ABHISIT VEJJAJIVA FORMALLY BECOMES THAI PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003695

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC TH
SUBJECT: ABHISIT VEJJAJIVA FORMALLY BECOMES THAI PRIME
MINISTER; THAKSIN TELLS SUPPORTERS TO KEEP FIGHTING

REF: A. BANGKOK 3648 (ABHISIT ELECTED)

B. BANGKOK 3529 (COURT DISSOLVES PPP)

C. BANGKOK 3520 (STALEMATE DRAGS ON)

D. BANGKOK 3492 (MOB SHUTS AIRPORT)

E. BANGKOK 3426 (LETHAL EXPLOSION)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Abhisit Vejjajiva on December 17 received the royal
command from King Bhumibol, formally becoming Thailand's
Prime Minister in the wake of the December 15 parliamentary
vote. He delivered an eloquent speech, partially in English,
pledging to work on behalf of all Thais, end Thailand's
"failed politics," restore Thailand's international image,
and move quickly to address economic problems. Abhisit's
announcement of the composition of his cabinet appears
imminent. Former Prime Minister Thaksin, whose official
passport already has been revoked by the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs, phoned in to a December 16 fundraiser held by his
supporters vowing to fight on. The Criminal Court issued
arrest warrants for six pro-Thaksin demonstrators who engaged
in violent acts outside the parliament on December 15.


2. (C) Comment: One can find irony in Abhisit's pledge to end
"failed politics," as he owes his election as Prime Minister
to the recent disorder, culminating in the closure of
Bangkok's airports in late November. That disorder appeared
to hasten the Constitutional Court's dissolution of the
previous ruling People's Power Party and convince many in the
Bangkok elite, including its usually apolitical big
businessmen, that it was necessary to establish a new
government unaligned with former Prime Minister Thaksin.


3. (C) Comment, cont.: The newest pro-Thaksin party, Puea
Thai, remains the largest single party in the parliament,
however, despite defections. In part because the current
Constitution strengthened checks on the power of the Prime
Minister, to prevent the rise of another Thaksin-like figure,
Abhisit will be highly vulnerable to the new opposition's
efforts in the legislature to pull him down. Despite the
minor ruckus in front of parliament December 15, it remains
unclear to what extent Thaksin's redshirt allies will emulate
the People's Alliance for Democracy's aggressive street
tactics. End Summary and Comment.

ABHISIT RECEIVES ROYAL COMMAND
--------------


4. (U) On December 17, Abhisit Vejjajiva received the royal
command from King Bhumibol that formally appointed him as
Prime Minister in the wake of the December 15 parliamentary
vote electing him. Following his appointment, Abhisit
delivered a televised speech emphasizing national
reconciliation, saying he would serve as Prime Minister of
all Thais. Citing the need for unity, Abhisit pledged to
"end failed politics" and rely on justice, the rule of law,
and democracy. He also pledged fast action to aid Thailand's
economy.


5. (U) Switching to English, Abhisit sought to reassure the
international community that the recent airport closures
forced by People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) protests
would not recur. He pledged also that, by late January,
Thailand would be ready to host the ASEAN Summit in Bangkok
(the Summit having previously been delayed by PAD
demonstrations). (Note: ASEAN FMs agreed December 15 in
Jakarta that the Summit would take place February 24-26.)

CABINET ANNOUNCEMENT IMMINENT
--------------


6. (C) Most political observers expect Abhisit to announce
the composition of his cabinet imminently amidst intense
public speculation. Former Ambassador to the U.S. (2004-2005)
Kasit Piromya remains likely to become Foreign Minister, but

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control over some other (more lucrative) positions has become
the focus of continued jostling between the Democrat Party
and the six other groupings of allied MPs (some being members
of dissolved parties who have not yet established new formal
affiliations). The Democrats face a difficult balancing act
ahead; the defection of a single large coalition partner, or
several of the smaller ones, would tilt the parliamentary
balance back in favor of the pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party.

THAKSIN PHONES IN TO FUND-RAISER; WARRANTS FOR SUPPORTERS
-------------- --------------


7. (U) Former Prime Minister Thaksin phoned in to a
fund-raiser organized by the United Front of Democracy
Against Dictatorship (UDD) on December 17. (The UDD is a
political group that organizes pro-Thaksin demonstrations.
Its sympathizers are generally known as "redshirts.")
According to media reports, Thaksin accused the courts and
the Army of pressuring his former coalition partners to
switch to the Democrat Party, vowed to keep fighting to
return someday to Thailand and resume his political career,
and asked his supporters to maintain their efforts. (Thaksin
himself is under pressure; immediately after Abhisit's
election as Prime Minister, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
announced it would revoke Thaksin's official passport. The
Ministry did not comment on the disposition of Thaksin's
ordinary passport.)


8. (U) The Criminal Court on December 17 issued arrest
warrants for six people involved in violent pro-Thaksin
demonstrations outside of the parliament on December 15 (ref
A). The police have also said publicly that they will arrest
those who commit violent acts.


9. (C) Comment: There is reason to believe that the security
forces and the courts may be significantly less tolerant of
disorderly acts by Thaksin supporters than they were of the
PAD's. (To date, no court has issued any arrest warrant for
PAD leaders based on the recent airport takeovers.)
Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether the security forces
will be able or willing to prevent political violence from
either side, or whether the largely passive posture in play
since August will continue. As far as we know, the security
forces have yet to identify the individuals who recently
fired grenades into PAD demonstrations, with lethal effect
(refs B-E). Police near the entrance to parliament where the
December 15 car stoning took place made no effort to prevent
the altercation from occurring.
JOHN