THAI STALEMATE DRAGS ON, FOCUS SHIFTING TO COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 003520

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER AND LIZ PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KJUS ASEC CASC ECON EINV TH
SUBJECT: THAI STALEMATE DRAGS ON, FOCUS SHIFTING TO COURT

REF: A. BANGKOK 3504 (LOOKING FOR WAY OUT)

B. BANGKOK 2616 (COURT RULINGS)

C. BANGKOK 2091 (CLOUDED FUTURE)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) An explosive device injured dozens of participants in
the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
gathering at the Government House compound on November 29.
Citing safety concerns, a PAD co-leader called for supporters
to decamp from Government House, although PAD may retain some
presence there. PAD has thwarted police efforts to block the
delivery of supplies for demonstrators at Bangkok's
international airport, and police officials told the Embassy
that they would not act forcefully against the demonstrators.
The police feel that public support for PAD is waning. Over
10,000 pro-government protestors rallied in Bangkok,
signaling dismay with an upcoming Constitutional Court ruling
that will likely dissolve the People's Power Party (PPP) and
remove Prime Minister Somchai from office. An American
automobile executive informed the Embassy that some union
workers at his Thai facility seemed to be taking their cue
from PAD tactics and blockaded his plant, in response to a
breakdown of negotiations on pay issues. PAD leaders have
publicly discussed shutting down Thai seaports, and they
appear to have some capability to do so. A top Foreign
Ministry official told the Ambassador on December 1 that
Thaksin was in Cambodia and might try crossing into Thailand
on December 2. End Summary.


2. (C) Comment: Our contacts have long expected the
Constitutional Court to dissolve PPP. The case against PPP
is based on election fraud committed by a single PPP
executive, and, although party dissolution seems like a
disproportionate sanction, this penalty appears
constitutionally-mandated; it is unclear whether the Court
has the discretion to spare the party, if it were inclined to
do so (which we doubt). The Court ruling might allow PAD to
declare victory and vacate its protest sites, but it also
should leave in place a pro-Thaksin government, meaning that
PAD's ultimate objective will remain unfulfilled. Any
progress PAD achieves toward its goal will increase the ire
of the pro-Thaksin camp. End Summary and Comment.

BOMB INJURES DOZENS
--------------


3. (SBU) Reports continue of small explosions and infrequent
gunfire in areas of Bangkok close to PAD protest sites.
While most incidents have occurred without injuries, an
explosive device that detonated at the Government House
compound on the night of November 29 injured at least four
dozen PAD supporters, although none died from their injuries.
Citing safety concerns, PAD co-leader Chamlong Srimuang
called publicly on December 1 for PAD supporters to decamp
from the Government House compound and rally instead at the
Bangkok airports, which remain in PAD hands. It appears the
PAD will leave some guards in place at Government House
overnight to prevent the authorities from regaining control,
and PAD will continue to hold rallies there during the
daytime.


4. (SBU) Over the weekend of November 29-30, the police set
up a checkpoint blocking access to Suvarnabhumi international
airport. In response, Chamlong called for PAD supporters to
proceed from Government House to the airport, to challenge
the police. When confronted, the police abandoned the
checkpoint, which PAD supporters dismantled to ensure they
could continue to supply their sympathizers at the airport
with food and water. Separately, PAD guards shot at a media
van approaching the Don Muang domestic airport on November 30.


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5. (C) RSO contacts in the Royal Thai Police (RTP) informed
us they do not intend to take forceful action against PAD
protestors at the airports. The RTP officials said they had
no good options to resolve the situation; the use of force
would entail "deaths and many injuries." (Note: While some
PAD guards fit the profile of street thugs, many of the
protestors at the airport are middle-aged, elderly, and/or
women. End Note.) Our RTP contacts said they were willing
to let the airport protests continue because it was turning
public opinion against the PAD, and even some demonstrators
were becoming disillusioned. The RTP is currently
negotiating with the PAD, but the talks appear not to be
substantive. (Comment: As in September, the declaration of a
state of emergency for the airports on November 27 -- ref A
-- appears to have carried with it little consequence. End
Comment.)

