Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK2720
2008-09-10 10:44:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH THAI POLITICAL AND BUSINESS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9380
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #2720/01 2541044
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 101044Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4279
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 6316
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 9010
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 4877
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1021
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 2404
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 5614
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002720 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH THAI POLITICAL AND BUSINESS
LEADERS IN WAKE OF COURT DECISION AGAINST PM SAMAK

REF: BANGKOK 2691 (AND THE VERDICT IS . . .GUILTY)

BANGKOK 00002720 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, REASON 1.4 (B, D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002720

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH THAI POLITICAL AND BUSINESS
LEADERS IN WAKE OF COURT DECISION AGAINST PM SAMAK

REF: BANGKOK 2691 (AND THE VERDICT IS . . .GUILTY)

BANGKOK 00002720 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, REASON 1.4 (B, D)


1. (C) Summary: Ambassador John met with political and
business leaders in the wake of the September 9
Constitutional Court decision against Prime Minister Samak
Sundaravej to ascertain developments and to continue to urge
for a peaceful and legal resolution of the current standoff.
A consensus appeared to be emerging among the PPP-led
coalition September 10 not to renominate Samak as PM, a
reversal of the PPP's public position from the day before
immediately after the Court announced its civil verdict
against Samak. Coalition parties seem to have agreed that
the next PM should come from the PPP, though some openly
oppose Samak. The PPP itself likewise appeared split
September 10, with the northeast faction under Newin Chidchob
backing Samak and the northern faction supporting DPM Somchai
Wongsawat, ex-PM Thaksin's brother-in-law. A possible
compromise is current Minister of Justice Somphong
Amornwiwat. Thai and international business leaders remain
concerned that the political gridlock is adversely affecting
both short- and medium-term prospects in Thailand. The
consistent USG message from Washington and Embassy Bangkok
that there should be a peaceful and legal solution to the
ongoing political crisis appears to be gaining traction.


2. (C) Comment: The PPP appears to have realized that Samak
is now a far greater liability than asset. His short history
with the party, and the likelihood that he will be convicted
for libel on September 25 (a criminal offense which would
remove him from politics entirely and land him in jail, based
on many prior libel convictions that were suspended
sentences),means that only a handful of allies now are
willing to fight for his premiership for their own short-term
gains.


3. (C) Comment, cont.: Instead, the party appears more likely
to go with Somphong rather than Somchai or PPP Secretary

General Suraphong Suebwonglee, two DPMs who carry their own
baggage: as Thaksin's brother-in-law, Somchai would be an
easy target for the PAD and anti-Thaksin forces; Suraphong
faces his own legal action in a lottery case dating back to
the Thaksin era. Somphong would offer a bridge between two
PPP camps; he is associated with the northern faction led by
Thaksin's sister/Somchai wife Yawopha, but is someone who has
been a long-time friend of Newin. Intense political
horsetrading likely will precede the final PPP decision,
which could yet surprise. Coup rumors have diminished
markedly, but remain a remote option should a political
solution not emerge. Ambassador and Emboffs will continue to
engage at every level to reiterate our message for a
peaceful, legal political solution to the current crisis.
End Summary and Comment.

Ground shifts from under Samak
--------------


4. (SBU) Thailand's political waters swirled with uncertainty
September 10 in the wake of the Constitutional Court civil
ruling September 9 forcing Samak Sundaravej to resign as PM
(reftel). Samak's ruling PPP party spokesmen offered early
rhetorical support for Samak to return as PM, saying that
both the PPP and coalition parties would continue to back
Samak. However, chances for his path back to office seemed
to dim September 10, even as House speaker Chai Chidchob
confirmed that voting on a new PM would be held September 12.



5. (C) PPP Secretary General Suraphong told Ambassador
September 10 at Suraphong's Ministry of Treasury office that
the PPP would meet September 11 to make a decision about its
nomination for the next prime minister. After beginning
with: "at this time Samak seems most appropriate for the
present situation," Suraphong proceeded to undercut Samak's
chances. Acknowledging faction discussions, he said "we are
trying to listen to all voices." Samak's reappointment would
be very controversial in the media and the opposition, "a

BANGKOK 00002720 002.2 OF 003


factor we are taking into account." Suraphong chuckled and
nodded when Ambassador raised Samak's likely conviction for
libel on September 25, noting: "we are taking that into
account as well." Suraphong and other PPP leaders visited
Chat Thai (CT) leader Banhan earlier September 10; Banhan had
committed CT to a new PPP-led coalition under the PM of PPP's
choosing, said Suraphong.


6. (C) The Ambassador told Suraphong that the USG position
remained clear: we support a peaceful and legal solution to
the current crisis. Suraphong agreed, noting that the
possibility of a coup apparently was no longer being
discussed seriously by the military.


7. (C) Puea Paen Din (PPD) party leader Suwit Khunkitti told
Ambassador September 10 at PPD headquarters that the PPP
appeared split over whom to support as the next PM.
Influential northeast faction leader Newin Chidchob, son of
the House Speaker, backed Samak, because Newin had
"unfinished business" with the current budget that required
Samak to return. Northern MPs, under the leadership of
Yawopha Wongsawat, sister of ex-PM Thaksin and wife of
current DPM Somchai, were backing Somchai. Suwit said that
Samak's return would be "a disaster," and saw Somchai as too
controversial; "if Samak was (Thaksin's) nominee; Somchai is
family."


8. (C) Instead, Justice Minister Somphong appeared to be a
more logical PPP nominee in Suwit's view, though he warned
that Thaksin was still trying to control PPP dynamics behind
the scenes. Noting the Supreme Court would announce a
decision in the Ratchadapisek land case involving Thaksin on
September 17, Suwit said public sentiment regarding Thaksin
and his ability to control PPP might shift thereafter. PPD
held its faction meeting immediately after Ambassador left;
Suwit predicted PPD would endorse a strong "no Samak"
statement as part of its conditions to join a new PPP-led
coalition. The Ambassador reiterated the same message he had
given Suraphong. Suwit agreed, although he noted that the
option of a coup could reappear should the current deadlock
remain unresolved.

Political Crisis Impact on Business
--------------


9. (C) Ambassador and visiting DAS Scot Marciel met with CP
executive Sarasin Viraphong September 9 at the Residence to
discuss the impact the political crisis has had on business
and the economy. Sarasin said that Thai businesses are more
concerned in the short and medium term than foreign
investors; because Thai businesses can more easily deploy
their capital abroad, they are doing so. For instance, CP
Group, Thailand's largest multinational built around
agribusiness, is putting its investments outside Thailand,
including Russia, Indonesia, and Vietnam.


10. (C) Separately, an American businessman told Ambassador
Sept. 9 that several leading five star hotels are down to
15-20 percent occupancy, with a commensurate drop-off for
restaurants and related industries. DPM Suraphong, voicing
frustration about the lack of an easy way to resolve the
standoff with the PAD, also emphasized the downside to the
economy: "if we change the rules every time there is a
protest or demonstration, who will want to invest in
Thailand?" Thai and international media have suggested the
economic losses due to the political crisis may top $1
billion.


11. (C) Sarasin believed that Thai business leaders should be
approaching both ruling and opposition leadership to stress
the damage the political dispute is doing to the economy, but
business leaders seemed reluctant to raise their voices.
Ambassador also has urged Thai political leaders in all of
his meetings throughout this crisis to consider the adverse
effect the political deadlock is having on the Thai business
environment. Sarasin also noted that businesses do not see
any particular political force as more advantageous to the
business environment, suggesting a tough road ahead no matter

BANGKOK 00002720 003.2 OF 003


what government emerges.
JOHN