PAD PROTESTS CHALLENGE PM SAMAK'S AUTHORITY, PATIENCE

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SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU, DRL FOR BUCKLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR TH
SUBJECT: PAD PROTESTS CHALLENGE PM SAMAK'S AUTHORITY, PATIENCE

REF: BANGKOK 2405 (TENSIONS ESCALATE AT THAI STREET PROTESTS)

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CLASSIFIED BY: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JAMES F. ENTWISTLE, REASON 1.4
(B) AND (D)

Summary and Comment:


1. (C) Prime Minister Samak's coalition government on August 26 faced
one of the biggest challenges to its authority since it took over the
reins of power last January, not from the formal parliamentary
opposition or the courts, but from the streets. As of late
afternoon, large crowds of demonstrators from the Peoples Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) occupied the Government House compound that is
the Prime Minister/Government's official seat of power, along with
several ministries. PAD leader Sonthi Limthongkun appears to be
pushing hard for a confrontation, daring security forces to attack
him and his supporters. However, Thai police have maintained a
passive presence at most venues, avoiding confrontation, and royal
Thai Armed forces Supreme Commander General Boonsang Niampradit
insisted there would be no coup regardless of the demonstrations.


2. (C) Whether this is a last gasp effort by the PAD to provoke a
response by security forces that will topple the government, or part
of a more sustained effort at pressuring the Prime Minister into
dissolving the House remain unclear at the end of the first day of
the latest PAD street actions. While authorities allowed the PAD to
take over the Government House compound August 26, that is not a
situation that can be sustained indefinitely as Sonthi and Samak wage
a war of nerves. The form the government/security reaction
eventually takes will shape the political future of both the PAD and
Prime Minister Samak's government. End summary and comment.

PAD goes on the offensive
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3. (SBU) In the latest twist in Thailand's on-going political drama,
the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD) staged a mass demonstration
in Bangkok and strategic points around the country in a what some
press sources are reporting as a last bid show-down with the Peoples
Power Party (PPP) led government of Samak Sundaravej. Kraisak
Choonhaven, Democrat party MP and deputy party leader, told us that
the PAD leaders had laid out their intentions to him late August 25;
the PAD hoped to provoke clashes with the police, leading to enough
violence and government overreaction to spark military
intervention/another coup.


4. (U) The day's activities got off to an unexpected start early on
August 26 when some 80 to 100 PAD supporters attempted to take
control of the government-run NTB television station between 0430 and

0530. Although Royal Thai Police units responded and arrested a
large number of the demonstrators (press reports indicate between 60
and 80),control of the NTB compound and the quality of the
transmission varied throughout the day.


5. (SBU) In the end, it appeared the NTB showdown was only the first
incident in a series of determined PAD attempts to provoke PM Samak
and security forces into a direct confrontation. With surprising
efficiency, the PAD executed simultaneous marches on the Ministries
of Education, Finance, Agriculture and Transportation, as well as the
Government House compound which is the formal seat of the PM and the
government. By 1500 they had occupied these ministries and the
Government House compound. We have no reliable way to verify the
number of demonstrators involved in the day's events; police sources
put the number of PAD participants at around 35,000, while two
papers, Khao Sot and Kom Chat Lued, estimated the crowd at 100,000,
telling us that police were purposefully undercounting the number of
protestors.

RTG refuses to take the bait
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6. (SBU) From the beginning of the day, police officials like MGEN
Surapol Tuanthong told us that they were aware of the PAD's
intentions to provoke conflict and had adopted a passive posture
intended to avoid confrontation. After the provocative takeovers of
government properties, Prime Minister Samak announced in a
mid-afternoon press conference after a Cabinet meeting (held at
Supreme Command where Samak, also Defense Minister, set up shop
rather than remain at Government House) that he would be patient over

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the PAD effort to topple his government, calling on demonstrators to
leave Government House and putting Interior Minister Kowit in charge
of restoring order. Samak declined, however, to invoke the Emergency
Decree. As of 18:15 PM Samak, in a press briefing, said 80
demonstrators had been arrested and warrants had been issued for the
five PAD leaders.


7. (U) While early press reports indicated Army Commander-in-Chief
Anupong Paochinda had ordered commanders of the armed forces to
prepare to support the police if necessary, should the government
decide to invoke emergency measures to restore order, throughout the
day the Army clarified that they saw no reason for military
intervention. RTARF Supreme Commander General Boonsang Niampradit
insisted the military would not stage a coup or intervene, despite
the possibility of violence at PAD rallies.


8. (SBU) While Samak was speaking at the Supreme Command, PAD leader
Sonthi delivered his own statement on a stage the PAD had erected on
the grounds of Government House. Sonthi vowed he would stay until
there was a change in government and challenged the government to a
fight. He dared the government to use force to end the occupation of
the Government House compound and urged his followers to "fight until
the end."

Democrats wring hand on the sidelines
--------------


9. (C) Isra Sunthornvut, Secretary to the Leadership of the
Opposition in the House, told us that he believed the August 26
demonstrations signaled the end of the PAD. He said there was some
chance that the PAD could gain some political capital for appearing
as though they were the only ones standing up against the government,
but he assessed their only real hope was if Samak did something
"stupid." Isra said that while the Democratic Party did not support
the PAD in this effort, the PAD rally had put them in an awkward
position. In the end, Isra said, the PAD was playing into the
government's hands by demonstrating to the rest of the country that
the PAD really stood for chaos and instability.


10. (U) The consular section is following the situation closely and
so far has no indication that Amcits are at risk as a result of
today's events.
John