REDSHIRTS RALLY AGAINST EXPECTED COURT RULING
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6. (C) Over 10,000 pro-government demonstrators ("redshirts,"
affiliated with the "Truth Today" government-run television
show, and with the United Front of Democracy Against
Dictatorship -- UDD) gathered peacefully in Bangkok on
November 30 to decry a seemingly imminent ruling by the
Constitutional Court in party dissolution cases. These cases
(ref B and C) stemmed from findings by the Election
Commission and Supreme Court that executive board members of
the pro-Thaksin People's Power Party, the Chart Thai Party,
and the Matchima Thippathai Party violated election laws.
Article 237 of the 2007 Constitution provides that such
violations, if committed or even tolerated by party
executives, trigger a presumption that the party sought to
acquire state power by unconstitutional means and, therefore,
the party can be dissolved by the Constitutional Court, with
all its executives subject to a five-year ban on political
activity. (Comment: Article 237 appears not to provide the
Court with substantial discretion to spare the parties from
dissolution; our pro-Thaksin contacts are certain the Court
will dissolve PPP, whether or not the Court has leeway in
this matter. End Comment.)


7. (C) A lawyer who works closely with Thaksin spoke
pessimistically to us on December 1 about the upcoming
verdict, saying the Court had not allowed PPP to present its
evidence. (By contrast, prior to the May 2007 dissolution of
the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT),the Constitutional Tribunal
handling that case held extensive hearings, although that
took place under a different legal framework.) The PPP has
prepared a backup party for pro-Thaksin legislators, but our
contact predicted that redshirts in the North and Northeast
-- the PPP's strongholds -- would vent their frustration by
burning courthouses in those regions.

FEWER YELLOWSHIRTS IN BANGKOK
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8. (SBU) After Thais began wearing yellow a few years ago to
show support for King Bhumibol, PAD adopted the color for its
movement. (Per a longstanding tradition, Thais associate
yellow with Mondays; the King was born on a Monday.) While
many Thais with office jobs routinely wear yellow polo shirts
to work on Mondays, Embassy officers noted on December 1 a
sharp decrease in the number of "yellowshirts" in central
Bangkok. MFA staff separately remarked to us on the notable
drop-off in yellow. (Comment: We believe this decrease
reflects widespread dismay with the PAD's closure of the
airports. End Comment.)

PAD INSPIRING AUTO UNION PROTEST
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9. (C) PAD's protest tactics may have inspired union
employees at a foreign automobile facility in Rayong,
Thailand. A Ford Motor Company executive contacted the

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Embassy on December 1 to inform us that, after a breakdown of
talks over compensation, union employees blockaded the
AutoAlliance Thailand (AAT) plant throughout the day on
November 27. (AutoAlliance Thailand is a joint venture of
Ford and Mazda.) Although employees were able to dribble out
of the facility, the (nonviolent) blockade continued as of
December 1; the executive also informed us that several
engines (presumably products, rather than plant equipment)
were sabotaged. AAT has closed its facility until December

8. The executive stressed that the problems between the
management and the union were not political, but he
nevertheless believed the union leaders had taken a cue from
the PAD, and he was surprised with what he considered an
inadequate response from police officials. (Note: The
Embassy reached out to a labor activist in touch with the
union; he disputed some aspects of management's view but
noted the union is "pretty militant." End Note.) The
Ambassador raised this issue with the Foreign Ministry late
December 1, and the Commercial Counselor spoke with the
Governor of Rayong, who had dispatched a Vice-Governor to the
scene.

THREAT TO SEAPORTS?
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10. (C) Separately, police officers told RSO that PAD had the
capability to follow through on recent public threats to
interfere with the functioning of Thailand's seaports; or,
PAD could disrupt the electricity supply to Bangkok. A
high-ranking MFA official told the Ambassador recently that
PAD had strong support from officials and employees in State
Owned Enterprises. An Australian diplomat told us that
retired diplomat Kasit Piromya, closely affiliated with PAD,
recently confirmed that PAD continues to contemplate
disrupting seaport operations, if necessary to further their
goals. The police do not seem to have any contingency plan
to protect the ports.

THAKSIN TO RETURN?
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11. (C) After a December 1 meeting at the MFA (septel),MFA
Permanent Secretary Virasakdi Futrakul in a private
pull-aside told the Ambassador that Thaksin was in Cambodia,
meeting with Hun Sen. Virasakdi said Thaksin might try to
cross into Thailand on December 2. (Comment: It was not
clear what Thaksin would do in Thailand or how long he would
stay, but this would be a highly dramatic move, likely
exacerbating the current polarization. End Comment.)
JOHN