Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK3143
2008-10-17 10:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAI PRIME MINISTER SOMCHAI DISREGARDS ARMY

Tags:  PGOV KDEM ASEC CASC MOPS TH 
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O 171020Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4739
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 6426
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1116
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RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 9113
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1763
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI PRIORITY 5722
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003143 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER, LAN TRUONG
PACOM PLEASE PASS AMB. JOHN, A/S HILL, DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC CASC MOPS TH
SUBJECT: THAI PRIME MINISTER SOMCHAI DISREGARDS ARMY
COMMANDER'S SUGGESTION HE RESIGN

REF: A. BANGKOK 3119 (NO COUP)

B. BANGKOK 3071 (OCTOBER 10 UPDATE)

BANGKOK 00003143 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4
(b, d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
-------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003143

SIPDIS

NSC FOR DENNIS WILDER, LAN TRUONG
PACOM PLEASE PASS AMB. JOHN, A/S HILL, DAS MARCIEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC CASC MOPS TH
SUBJECT: THAI PRIME MINISTER SOMCHAI DISREGARDS ARMY
COMMANDER'S SUGGESTION HE RESIGN

REF: A. BANGKOK 3119 (NO COUP)

B. BANGKOK 3071 (OCTOBER 10 UPDATE)

BANGKOK 00003143 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4
(b, d).

SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat on October 17
declined to resign, called for public unity in advance of
upcoming events of national importance, and he called for the
public to await an independent commission's report on the
violent confrontation between police and protesters on
October 7. Somchai's press conference followed Army
Commander Anupong Paojinda's public remarks on October 16
that Somchai should resign to take responsibility for the
October 7 clash. A close Thaksin associate told the Charge
d'Affaires that no benefit would ensue were Somchai to
resign; this contact implied the Queen was trying to create
conditions conducive to a coup. A palace official associated
with the Queen hinted at significant developments to come.
Hundreds of anti-government protesters held a peaceful rally
in central Bangkok on the morning of October 17.


2. (C) Comment: Somchai made his public remarks in a modest
and non-confrontational manner. Nevertheless, he clearly
indicated his intent to allow appropriate procedures to run
their course and to disregard Anupong's suggestion that he
resign. Anupong may have hoped he could ameliorate the
current polarized political environment by nudging Somchai
from office. With Somchai refusing to step down, the key
questions looking forward appear to be whether the People's
Alliance for Democracy (PAD) will attempt to precipitate more
violence, how much harder royalist associates are willing to
push, and whether Anupong will continue to resist pressures
to drag the military back into politics. End Summary and
Comment.

PM NOT STEPPING DOWN, CALLS FOR UNITY
--------------


3. (SBU) Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat, flanked by leading
members of the governing coalition, held a press conference

on the afternoon of October 17 to explain his perspective on
recent events in the wake of calls by military leaders for
him to resign. Somchai stressed that the constitution
obliged him to present his administration's policies at the
parliament, and it was in order to facilitate this
requirement that the police had confronted protesters
blocking access to the parliament on October 7. Somchai
explained that an independent commission was investigating
the clash, and it was important to await the results of the
commission's work. Noting that his administration consisted
of democratically elected representatives of the people,
Somchai called for national unity in advance of important
upcoming events, including the upcoming funeral ceremonies
for the King's elder sister (mid-November),celebrations of
the King's birthday (early December),and the ASEAN summit
(mid December). Somchai said the best way forward would be
to proceed with constitutional reform, indicating new
elections could take place after amendment.

ANUPONG SUGGESTED GOVERNMENT RESIGNATION
--------------

4.", S]xQctober
7 violent clash between PAD protesters and police: "If the
government orders (police use of force that appeared
excessive),it must take responsibility. This (statement) is
not meant to pressure the government, but someone has to show
responsibility. No one can stay in a pool of blood."
Anupong went on to say that, were he the current Prime

BANGKOK 00003143 002.2 OF 002


Minister, he would resign.

THAKSIN INSIDER: NO POINT IN SOMCHAI QUITTING
--------------


5. (C) Charge spoke with Thaksin loyalist Yongyuth
Tiyapairath on October 17. Yongyuth stressed there was
nothing to be gained from PM Somchai resigning in the face of
pressure from his critics, as this step would not resolve the
social conflict in Thailand. Charge asked whether Yongyuth
anticipated a military coup. Yongyuth vaguely implied that
Queen Sirikit was trying to create an environment conducive
to such an event, but stated that no one wanted a coup.
Yongyuth recommended, as Somchai did, waiting for the results
of the investigation into the events of October 7.

ROYALIST HINTS AT DRAMA TO COME
--------------


6. (C) Anuporn Kashemsant, a foreign liaison officer for the
Queen in the Principal Private Secretary's office, remarked
to us October 17 that various political maneuvers were
ongoing. He said "a coup like what happened September 19,
2006 is not one of the options" for resolving Thailand's
political crisis, because the military had proven it was
incapable of running the country. His qualification evoked
the remark of former Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun on
October 16 (ref A) to Charge that there would not be "a coup
in the traditional sense of the word." Anuporn hinted that
significant developments likely would take place in the
coming days, but refused to predict what might occur, beyond
saying there were two possible paths forward.

ANTI-GOVERNMENT RALLY
--------------


7. (SBU) Members of the PAD held an anti-government rally in
central Bangkok on the morning of October 17, handing out
VCDs and booklets charging the police with having "killed the
people" on October 7. We observed the rally, which was
peaceful and at times festive. Very few police officials
were in close proximity to the demonstration, although they
told us riot police stood in reserve nearby. The police and
protesters showed no sign of antagonism. Police estimated
the crowd size at 500-600.
ENTWISTLE