ALL CLEAR FOR PARLIAMENT TO OPEN, NEW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000198

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ALL CLEAR FOR PARLIAMENT TO OPEN, NEW GOVERNMENT
TO FORM


Classified By: DCM James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Everything appears on track for the opening
of Parliament on Monday, January 21. Chart Thai and
Motherland parties have formally announced they will join the
coalition led by the People's Power Party (PPP).
Negotiations over the ministerial portfolios are ongoing; the
PPP leader is likely to be named prime minister, although
there are still rumors that this is not a done deal. A
variety of legal issues remain, including the disposition of
the case against a leading PPP member, and the threat of the
dissolution of party. However, there is concern that the ECT
and the courts will be reluctant to challenge the PPP's
interests now that it is clear PPP will form the government.
After two years of lost time, Thailand has pretty much come
full circle, with no resolution of the issues -- corruption,
political legitimacy, the role of the monarchy -- that
provoked the crisis in the first place. The same conflicts
are likely to emerge again soon, if the new government does
not do better than we expect in promoting reconciliation. END
SUMMARY.

EVERYBODY INTO THE POOL
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2. (C) Chart Thai party leader Barnharn Silpa-Archa and
Motherland party leader Suwit Khunkitti announced on January
17 that they would join the pro-Thaksin Peoples Power Party
(PPP) in the coalition government. Barnharn specifically
refused to answer questions about his party's endorsement of
the controversial PPP leader as Prime Minister, saying that
the parties have not yet discussed the allocation of
ministerial portfolios. While there is still speculation
about the fate of PPP leader Samak Sundaravej, most think he
is likely to be named PM. The current back room negotiations
seem to have moved to debate over the Defense Minister slot,
with calls for the coalition to name a figure that would be
acceptable to the military. The PPP has countered with the
suggestion that they might name Samak as Minister of Defense
as well as PM.


3. (C) Former PM Thaksin's wife Pojaman continues to play an
increasingly open role in discussions on the political
situation. It is anticipated that she may meet with Privy
Councillor Prem and it appears that she has met with Army
commander Anupong. We presume that she is discussing the
conditions for Thaksin's return to Thailand in these
meetings, or at least laying the groundwork for future
negotiations.

ELECTION COMMISSION AND COURTS
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4. (C) As of COB Friday, the Election Commission (ECT) has
not announced its certification of the additional MPs
necessary to allow Parliament to open on Monday, January 21,
but it appears on track to resolve this issue before then,
and the opening ceremony of Parliament is set for Monday
afternoon. The ECT can either certify a sufficient number
of MPs to reach the target of 456 (95 percent of the total),
or certify all the remaining MPs, and then refer any cases to
the Supreme Court for resolution if the ECT determines that
there was serious evidence of fraud.


5. (C) The thorniest case involves PPP executive member
Yongyuth, accused of bribing local officials in Chiang Rai.
This case not only affects Yongyuth, but also other PPP
winners on the party list who may have benefited from the
alleged bribery. It could have further implications, as the
law allows for the dissolution of a party in cases in which
an executive member is involved in serious vote fraud. There
is concern, however, that the ECT and the courts will not be
willing to challenge PPP now that it is clear that it will
form the government.


6. (U) The Supreme Court also ruled today that the advance
voting was legal, removing another possible impediment to the
opening of Parliament on Monday. The Supreme Court also
declined to find that PPP was nominee of the disbanded Thai
Rak Thai party, stating that the issue fell under the
jurisdiction of the Constitutional Court.

CASTING ASPERSIONS
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7. (C) Unfortunate rumors about forces at work behind the
scenes of the post-election drama are surfacing. For

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example, an academic told us that the post-election situation
had developed in such a way as to allow Thaksin to return
because the Crown Prince wanted him back (a reference to the
allegations that Thaksin had made payments to the Crown
Prince.) A NGO leader alleged that two of the Election
Commissioners were in the pay of PPP; since the issuance of a
"red card" disqualification required the agreement of four
commissioners, he said, the commission would not be applying
the strict penalties foreseen in the law for elections
cheats. (Comment: these rumors are unfortunate because they
further erode support for trust in a fair election process
and impartial courts to resolve political conflicts. End
comment.)

FORGING AHEAD
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8. (C) The first order of business for the new parliament
will be the election of a House Speaker. The election of the
Prime Minister could occur by the end of next week, with a
new government in place by early February. PPP has toned
down some of its rhetoric about closing down the
investigations on Thaksin-era corruption, and speeding up the
removal of the ban on the 111 former TRT party executives.
In recent statements, it has focused on the need to address
the concerns about the economy as quickly as possible, an
issue that has far more support from the public at large.
There is a general view that the new government will not last
long (common estimates range from 6 months to one year),but
the coalition should have comfortably over 300 seats, which
is a reasonable majority; it may not be as fragile as feared.
The coalition partners, having spent heavily on the
election, will not be eager to face another contest soon. The
PPP may be more interested in going back to the polls,
however, if they are able to rehabilitate their 111 banned
colleagues; they could then move into a new round of
elections in which they could hope to gain the majority on
their own, without the need of a coalition partner.

COMMENT
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9. (C) After two years of uncertainty, including massive
demonstrations, an annulled election, a caretaker government,
a military coup, a junta, an interim government and a new
constitution, we are pretty much back to where we were in

2005. There has been no resolution of the issues that
provoked the crisis in the first place. The rule of law and
accountability for elected officials have not been
strengthened, the corrupting role of money in the political
process has not been reduced, the relationship between
politicians and the royal institutions, including the Privy
council, has not be clarified. After a strategic pause, the
same conflicts that led to the political crisis are likely to
re-emerge, if the new government does not do better than we
expect in promoting reconciliation and consensus-building.
JOHN