THAI HOUSE ELECTS DEMOCRAT ABHISIT AS NEXT PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 003648

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THAI HOUSE ELECTS DEMOCRAT ABHISIT AS NEXT PRIME
MINISTER

REF: A. BANGKOK 3529 (COURT DISSOLVES PPP)

B. BANGKOK 3154 (EX-COP THREATENS)

C. BANGKOK 2243 (NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) The Thai House of Representatives on December 15
elected Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as Thailand's
next Prime Minister by a vote of 235-198; we recommend that,
as with Abhisit's last two predecessors, the President call
to congratulate the PM-elect. Abhisit will likely receive
his formal appointment by King Bhumibol in a few days,
forming a cabinet soon thereafter. Abhisit won the Prime
Ministership with the support of most members of the
political parties that had formerly lined up with the party
loyal to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Abhisit
defeated former Police General Pracha Promnok, leader of the
Motherland Party, who had the support of pro-Thaksin
legislators. A large demonstration by pro-Thaksin
"redshirts" in Bangkok on December 13, featuring a
pre-recorded message from Thaksin, failed to sway members of
the Newin Chidchob faction, which defected to the Democrats.
Following the vote, scores of pro-Thaksin "redshirts" angrily
protested the vote. Thaksin, who is in Italy, phoned the
Ambassador following the vote to complain about the
Democrats' use of money politics; he predicted Abhisit would
remain in office for six months at most.


2. (C) Comment: The Democrats (who have been out of the
government since 2001) and various anti-Thaksin forces,
including the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),have
reason to cheer Abhisit's victory, though the real challenge
to Abhisit and the Democrats lies ahead: proving they can
govern effectively in a country as divided as Thailand is
currently. It remains unclear whether the "redshirts" will
mount sustained, vehement protests, or pick their moments,
such as when Abhisit will present his government's program
once the cabinet is formed and sworn in by the King.


3. (C) Comment, continued: Abhisit and his team will have to
devote considerable effort to coalition management, as the
pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party -- now in opposition -- remains
the largest in the House and can call a no-confidence debate
at will once the next general session commences in late
January. Although January 11 by-elections are not likely to
shift the balance in the House decisively, the defection of
Abhisit's newfound coalition partners back to the pro-Thaksin
camp could bring an abrupt end to Abhisit's administration.
We hope that, as in the late 1990's, the Democrats will prove
more willing than others to press the Burmese junta to
undertake democratic reforms. We will seek early
opportunities to engage the Abhisit administration on Burma,
as well as other foreign policy priorities that have taken a
back seat to Thailand's domestic political crisis, such as
Thailand's ASEAN Chairmanship and its pledged UNAMID
deployment. End Summary and Comment.

THE VOTE: DP RECLAIM PM SLOT AFTER 8 YEARS
--------------


4. (U) On the morning of December 15, the House elected
Democrat Party (DP) Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva (phonetic:
AHP-pee-sit WET-cha-chi-wah) as Thailand's next Prime
Minister, and the DP's first since before the Thaksin era
began in 2001. Abhisit defeated the candidate of the
pro-Thaksin Puea Thai Party, retired General Pracha Promnok,
who recently became Party Leader of the Motherland Party but
failed to win the support of all Motherland MPs. The vote
was 235-198 in Abhisit's favor, with three abstentions.


5. (C) Comment: The backing of Pracha by the Puea Thai Party
shows the extent to which the Constitutional Court's
dissolution of the previous two pro-Thaksin parties and the
barring of party executives for five years has obliterated
the ranks of senior politicians formally aligned with former

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Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and prevented Puea Thai
from dictating terms to minor coalition partners, as the
pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) had done after the
December 2007 elections. End Comment.


6. (SBU) The party affiliations of some MPs remain
undetermined, but the vote reflected the Democrats' success
in recruiting most members of the smaller parties that had
formerly supported Thaksin's proxies. The Democrats also
drew votes from a meaningful number of former PPP members.
By our count, there were 218 former members of the PPP who
retained their seats in the House after the party's
dissolution; 31 voted for Abhisit. The Democrats, who have
formally recruited into their party only two members of
dissolved parties, now hold 166 seats and remain heavily
dependent on their coalition partners in order to retain a
majority in the House. (Note: There are currently 446 MPs in
the House, nine suspended pending court review of election
violations; at full strength, the House would comprise 480
seats. By-elections will take place January 11 to fill 29
seats vacated by executive board members of the dissolved
parties and one seat held by a Democrat MP who died December
15.)


7. (C) Although the Democrats appeared confident going into
the vote and prevailed by a comfortable margin, they likely
did not take this win for granted. When the Ambassador saw
Abhisit on December 2 (ref A),he appeared dejected and
offered no indication that PPP's dissolution would pave the
way for his election as Prime Minister. Press reports
indicated that former PPP legislators in Buriram politician
Newin Chidchob's faction (supporting the Democrats) were
sequestered in advance of the vote, to prevent their being
lured to Thaksin's camp. At a small dinner hosted by the
Ambassador on December 11, senior Democrat Charoen
Khanthawong and Puea Thai Party Leader Yongyuth Wichaidit
both suggested that most of the Newin faction MPs would join
Puea Thai in the end.

