THE PARLIAMENT'S TURN - NO CONFIDENCE DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001933

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/22/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: THE PARLIAMENT'S TURN - NO CONFIDENCE DEBATE
SCHEDULED

REF: BANGKOK 1917 (ANTI-GOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATORS)

Classified By: A/DCM Anne Casper, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: While peaceful demonstrators continue to
surround Government House, the government has agreed to send
the affected ministers to participate in the no-confidence
debate requested by the opposition Democrat Party on June
24-25, and to appear before the Senate to answer questions on
June 23. The Democrats have little expectation that the
no-confidence motion will pass, but in the wake of weeks of
street demonstrations, they want to bring the political
process back to the Parliament. It is not clear how the
demonstrators will respond to the no-confidence vote. It is
possible that further concessions by the government --
particularly pledges not to interfere in the court cases
against former PM Thaksin -- could be enough to end the
demonstrations. However, a PAD supporter told us that the
protests might also escalate, if the demonstrators viewed the
Parliament's action as ineffectual. The government will take
a pounding from the Parliament this week, but it still
appears to have the votes to weather the no confidence
debate. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) With the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
demonstration surrounding the Government House and calling
for the PM's resignation, the government agreed to put the
opposition request for a no-confidence debate on the
Parliament's schedule for this week. The government also
agreed to accede to the request by a group of senators who
wanted to debate the government's performance. The Senate
action is taking place on Monday, June 23, while the
no-confidence debate in the lower house will be held on
Tuesday and Wednesday.


3. (C) The Democrats -- the sole opposition party -- say that
there is little expectation that the government coalition
will crack as a result of the no-confidence debate or the
current level of protests. The party's Secretary-General
told us on Friday that there was no coordination between the
Democrats and the PAD about the timing of the motion, which
he did not expect to pass. Former Ambassador to the US
Kasit, who is both a Democrat party advisor and a frequent
speaker at PAD rallies, told us much the same thing today.
He did add that the strong emotions evoked by the
Thai-Cambodian negotiations over the inscription of the
ancient Khmer Preah Vihear temple could sway some of the
coalition parties and even some of the ruling People's Power
Party (PPP) MPs, particularly those from the Northeastern
provinces close to the temple. Amb. Kasit said, as had the
Party's SecGen, that the Democrats did not want to bring down
the government of PM Samak. In fact, as the Dems are broke,
they really do not want to face new elections too soon.


4. (C) The Democrats, according to Kasit, are holding the
debate because they want to bring the political process back
into the Parliament. The Democrats and the PAD share some
goals, but differ widely on tactics; the PAD reflects the
views of much of Thai civil society in disdaining and
distrusting political parties and politicians. Kasit was
unsure how the PAD would respond if the no-confidence motion
failed and PM Samak continued to resist stepping down. On
the one hand, the PAD leaders might agree to end their
demonstration if the government agreed to certain conditions,
including a promise not to interfere with the judicial
process in any of the cases against former PM Thaksin, a
pledge not to harass or transfer officials who had cooperated
with the post-coup government on those investigations, and
agreement to drop support for inscribing the Preah Vihear
site, at least without significant modifications to the
agreement with Cambodia. On the other hand, Kasit was
concerned that the failure of the no-confidence motion would
only confirm in the mind of the PAD leaders that the
Parliament was largely irrelevant to the political process,
and encourage PAD to escalate their protests. One possible
next step would be for the state-owned enterprise leaders to
make good on their threat to start cutting water and
electrical service to some areas. Kasit said some union
leaders had met with him and told him they were prepared to
take that step.

COMMENT
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5. (C) The government has probably made the right call in
permitting the debates in the Parliament, but we will see how

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the excitable PM Samak handles the grilling he and his
ministers are likely to receive. There is a lot of buzz
about the possible resignation of the PM, but the governing
coalition still has more than enough seats to weather the
no-confidence vote. Samak is embattled, but not defeated.



JOHN