THAI PROTEST UPDATE: POLICE AND PAD PEACEFULLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002555

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR TH
SUBJECT: THAI PROTEST UPDATE: POLICE AND PAD PEACEFULLY
COEXIST AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE WHILE PAD LEADERS FACE ARREST

REF: A. BANGKOK 2546 (PAD PROTESTS CHALLENGE PM SAMAK)

B. BANGKOK 2405 (TENSIONS ESCALATE AT THAI PROTESTS)

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary and Comment:


1. (SBU) One day after demonstrations and the seizure of
government buildings by the People's Alliance for Democracy
(PAD) shook the Thai political scene (Ref A),Prime Minister
Samak and the Thai police reached an uneasy temporary
accommodation August 27 with the anti-government
demonstrators seeking Samak's removal. A large crowd of PAD
demonstrators continued to occupy the Government House
compound, and police overnight reinforced their contingent on
the compound with riot police in full gear, but the two sides
remained separated physically. PM Samak continued to operate
out of the Royal Thai Armed Forces Headquarters on the
outskirts of the city. Police leaders said they were waiting
a court decision on arrest warrants prior to taking action
against the PAD leaders and their supporters. Domestic
reaction in the Thai media was uniformly critical of the PAD
assault on a government-run TV station August 26; in
contrast, it praised the restraint shown by PM Samak and
security forces in not overreacting, though the media
rejected Samak's call for Thai to "take sides."


2. (C) Comment: While there is little doubt that PAD had
hoped to provoke conflict, the Thai government and police
have so far pursued a passive posture with the apparent
intent to avoid confrontation. Army Commander Anupong made
clear to the Ambassador August 27 that the military was
staying out of politics and the current showdown. Late on
August 27, the police pushed back their deadline request for
the PAD to leave the compound to Saturday August 30, citing a
royally-sponsored ceremony planned to be held on the grounds
that day; since the PAD vowed a minimum three day occupation
of the compound, there remains time and room for compromise.
The attempted execution of arrest warrants could prove to be
a decisive point in this round of anti-government protests,
however, as it remains unclear how PAD supporters would react
if the police tried to arrest their leaders; firebrand Sondhi
Limthongkul claimed he could not be arrested without the use
of force. Ambassador will see PM Samak August 28. End
summary and comment.

STANDOFF AT GOVERNMENT HOUSE CONTINUES
--------------


3. (SBU) The Royal Thai Police (RTP) and the Peoples Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) reached a temporary accommodation August
27 in their standoff after mass demonstrations the previous
day (reftel A). The police sent reinforcements into the
grounds of the Government House, the formal seat of
government, at 3 a.m.; estimates as of the afternoon of
August 27 put police numbers at 2,000 to 2,500 and PAD
demonstrators at 16,000 to 18,000. The PAD and police had
negotiated terms to share the compound, with the two sides
physically separated by structures on the grounds; most of
the riot police were not in sight at mid-day, with only 20-30
regular police standing near the office building normally
used by the PM. Police spokesman MGEN Suraphol reconfirmed
to us that the police would not use force to clear the
compound.

ARREST WARRANTS TO BE EXECUTED?
--------------


4. (SBU) There are indications, however, that the police will
act sometime in the near future. Suraphol told us police
commanders were waiting for a court to issue arrest warrants
for PAD leaders, based on the events of August 26, before
pursuing possible actions against the PAD. Possible charges
against the leaders include inciting a crowd, illegally
entering government buildings, and others.


5. (SBU) The leaders of the movement may thus soon face a
choice of forcefully resisting arrest or to be seen as giving

BANGKOK 00002555 002 OF 002


up to the police and Samak government. Major General (ret.)
Chamlong Srimuang and Sondhi Limthongkul, the primary public
leaders of the PAD, indicated they would choose widely
divergent actions if faced with police arrest. Chamlong
publicly said he would not resist arrest, while Sondhi
continued to dare the police to try to arrest him. In the
meantime, PAD leaders have publicly designated a team of nine
activists to replace the nine leaders who potentially face
arrest.

HAS PAD OVERPLAYED ITS HAND?
--------------


6. (SBU) Local media coverage turned decidedly against the
PAD August 27. The seizure of NBT (reftel A) by PAD
supporters was almost universally described as an affront to
press freedom and a movement away from the professed PAD goal
of salvaging Thai democracy. Editorials in the August 27
editions of prominent Thai- and English-language newspapers
criticized the PAD for its actions and called on all sides to
use restraint. Thai Rath, the most widely-read Thai-language
newspaper, voiced concerns that the PAD would lose its
ability to control its supporters and that the government
might be forced to resort to force to control the situation.
Other newspapers praised police and military restraint, while
criticizing Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej for potentially
adding fuel to an already enflamed situation by making
offensive remarks about PAD supporters and for his call for
the Thai people to take sides in the conflict.

MILITARY GIVES SAMAK AN OFFICE, SAYS NO COUP
--------------


7. (SBU) According to press reports, Prime Minister Samak
continued to operate out of the Royal Thai Armed Forces
Headquarters, which is approximately twenty-five kilometers
from central Bangkok. The Thai military remained quiet, with
Air Force Commander-in-Chief Air Chief Marshall Chalit
Pukbhasuk, a member of the now defunct Council for National
Security which included the leaders of the September 2006
coup, insisting that the military would not conduct a coup to
relieve the current political tension.
JOHN