COURT RULINGS CLOUD FUTURE OF SAMAK ADMINISTRATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002091

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: COURT RULINGS CLOUD FUTURE OF SAMAK ADMINISTRATION

REF: A. BANGKOK 1951 (DEBATE BEGINS)

B. BANGKOK 1878 (TEMPLE MAP APPROVED)

C. BANGKOK 608 (CASE REFERRED TO COURT)

D. BANGKOK 598 (FRAUD INVESTIGATIONS)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Supreme Court delivered a ruling on July 8 that
may enable the Constitutional Court to dissolve the People's
Power Party (PPP) and render Prime Minister Samak and other
PPP executives unable to hold government office. If PPP were
to be dissolved, this would prompt a change of
administrations but not necessarily a new legislative
election; any such action by the Constitutional Court is
likely months away. Separately, the Constitutional Court
reviewed a Thai-Cambodian Joint Communique supporting the
inscription of Preah Vihear temple on the UNESCO World
Heritage List and determined that the Communique required
parliamentary approval. The Court's determination that the
Samak administration acted contrary to the Constitution's
provisions in this matter has sparked talk of impeachment
proceedings. End Summary.

YONGYUTH DISQUALIFIED, PPP SURVIVAL AT STAKE
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2. (U) The Supreme Court on July 8 issued its ruling in the
electoral fraud case against former House Speaker Yongyuth
Tiyapairat. (Refs C and D provide further detail on
Yongyuth's infractions and the process through which the case
was filed with the Court.) The Court upheld the Election
Commission's finding that Yongyuth had violated the election
law, determining that he is ineligible to hold public office.


3. (U) Because Yongyuth held a position on the People's Power
Party (PPP) Executive Board at the time of the infraction,
the door is now open for the Constitutional Court to consider
dissolution of PPP. Article 237 of the 2007 Constitution
provides that such violations, if committed or even tolerated
by party executives, trigger a presumption that the party
sought to acquire state power by unconstitutional means and,
therefore, the party can be dissolved by the Constitutional
Court, with all its executives subject to a five-year ban on
political activity.


4. (C) Two other parties -- Chart Thai and Matchima -- are
already undergoing procedures consistent with Article 237
that risk their parties' dissolution. Their fate rests with
a joint Election Commission (EC) and Office of the Attorney
General (OAG) committee, which has been considering for
months whether to file a request for the Constitutional Court
to dissolve the parties, following disqualification of party
executives for election law violations. Based on their
experiences, we believe it will be at least two months before
the EC and OAG might decide to file a request with the
Constitutional Court for PPP's dissolution. Constitutional
Court deliberations would then likely take months more,
although it is possible that the Court would find a way to
accelerate its procedures in this case. (Supporters of
former Prime Minister Thaksin, who provides behind-the-scenes
leadership for PPP, often allege that the Court is
ill-disposed toward Thaksin and PPP; see septel on Thaksin's
legal cases.)

TEMPLE RULING INCREASES PRESSURE ON GOVERNMENT
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5. (U) Separately, the Constitutional Court ruled on July 8
that the Samak administration acted in violation of
constitutional procedures when Foreign Minister Noppadon
Pattama and Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sok An signed a
June 18 Joint Communique supporting the inscription of the
Preah Vihear temple on the UNESCO World Heritage List. (Refs
A and B provide more background on the controversy in
Thailand surrounding inscription.) The Court determined that
this Communique met the definition of a treaty found in the

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Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties: "an international
agreement concluded between States in written form and
governed by international law..."


6. (U) The Court further found that the Communique fell into
a certain category of treaties covered by Article 190 of the
2007 Constitution; it "provides for a change in the Thai
territories, the extraterritorial areas in which the Kingdom
has a sovereign right, or any jurisdictional area the Kingdom
has acquired through treaty or through international law, or
requires the enactment of an Act for its implementation, or
has extensive impacts on the country's economic and social
stability, or has significant bindings on trade, investment,
or national budget..." Therefore, the Constitution required
that the government subject the Communique/Treaty to certain
parliamentary procedures (specified in Article 190) both
prior to its conclusion and after its signing; those
procedures were not followed in this case.


7. (U) Following the Court's ruling, Democrat Party Leader
Abhisit Vejjajiva said publicly he would move for FM
Noppadon's impeachment. Senator Khamnoon Sithisaman -- a
reasonably prominent figure associated with People's Alliance
for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul (an ardent
Thaksin opponent) -- called publicly for the cabinet's
resignation and talked of pursuing criminal charges against
the Samak administration.

COMMENT
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8. (C) A Constitutional Court ruling in the PPP dissolution
case is likely many months away. Nevertheless, this looming
prospect, combined with the near-term impact of the Preah
Vihear decision, imparts a greater sense that both the party
and Samak's administration are living on borrowed time.
PPP's dissolution would necessarily result in the formation
of a new government, although it would not necessitate new
elections; PPP legislators who do not hold executive
positions in the party would be free to retain their seats in
the House, so long as they join other parties. The
pro-Thaksin camp has likely begun contingency planning to
form a new political vehicle. Recalling that PPP only gained
significance once it became the de facto principal successor
party to Thai Rak Thai (TRT),after TRT's May 2007
dissolution, we note that PPP's dissolution, by itself, would
mark a setback for -- but not necessarily the end of --
Thaksin's political influence.


9. (C) Although we have not seen the text of the Preah Vihear
ruling, we find the Court's analysis questionable, and we
note that the RTG will likely become hesitant to document any
bilateral or multilateral agreements, for fear of similar
charges arising in the future. This ruling will likely
reinforce the impression of Thaksin supporters that the Court
is ill-disposed toward Thaksin and his allies.
JOHN