AMENDING THAILAND'S CONSTITUTION: SOLUTION OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003352

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER AND PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR TH
SUBJECT: AMENDING THAILAND'S CONSTITUTION: SOLUTION OR
PROVOCATION?

REF: A. BANGKOK 3191 (SOMCHAI AIMS FOR AMENDMENT)

B. BANGKOK 3167 (THAKSIN CONVICTED)

C. BANGKOK 3006 (CONTEMPLATING REFORM)

D. BANGKOK 1619 (CONFLICT OVER AMENDMENT)

E. BANGKOK 609 (CODEL PRICE MEETINGS)

F. 07 BANGKOK 5225 (LUNCH WITH ABHISIT)

G. 07 BANGKOK 4981 (MEETING WITH BANHARN)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b and d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
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1. (C) The governing coalition is pursuing constitutional
reform, although this prospect may again energize
anti-government protests. The governing coalition's public
statements on this topic have focused on procedural rather
than substantive issues. We have heard that former Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra believes his allies can use the
amendment process to provide him with a form of amnesty,
enabling him to return to Thailand without facing
imprisonment. Ongoing amendment efforts will likely take
months and could easily be interrupted by political turmoil.
If the parliament does ratify constitutional amendments, a
new election would likely ensue, although elections could
take place earlier, irrespective of the amendment process.


2. (C) Comment: The anti-government People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) came out in force in the spring when
then-Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej suggested amending the
constitution, but the PAD's long occupation of Government
House may have eroded somewhat its ability to manipulate
public sentiment. Many professional politicians have a stake
in some sort of amendment; even the Democrat Party, which
opposes the government's current effort, has previously said
elements of the 2007 constitution should be revised. We do
not doubt that Thaksin hopes that his surrogates will use
constitutional reform to benefit him personally. His best
chance of success may be to minimize public attention to this
aspect until after the process has acquired momentum and
legitimacy. End Summary and Comment.

BACKGROUND ON CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
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3. (C) The People's Power Party (PPP) and its coalition
allies have made clear their intention to amend the 2007
constitution, which was drafted by an assembly established by
the leaders of the 2006 coup d'etat. Prime Minister Somchai
Wongsawat recently told the Ambassador that he aimed to move
Thailand toward "genuine democracy" through an amendment
process (ref A). Even prior to the December 2007 election,
Democrat Party Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva and Chart Thai Party
Leader Banharn Silapa-Archa -- who at the time was not
aligned with PPP -- had told the then-Ambassador that they
believed some type of constitutional reform would be
necessary (ref F and G).


4. (C) In both pre-election (ref F) and post-election (ref E)
remarks, Abhisit focused on revising the unusual hybrid
nature of the Senate. Other political party leaders have
been more concerned with the destabilizing Article 237, which
requires the dissolution of a political party and the
five-year disenfranchisement of its entire executive board in
the event that a member of that board violates election laws.
Ongoing cases that threaten to dissolve PPP, Chart Thai, and
the Matchima Thippathai are proceeding in accordance with
Article 237.


5. (C) Earlier this year, PPP also made clear its intention
to reconsider article 309, which deemed constitutional any
acts that were taken in accordance with the 2006 interim
constitution, which was put forth by the coup leaders within
two weeks of the coup. Article 309 has been widely
interpreted as providing both amnesty for the 2006 coup
leaders and legal cover for the Asset Examination Committee
(AEC),the anti-corruption body that the military established

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to build indictments against former Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra.


6. (C) When, in the spring, then-Prime Minister Samak
Sundaravej appeared intent on pushing for constitutional
amendment (ref D),the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
began energetic street protests against this plan. While PAD
has put forward its own concept of "new politics" for
revising Thailand's system of governance (ref C),PAD leaders
have repeatedly made it clear that they staunchly oppose any
constitutional amendment process led by the PPP. The
Democrat Party also currently opposes a PPP-led amendment
process, with some of its officials expressing public concern
that PPP's efforts would be self-serving and engender
instability.

NOW CONSIDERING MODALITIES
--------------


7. (C) PPP and its coalition partners are currently focusing
on the procedural way forward. They have proposed amending
only article 291, which specifies the modalities for
amendment. This single revision would pave the way for
creation of a new constitutional drafting assembly that would
then propose more comprehensive substantive revisions. The
composition and mandate of the drafting assembly remain
uncertain, but it appears likely that, as PM Somchai
indicated to the Ambassador (ref A),the assembly would
include many figures elected for this purpose and resemble
the body that drafted the 1997 constitution. Somchai also
said he envisioned a new legislative election following
amendment, although he is not precluded from dissolving the
parliament and holding a new election under the current
constitution, irrespective of amendment processes.


8. (C) We expect the legislature to consider a motion on the
amendment of article 291 in the coming weeks, but not before
the November 16 conclusion of funeral rites for King
Bhumibol's elder sister, who died in January. Public
speculation has indicated that the work of the drafting
assembly would take many months, as was the case in both 2007
and 1997. Both the near-term amendment of article 291 and
the longer-term work of the (still notional) drafting
assembly appear vulnerable to disruption by PAD-led protests.

OPENING THE DOOR TO THAKSIN'S RETURN
--------------


9. (C) A member of Thaksin's legal team, Manida "Micky"
Zinmerman (strictly protect),told us on October 31 that
Thaksin believed that a constitutional amendment process
would enable him to return to Thailand without having to face
imprisonment for his recent conviction (ref B). She
envisioned that the amendment process would nullify all court
cases prepared by the Asset Examination Committee, whether
pending or completed. When asked why this provision would
not simply lead to the same sort of vehement demonstrations
that the PAD had conducted against constitutional amendment
in the spring, Micky said the PAD could also receive a
benefit, in the form of amnesty for its (still ongoing)
illegal occupation of the Government House compound. She
added that the pro-Thaksin side was now determined to force
the amendment process forward, even if the PAD were to
object. Micky said that Thaksin hoped to return to Thailand
in 2009, although she believed a two-year timeframe was more
likely.
JOHN