THAI PROTEST UPDATE: POLICE UNABLE TO TAKE CONTROL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002593

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU, DRL FOR BUCKLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR CASC TH
SUBJECT: THAI PROTEST UPDATE: POLICE UNABLE TO TAKE CONTROL
AS PAD SEIZES THE INITIATIVE

REF: A. BANGKOK 2575 (WARRANTS BUT NO ARRESTS)

B. BANGKOK 2555 (POLICE AND PAD COEXIST)

C. BANGKOK 2546 (PAD PROTESTS CHALLENGE PM SAMAK)

D. BANGKOK 2405 (TENSIONS ESCALATE AT THAI PROTESTS)

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary and Comment:


1. (C) The stand-off between the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) and the administration of Prime Minster Samak
Sundaravej continued for the fourth day August 29, with the
dynamics changing dramatically during the day. The police,
which continued to refrain from using force, seemed by
mid-day on the verge of establishing an effective cordon
around the Government House compound occupied by the PAD.
However, when a column of PAD supporters surged out the front
gate and pushed aggressively at the riot police line at 1500
local time, police withdrew rather than standing their
ground, losing their chance to keep the protest contained.
Several additional worker unions came out in support of the
PAD's protest, while a work stoppage by the railway union
shut down the state railway system, and a number of regional
airports shut down around the country. Thailand enters the
weekend apprehensive that the situation may be spinning out
of control.


2. (C) Comment: Samak and his government have continued to
exercise patience in their approach to the protests. Early
on August 29, PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul called for
supporters to hang on in the Government House compound, until
August 31, suggesting an exit strategy may still be available
for both the PAD and the government. While the government's
restraint has won praise from the public and the media
through August 29, it is unclear if the government will be
able to manage public opinion if it continues to allow the
PAD and worker unions to hobble government and the
transportation routes. The events of the afternoon will lead
many to see the Samak government teetering between two
unpalatable choices: capitulation to the PAD mob, or resort
to force to restore order, something Samak has continually
vowed until this point not to do. End Summary and Comment.

POLICE UNABLE TO MAINTAIN CONTROL AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE
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3. (U) Tension between the PAD and the government of PM Samak
heightened August 29. The PAD overnight prevented the
incoming police contingent in the normal middle-of-the-night
police shift change from entering the Government House
compound. This reduced the total number of police still on
the compound from 2000 to probably no more than 250-400. PAD
leaders continued to challenge the government and ignore
court orders to vacate Government House. Sondhi Limthongkul
publicly called on PAD supporters to hold out until Sunday,
August 31, while co-leader Chamlong Srimuang challenged the
police to clear the compound sooner rather than later.


4. (U) Around 11:00 am on August 29, officers of the Civil
Court, with the assistance of a large number of police,
posted warrants for the eviction of protesters from the
Government House compound at various locations near the
compound, and started forming a cordon to isolate access to
the compound. Minor skirmishes between protesters and police
broke out at various places, particularly as 300 riot police
forced their way through a back gate onto the compound, and
television feed showed some protesters at the first aid
stations with blood on their shirts. The Ministry of Public
Health's Medical Emergency Center told us that as of midday
there had been approximately ten or twenty injuries, but only
two or three serious enough to require hospital treatment.


5. (U) Despite police statements that they were going to
establish an external cordon outside Government House, PAD
supporters continued to stream into the compound. Provincial
police forces brought in to assist with the crowd control
appeared tired and uneasy, and ultimately proved unable to
fulfill PM Samak's order to establish a cordon around

BANGKOK 00002593 002 OF 002


Government House.


6. (U) In the decisive development of the day, PAD supporters
surged out of the compound at 1500 towards their traditional
rallying point, Matthawan Bridge, about five hundred meters
away. This area had previously been cleared of protesters
and secured by the police, but rather than holding their
line, the police instead made an orderly retreat, abandoning
efforts to form a complete cordon around the compound. Later
reports indicated that police abandoned many established
checkpoints and withdrew to the Metropolitan Police Bureau.

TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS HOBBLED
--------------


7. (U) After two days of action solely in Bangkok, the PAD
activated its provincial strategy again overnight. Workers
from state-owned railway union started a work stoppage,
stopping forty-one trains from the northeast, south, and
northern parts of the country which normally would have come
to Bangkok. The industrial action shut down all train
service in Thailand by mid day August 29. Following calls
from PAD leaders to block regional airports, PAD
demonstrators completely shutdown regional airports
throughout the country, including major tourist hubs such as
Phuket and Chiang Mai.


8. (U) The industrial action appears poised to spread; the
State Enterprise Workers' Union resolved to join the PAD
demonstrations starting the evening of August 29, which
should significantly boost the number of demonstrators. Thai
International Airways Workers' Union suggested to its members
that they take a sick day in protest of police actions.
Other government workers' unions are reportedly considering
work stoppages or similar actions.

SAMAK REMAINS PATIENT BUT FOR HOW LONG?
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9. (C) Despite the ongoing protests and the actions taken by
the PAD and labor unions, Samak and the government continued
to exercise restraint. The question heading into the weekend
is: for how long? Arsa Sarasin, the King's Personal Private
Secretary, told Ambassador late August 29 that he was worried
something significant would happen over the weekend; the
latest developments, he lamented, made Samak look like the
government was losing control of the situation. Arsa
debunked PAD claims of royal support: "The King and Queen are
not involved in these things."


10. (U) We are issuing a consular warden message shortly.
JOHN