BANGKOK ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS END (FOR NOW);

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003541

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER AND LIZ PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC EAIR ECON EINV TH
SUBJECT: BANGKOK ANTI-GOVERNMENT PROTESTS END (FOR NOW);
AIRPORTS REOPENING

REF: A. BANGKOK 3529 (COURT DISSOLVES PPP)

B. BANGKOK 409 (NEW THAI CABINET)

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Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) The anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) on December 3 ended its protests at Bangkok's airports
and has withdrawn its guards from the Government House
compound, following the December 2 Constitutional Court
ruling that dissolved the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party
(PPP) (ref A). Some limited Thai Airways flights resumed
into and out of Suwannaphum Airport later December 3. A PAD
co-leader promised to resume protests, however, if the House
seeks to promote the interests of former Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra, either by amending the Constitution or by
electing a pro-Thaksin PM. The governing coalition appears
intact and able to elect a pro-Thaksin PM; the House is
scheduled to meet on December 8 for this purpose. King
Bhumibol walked unassisted and stood for an extended period
of time but appeared frail during his December 2 appearance
at the yearly parade in honor of his upcoming December 5
birthday, the National Holiday.


2. (C) Comment: Most Thai opinion-makers recognize the
significant damage that the PAD protests have caused to
Thailand's economy and international image. Few are bluntly
criticizing the PAD in public, however, likely because of a
perception that the PAD, reckless though it may be, has
support from the Queen and others in high positions such as
Privy Council President Prem, and because many share the
PAD's anti-Thaksin political goals. We believe that the
PAD's leadership is not cohesive, and some are aware that
many who support their goal did not approve of their recent
tactics. While we do not anticipate a PAD return to the
airports, we have no reason to believe that PAD will prove
more restrained in the future. If the legislators from the
disbanded PPP move en masse to the designated pro-Thaksin
vehicle, the Puea Thai party, they will surely continue to
take direction from Thaksin and could select a hard-liner as
the fourth Thai Prime Minister to hold office in 2008. End
Summary and Comment.

PROTESTS END, TOKEN FLIGHTS RESUME
--------------


3. (SBU) Supporters of the anti-government People's Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) on December 3 withdrew peacefully from
Bangkok's airports. PAD guards also departed from the
Government House compound, ending a three-month occupation of
the site. PAD co-leader Sondhi Limthongkul late on December
2, citing the Constitutional Court's dissolution of the
People's Power Party (PPP) earlier that day, announced the
end of all PAD protests. Sondhi threatened a resumption
(although without specifying a venue) in the event that
loyalists of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
establish a "proxy" government or seek to amend the
Constitution in order to further Thaksin's interests.


4. (SBU) Airport officials began to inspect their facilities
on December 3, and some Thai Airways commercial flight
service at Suvarnabhumi has already resumed. United has
informed customers it plans its first flight out of
Suwannaphum the morning of December 5; Northwest plans an
inbound flight on December 5 and outbound on December 6. TSA
is in discussion with U.S. carrier representatives and will
inspect Suvarnabhumi December 4. (More aviation details
septel.) The extent of the damage to Thailand's economy and
tourist and investment image from the airport seizure remains
unclear, but there is a widespread consensus that it is
significant. The RTG has not yet assessed the physical
damage to Government House facilities. It is unclear what

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criminal complaints, if any, might be filed against PAD
figures and supporters for the effects of their protests.

HOUSE PLANNING TO ELECT A NEW PM
--------------


5. (SBU) The dissolution of PPP, Chart Thai (CT),and
Matchima Thippathai has resulted in 14 PPP and 19 CT
legislators losing their seats in the House of
Representatives. (note: No Matchima party executives held
House seats.) Not all will be replaced before the next
general election; one PPP MP (Somchai Wongsawat) and three CT
MPs had been elected through the party list system, and
Article 109 (2) of the Constitution indicates those four
seats ought not to be re-filled. According to Article 109
(1),by-elections for the 29 remaining vacant seats, which
were held by MPs elected through the constituency system,
should take place within 45 days.


6. (SBU) The House currently consists of 447 MPs. Of these,
165 are members of the Democrat Party, the sole opposition
party. The rest are positioned as follows:

- Former PPP: 218 (49 percent)
- Motherland Party: 24 (5 percent)
- Former CT: 15 (3 percent)
- Former Matchima: 11 (3 percent)
- Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana: 9 (2 percent)
- Pracharaj: 5 (1 percent)


7. (SBU) Leading figures associated with Chart Thai and
Matchima said publicly that their MPs -- like their PPP
counterparts -- would remain together in new political
vehicles that would represent the reincarnation of the
dissolved parties. Despite well-known factionalism in PPP,
there is no indication that MPs formerly belonging to PPP
will decline to join the Puea Thai (For Thai) Party, which
was established as a backup vehicle in the event of PPP
dissolution.


8. (SBU) The House plans on taking advantage of a previously
scheduled session starting on December 8 to elect a new Prime
Minister. Speculation has focused principally on the
following MPs, formerly belonging to PPP:

- Former police officer Chalerm Yoobamrung;
- Former Deputy PM Mingkwan Sangsuwan; and
- Deputy House Speaker Apiwan Viriyachai.


9. (C) Comment: None of these three figures is particularly
impressive, and none would have had a chance of becoming
Prime Minister in the environment prevailing prior to the
2006 coup. As we have reported previously (see ref B),
Chalerm has a highly negative reputation, and his designation
as the Puea Thai candidate for PM could re-energize Thaksin's
opponents. End Comment.

KING BHUMIBOL ATTENDS HIS YEARLY PARADE, FEW AMBASSADORS DO
-------------- --------------


10. (C) The Ambassador on December 2 attended the annual
military parade in honor of King Bhumibol's upcoming
birthday. At the ceremony, the King was able to walk
unassisted and to stand for an extended time. He appeared
frail, however, and was unable to extend his arm in a full
salute to parading soldiers. His voice sounded firm when he
spoke. His public remarks -- a brief, formal response to the
military's annual re-assertion of its oath of loyality to him
-- made no reference to the political stalemate. His much
anticipated annual national address is scheduled for the
afternoon of December 4.


11. (C) Note: Many Ambassadors to Thailand chose not to
attend the parade; attendance from European and even ASEAN

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countries was sparse. We understand from European and
Australian counterparts that their absences were motivated by
a desire not to be seen as engaging in ceremonial duties
while their nationals sought assistance in departing the
country, as well as to send a signal that they were
displeased with the handling of the crisis that had
inconvenienced so many foreigners in Thailand. The absent
dean of the diplomatic corps, the Philippines' Ambassador,
was leading a 10 hour bus convoy of 450 stranded Filipino
nationals to Chiang Mai to catch a charter flight home.
JOHN