NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE BEGINS IN THAI HOUSE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001951

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/24/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TH
SUBJECT: NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE BEGINS IN THAI HOUSE OF
REPRESENTATIVES

REF: A. BANGKOK 1897 (PRESSING FOR PM'S RESIGNATION)

B. BANGKOK 1878 (PREAH VIHEAR TEMPLE MAP APPROVED)

Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason: 1.4 (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Democrat Party legislators on June 24 began the House
of Representatives' formal debate over Prime Minister Samak
Sundaravej's administration's performance. We expect voting
on the Democrats' no-confidence motion on Thursday, June 26.
We have no reason to believe the governing coalition will
break apart. The Senate had a separate debate over the
government's performance on June 23. These parliamentary
efforts may usefully lesson tension by showing that
grievances against the government can be aired in parliament.
End Summary.

DEBATE BEGINS
--------------


2. (SBU) On the afternoon of June 24, House legislators began
a debate over the Samak administration's performance. House
officials scheduled the debate after the Democrats submitted
a no-confidence motion targeting Prime Minister Samak to the
House Speaker, in accordance with article 158 of the
Constitution, which provides that House members totaling no
less than one-fifth of the membership may submit such a
motion. The Democrats' motion designated Democrat Party
Leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the legislator to assume the
Premiership in the event that the no-confidence motion
passes. In accordance with article 159 of the Constitution,
the Democrats also submitted a separate motion that targets
seven other cabinet ministers for poor performance. (Ref A
provided the full list of targeted ministers.)


3. (SBU) The debate is expected to continue late into the
night of June 24 and then resume during the day on June 25.
Abhisit led off the debate with general remarks; various
Democrat legislators will seek to substantiate their
allegations against the targeted cabinet members, who will
respond after the Democrats' turn. We expect 50 Democrat
legislators to participate, with Abhisit delivering
concluding remarks for the Democrats on June 25, after which
Prime Minister Samak, as the final speaker, will offer his
defense. The House will vote on the no-confidence motions on
June 26. Legislators will vote using an electronic system,
and the record of legislators' votes will be available to the
public.


4. (SBU) Article 162 of the Constitution specifies that
legislators are not bound by their party policies when they
cast their votes for no-confidence motions, but we expect
legislators to vote along party lines. The Democrats
therefore appear highly unlikely to receive the required
majority support in the House for their motions to pass. Of
the House's 480 seats, 470 are currently filled; the
Democrats have only 164, while the governing coalition holds
306, with Samak's People's Power Party occupying 223.
Leading Democrats have recently told us privately they did
not expect their motion to pass, but they wanted to air their
grievances against the cabinet. Nonetheless, there is a
tremendous amount of speculation that there will be
significant defections, particularly in the voting on the
more embattled ministers, including Foreign Minister Noppadon
Pattama and Deputy Prime Minister/Commerce Minister Mingkwan
Sangsuwan.


5. (SBU) While the no-confidence motion against Samak raises
the opposition's fundamental grievance, claiming he is
functioning as a cutout for former Prime Minister Thaksin,
most public attention is currently focused on the controversy
over Preah Vihear temple, located along the Thai-Cambodian
border (ref B). Foreign Minister Noppadon has been included
in the Democrats' no-confidence motion for allegedly making
inappropriate concessions to Cambodia, which long ago
received international recognition of its sovereignty over

BANGKOK 00001951 002 OF 002


the temple. The dispute over Preah Vihear has come to
dominate not only anti-government protests, but also
television and radio news and talk shows, and has become the
premier issue for the demonstrators surrounding Government
House.

SENATE JOINS IN
--------------


6. (SBU) The Senate, meanwhile, held its own debate over the
administration's performance on June 23, albeit without
passage of any associated resolution. The debate, which
covered some of the same complaints lodged by the Democrats,
was initiated at the request of 61 of the 150 Senators.
(Article 161 of the Constitution specifies that one-third of
the Senate may initiate such a debate.) Senators criticized
Samak on both personal and policy grounds, while Samak sought
to rebut Senators' accusations. In the current polarized
environment, the debate most likely reinforced preexisting
views, rather than swaying opinions.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Ironically, the Democrats' no-confidence debate may
help the government in some ways. Although the Democrats
have a platform to voice their criticisms, the debate
demonstrates that avenues exist for the airing of grievances;
one significant step in the protracted crisis that led to the
2006 coup d'etat was Thaksin's decision to dissolve the House
instead of permitting a parliamentary debate over his sale of
his Shin Corp conglomerate. The ongoing debate may help to
take some wind out of the sails of the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD),which on June 20 surrounded Government House
to show its antipathy toward the government.
JOHN