us that PAD does not intend to mobilize street protests
yet, despite some tough talk by PAD leaders that was

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amplified in the press reports. Rather, they will monitor
the situation, paying particular attention to any
interference in the legal process. They do not intend to send
demonstrators to the airport. Interior Minister Chalerm has
said that the authorities will not interfere with protest
rallies if they are held, but some pro-Thaksin groups have
threatened to hold counter-demonstrations if PAD takes to the
streets again.


6. (C) We anticipate that security for Thaksin's return will
be very tight. Interior Minister Chalerm said publicly that
he will personally meet Thaksin on his arrival and take
responsibility for his security. Thaksin, who loved to mix
with the 'common people' in his trips to the countryside --
and Bangkok's luxury malls -- may chafe under the kind of
security he probably needs. Given the very strong feelings
against him, particularly in Bangkok, we are concerned that
there could be an assassination attempt, or other efforts to
scare or injure him. His security detail will need to stay
alert. Embassy EAC will consider the situation on February 27.

COMMENT
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7. (C) People are tired of demonstrations. If Thaksin
returns, but keeps a low profile, he may not provoke much of
a broad public reaction, at least not at first. That's a big
"IF" for someone like Thaksin, however. If he appears to get
special privileges (for example, the ability to travel abroad
even though he's on bail),or if there appears to be
political interference in the cases against him, then his
opponents might take to the streets again. Thaksin's return
will heighten political tensions at a time when most Thais
still want to see the government concentrating on issues
important to them, especially the economy.


JOHN