TENSIONS ESCALATE AT THAI STREET PROTESTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002405

SIPDIS

DRL FOR BUCKLEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2018
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PINS ASEC TH
SUBJECT: TENSIONS ESCALATE AT THAI STREET PROTESTS

REF: BANGKOK 02344 (FURTHER LESE MAJESTE)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Increased tension at ongoing
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) rallies across Thailand
resulted in numerous clashes between PAD supporters and
pro-government groups in July. Following the recent outbreak
of violence at a July 24 rally in Udon Thani province, the
Royal Thai Army and Air Force offered protection to assist
police at the demonstration sites. Meanwhile, the press
denied earlier reports of a fatality at the PAD rally in Udon
Thani, although a PAD leader suggested that a PAD guard may
have died. A PAD co-leader publicly threatened large
demonstrations in order to prevent a government-led effort to
amend the constitution. The People's Power Party (PPP)-led
government proposed a bill that grants the police the
authority to supervise or dissolve public protests -- the
most stringent proposal to date regarding the regulation of
rallies -- though a government whip withdrew the draft August
6, acknowledging it required more review.


2. (C) Comment: While the Democrat Party serves as the
parliamentary opposition, PAD has been the principal
organizer of street protests against the government.
Thaksin's ongoing court cases, as well as government efforts
to amend the constitution, may well generate further
political tension, demonstrations, and
counter-demonstrations. It is unclear whether either side in
the polarized environment believes its interests would be
served by significant shows of popular unrest, but we will
continue to monitor closely the political climate and the
actions of both government and private security elements
associated with the street protesters. End Summary and
Comment.

PAD RALLIES PRONE TO VIOLENCE
--------------


3. (C) From March until June, there were periodic scuffles at
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) rally sites in Bangkok
and northeastern Thailand. (Note: PAD is an anti-government
group that formed several years ago to oppose then-Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. End Note.) Such incidents
became more frequent in the month of July. No major injuries
were reported until a July 23 rally in Maha Sarakham
province, at which a leading PAD member suffered a head
injury from a thrown rock. According to media reports,
clashes in July escalated, with anti-PAD groups dismantling
PAD stages or burning them down.


4. (C) On July 25, local media reported on a fatality at a
July 24 PAD rally in Udon Thani in which, according to local
press, a large anti-PAD mob attacked the rally, wielding
knives, axes and clubs, and destroying the PAD stage. A PAD
security guard allegedly died from an axe blow to the head
during a clash with anti-PAD protesters. The assailants were
identified as members of the previously unknown Khon Rak Udon
(Udon-Lovers) group, led by the brother of Deputy Agriculture
Minister (and People's Power Party executive board member)
Theerachai Saenkaew.


5. (C) A PAD press release on July 25 accused the Royal Thai
police and RTG officials of conspiring with anti-PAD groups
to allow them access to attack PAD sites; PAD labeled the
alleged government negligence as a campaign of
state-sponsored brutality. The Udon Thani incident also
prompted an appeal by Human Rights Watch for the RTG to
protect opposition political rallies, as PAD leaders claimed
that the Thai police were tolerating aggressive behavior by
anti-PAD protesters. In response, the Royal Thai Army and
Air Force offered to assist police at demonstration sites.
The police have yet to accept military assistance.

ALLEGED FATALITY'S BODY MISSING
--------------


6. (C) Despite the allegations of a PAD fatality at the Udon
Thani rally, no body has been found, and neither the police

BANGKOK 00002405 002 OF 003


nor PAD members can identify the alleged victim. Security
officials of Udon Thani and Buriram provinces and an Udon
Thani Police Station official told us that the reports were
false. However, PAD co-leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon claimed to
us that "someone stole the body and dumped it," adding that
confirmation of a death would have reflected poorly on
pro-government protesters. However, he acknowledged that he
was expressing his personal suspicion, and PAD would not
formally claim a fatality until the alleged victim's
relatives reported the victim as a missing person or the body
surfaced.

PAD STOPS DISPATCHING BANGKOK GUARD UNITS
--------------


7. (C) Somkiat told us on July 25 that, even before the Udon
demonstration, PAD had decided it would no longer dispatch
Bangkok-based PAD security guards to rallies outside of
Bangkok, in particular to regions where Thaksin is popular,
such as the North and Northeast, and where the chances of a
clash are especially high. Somkiat added that many of PAD's
guards hail from southern Thailand, and they would be seen as
outsiders by the people in the North and Northeast. Somkiat
believed violent conflicts between PAD and
counter-demonstrators would reflect poorly on PAD and cause
divisions among PAD's supporters. He added that PAD
co-leader Major General (ret) Chamlong Srimuang had
responsibility for PAD's security measures.

THAKSIN CONVICTION COULD CALM PAD DOWN
--------------


8. (C) Somkiat suggested that PAD no longer called for
military intervention in political affairs and intended to
cease its rallies if the Supreme Court were to convict
Thaksin in an ongoing "abuse of power" case. Subsequent to
our meeting with Somkiat, however, another PAD co-leader,
Suriyasai Katasila, announced publicly that PAD would hold
major rallies to prevent any government-led effort to amend
the constitution. (Somkiat had also told us that PAD would
continue to work to prevent constitutional amendment.)

PPP RETALIATES WITH PROPOSALS TO REGULATE RALLIES
-------------- --------------


9. (C) The government whip withdrew a controversial bill
regulating public rallies that was scheduled for discussion
in the House on August 6, citing a need for further review of
the proposal. Over 25 MPs from the PPP had proposed a bill
to regulate public rallies under Article 63 of the
Constitution, which grants the freedom of assembly. They
claimed the bill would address public criticism of traffic
and noise disruptions caused by ongoing PAD rallies. The
bill would have authorized the Metropolitan Police Bureau in
Bangkok and provincial police chiefs to supervise public
rallies with impunity, including the right to dismantle
rallies and to imprison participants of unauthorized or
unruly protests for up to three years. PAD leaders
criticized the bill in the media, claiming it clashed with
democratic principles; PM Samak accused PAD leaders of
opposing the bill to perpetuate their disruptive rallies. On
August 8, Chusak Sirinil, Minister Attached to the Prime
Minister's Office, emphasized that Article 63 would not be
amended, but he said the government would continue to push
for stricter regulations of public gatherings.


10. (C) During an August 5 audience with the King, PM Samak
proposed a government campaign for reconciliation and
political unity that would run from August 12 (the Queen's
birthday) until December 5 (the King's birthday) and be
chaired by the Crown Prince, according to press reports. The
prospective impact of Samak's initiative on public gatherings
is unclear, but PAD supporters have complained publicly that
the reconciliation effort is a partisan ploy to put political
pressure on PAD to stop its demonstrations. Deputy
Government Spokesman Natthawut Saikua told the media that PAD
was asked to comply with the campaign and review current PAD
activities. He explained that the reconciliation campaign
would entail five major events on Bangkok's Ratchadamneon
Avenue where PAD currently holds its rallies. PAD leading

BANGKOK 00002405 003 OF 003


member Phiphop Thongchai announced on-stage at a PAD rally
that PAD would adjust its rallies as necessary, but warned
the government not to involve the monarchy in "political
games."
JOHN