Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK384
2008-02-06 10:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:
DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000384
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN
THAILAND
REF: A. BANGKOK 340 (AMBASSADOR MEETS SAMAK)
B. BANGKOK 282 (THE THAKSIN RESTORATION)
C. BANGKOK 276 (BIO OF SAMAK)
BANGKOK 00000384 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
-------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000384
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN
THAILAND
REF: A. BANGKOK 340 (AMBASSADOR MEETS SAMAK)
B. BANGKOK 282 (THE THAKSIN RESTORATION)
C. BANGKOK 276 (BIO OF SAMAK)
BANGKOK 00000384 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet were
inaugurated at the Palace on the afternoon on February 6; the
ceremony marked the return of a democratically-elected
government to office. Most Thais view Samak and his People's
Power Party as beholden to deposed Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, despite recent press accounts of Samak seeking to
establish his independence. We have not detected military
resistance to Samak and his party; we believe the current
environment is not conducive to military intervention, and a
top General told the Ambassador the Army was ready to work
under Samak. Septel will provide further details on the new
cabinet. End Summary.
SAMAK TAKES CHARGE
--------------
2. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet took
their oath of office before King Bhumibol in a Palace
ceremony late in the afternoon of February 6. The
inauguration marked both the return to power of a
democratically-elected government and a return to influence
for deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
3. (C) Samak and his People's Power Party (PPP) campaigned in
the December 2007 election as allies and followers of
Thaksin, eager to continue the populist policies of his
dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. The substantial plurality
that PPP won reflected not only the effectiveness of the
party's machinery, but also Thaksin's continuing appeal in
much of Thailand, as well as widespread dissatisfaction with
the interim government installed by the coup leaders. PPP
officials could reasonably say the election provided them
with a mandate to restore Thaksin to a position of influence,
although this assertion in the current climate would
unnecessarily antagonize Thaksin's foes.
4. (C) Although Samak was eager to present himself as
Thaksin's follower during his campaign, he has more recently
publicly asserted his independence. The local media has
reported that Samak and Thaksin clashed over cabinet
appointments; it remains unclear whether those stories are
accurate or were planted to enhance Samak's credibility.
Whatever the extent of the friction between the two men,
leading politicians' recent travels abroad to call on Thaksin
indicate their recognition of the deposed PM's continuing
importance. Nevertheless, Samak may decide that he wants to
use his newfound formal authority to advance not simply
Thaksin's interests, but his own as well -- and his and his
patron's agendas may increasingly diverge.
NO SIGNS THE ARMY WON'T GO ALONG
--------------
5. (C) Pre-election speculation about whether the Army would
tolerate a PPP administration has ended. In a significant
difference from 2006, there seems now to be a widespread
recognition, grounded in recent experience, that unelected,
military-installed governments have no special capability to
resolve the country's problems. We believe that, under
current conditions, most of the political class, the business
elite, and many average Thais who welcomed the coup in 2006
would not support another instance of military intervention
in politics. PPP figures speak well of Army Commander
Anupong Paojinda, both privately and publicly.
6. (C) Prime Minister Samak concurrently serves as Defense
BANGKOK 00000384 002.2 OF 002
COMMENT
--------------
7. (C) Despite the breadth of PPP's coalition, Samak's
government faces numerous challenges ahead. Economic
conditions are challenging; critics will dig for evidence of
Thaksin's influence and decry it as inappropriate; there are
important unresolved legal cases against PPP figures and some
of its coalition allies (see ref B); and Samak's personality
is not media-friendly. Nevertheless, the return to power of
a democratically-elected government is a highly positive
development, and we are encouraged to see no signs of open
military resistance.
JOHN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
NSC FOR PHU
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH
SUBJECT: DEMOCRATICALLY-ELECTED GOVERNMENT INAUGURATED IN
THAILAND
REF: A. BANGKOK 340 (AMBASSADOR MEETS SAMAK)
B. BANGKOK 282 (THE THAKSIN RESTORATION)
C. BANGKOK 276 (BIO OF SAMAK)
BANGKOK 00000384 001.2 OF 002
Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet were
inaugurated at the Palace on the afternoon on February 6; the
ceremony marked the return of a democratically-elected
government to office. Most Thais view Samak and his People's
Power Party as beholden to deposed Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra, despite recent press accounts of Samak seeking to
establish his independence. We have not detected military
resistance to Samak and his party; we believe the current
environment is not conducive to military intervention, and a
top General told the Ambassador the Army was ready to work
under Samak. Septel will provide further details on the new
cabinet. End Summary.
SAMAK TAKES CHARGE
--------------
2. (C) Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and his cabinet took
their oath of office before King Bhumibol in a Palace
ceremony late in the afternoon of February 6. The
inauguration marked both the return to power of a
democratically-elected government and a return to influence
for deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra.
3. (C) Samak and his People's Power Party (PPP) campaigned in
the December 2007 election as allies and followers of
Thaksin, eager to continue the populist policies of his
dissolved Thai Rak Thai party. The substantial plurality
that PPP won reflected not only the effectiveness of the
party's machinery, but also Thaksin's continuing appeal in
much of Thailand, as well as widespread dissatisfaction with
the interim government installed by the coup leaders. PPP
officials could reasonably say the election provided them
with a mandate to restore Thaksin to a position of influence,
although this assertion in the current climate would
unnecessarily antagonize Thaksin's foes.
4. (C) Although Samak was eager to present himself as
Thaksin's follower during his campaign, he has more recently
publicly asserted his independence. The local media has
reported that Samak and Thaksin clashed over cabinet
appointments; it remains unclear whether those stories are
accurate or were planted to enhance Samak's credibility.
Whatever the extent of the friction between the two men,
leading politicians' recent travels abroad to call on Thaksin
indicate their recognition of the deposed PM's continuing
importance. Nevertheless, Samak may decide that he wants to
use his newfound formal authority to advance not simply
Thaksin's interests, but his own as well -- and his and his
patron's agendas may increasingly diverge.
NO SIGNS THE ARMY WON'T GO ALONG
--------------
5. (C) Pre-election speculation about whether the Army would
tolerate a PPP administration has ended. In a significant
difference from 2006, there seems now to be a widespread
recognition, grounded in recent experience, that unelected,
military-installed governments have no special capability to
resolve the country's problems. We believe that, under
current conditions, most of the political class, the business
elite, and many average Thais who welcomed the coup in 2006
would not support another instance of military intervention
in politics. PPP figures speak well of Army Commander
Anupong Paojinda, both privately and publicly.
6. (C) Prime Minister Samak concurrently serves as Defense
BANGKOK 00000384 002.2 OF 002
COMMENT
--------------
7. (C) Despite the breadth of PPP's coalition, Samak's
government faces numerous challenges ahead. Economic
conditions are challenging; critics will dig for evidence of
Thaksin's influence and decry it as inappropriate; there are
important unresolved legal cases against PPP figures and some
of its coalition allies (see ref B); and Samak's personality
is not media-friendly. Nevertheless, the return to power of
a democratically-elected government is a highly positive
development, and we are encouraged to see no signs of open
military resistance.
JOHN