THAKSIN'S DEJECTED TAKE
--------------


8. (C) Thaksin phoned the Ambassador from Milan, Italy after
the December 15 vote. Sounding dejected, Thaksin said he was
not surprised by the election result. He complained that the
Democrats had spent approximately 20 million Baht
(approximately $570,000) per head for Newin faction support,
and 10-15 million Baht per vote from other former PPP
coalition partners. When the Ambassador noted press reports
claimed that Puea Thai was offering 50 million Baht per head
to reclaim wayward MPs, Thaksin derided those reports as
"stupid" and said that legislators supported Puea Thai
because he remained popular with grassroots supporters, and
the association with Thaksin would ensure legislators'
reelection. Thaksin predicted Abhisit would last no more
than six months in office.


9. (C) Thaksin claimed the current political situation
reflected a non-violent coup of sorts by the military and the
judiciary. He also claimed that the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) had used military and/or military-trained
personnel in its recent seizure of the airports, and this was
why the Army Commander refused to take any action against the
demonstrators. (Comment: both yellow and red street
protesters appeared to have received training from military
and police personnel, likely both retired and active duty,
see ref B. End Comment.)


10. (C) Bemoaning his current circumstances, Thaksin said he
hoped the USG could help him to receive "justice." The
Ambassador noted that he consistently advocated even-handed
application of the rule of law. The Ambassador asked about
Thaksin's prior, optimistic prediction in July (ref C) that a
government of national unity would soon form and Thaksin
would receive an amnesty for past offenses. Thaksin
indicated this scenario had become less plausible, as he
lamented that too many Thais wrongly believed he was opposed
to the monarchy.

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CABINET LIKELY FORMED SOON
--------------


11. (SBU) The Democrats publicly unveiled their new coalition
on December 6 after an all-night session of political
horsetrading that marked a throwback to the style of Thai
politics prior to Thaksin's rise in 2001; despite predictions
to the contrary, the new partnership held through the House
vote with only a handful of defections. The party leaders
have likely already agreed on a distribution of cabinet seats
and penciled in their candidates. We expect Abhisit to
receive a Royal Command appointing him as Prime Minister in
the very near future. It may take a few days more for the
Palace, acting on a list to be submitted by Abhisit, to
release the Royal Command appointing the next cabinet, which
will be inaugurated in the presence of King Bhumibol shortly
thereafter.


12. (C) As of December 15, the front-runner for the position
of Foreign Minister in an Abhisit administration was Kasit
Piromya, former Ambassador to the United States (2004-05).
After retiring from the Foreign Ministry in 2005, Kasit broke
with Thaksin, whom he had served as foreign policy adviser,
became a Democrat Party official, and worked closely with the
PAD. The other candidate often mentioned is Democrat Deputy
Leader/MP Kraisak Choonhaven; Kraisak told some diplomats
December 10 that he felt his candidacy would be problematic
given his long-time association with the Free Burma movement.

REDSHIRTS' REACTION
--------------


13. (SBU) Tens of thousands of pro-Thaksin "redshirts" held a
peaceful rally at Bangkok's National Stadium on December 13.
The demonstration featured a prerecorded video message from
Thaksin; Thaksin denounced former PPP legislators who were
defecting to the Democrats, and he likened the dissolution of
the PPP to a "silent coup." Following the House vote on
December 15, hundreds of Thaksin loyalists protested angrily
at the parliament and tried to block the departure of
Democrat MPs. Some cars sustained damage (in at least one
case, a shattered windshield) from rocks and bricks thrown at
close range by redshirt protesters.

BIOGRAPHIC NOTES
--------------


14. (SBU) At 44 years of age, Abhisit Vejjajiva will become
Thailand's youngest-ever Prime Minister. Abhisit entered
politics with the Democrat Party at age 26, winning a seat in
the parliament in the March 1992 election. He served as
Government Spokesman from 1992-1994, as Deputy Secretary to
the Prime Minister in 1995, and Minister Attached to the
Prime Minister's Office from 1997-2001.


15. (C) Abhisit became Democrat Party Deputy Leader in 2003
and Party Leader in March 2005. He is widely seen as a
protege of Chuan Leekpai, the former Prime Minister who
retains enormous influence within the Democrat Party. Thai
politicians frequently comment that Abhisit is ethical and
intellectual but has difficulty appealing to rural Thais;
they also claim that Abhisit devotes time to his family at
the expense of his political endeavors (note: his two
children are known to have learning disabilities). Abhisit
appears to rely on others, especially Suthep Thaugsuban, the
Democrat Party Secretary General, to undertake difficult
political negotiations on his behalf.


16. (SBU) Abhisit attended high school in the UK and received
a Bachelor's degree and a Master's degree from Oxford
University. He also holds an LL.B. degree from Ramkhamhaeng
University. He formally served in the Army as a
Sub-Lieutenant in the mid-1980s, when he lectured in
economics at the Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy. He is
an eloquent English speaker. Abhisit was born on August 3,
1964, in Bangkok. He is married to Ms. Phimphen Vejjajiva, a
lecturer in the Department of Mathematics at Chulalongkorn

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University. The couple have two small children.


17. (C) Abhisit has appeared well-disposed to the U.S., and
we have long found him very accessible. Unless he has been
traveling outside of Bangkok, he has generally accepted our
invitations -- such as for a recent coffee at the EMR (ref A)
-- and accommodated our requests that he receive our visiting
VIPs.
JOHN