OPPOSITION PRESSES FOR PM'S RESIGNATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001897

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PRESSES FOR PM'S RESIGNATION

REF: BANGKOK 1878

Classified By: CDA a.i. James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Anti-government protesters, using hard-line
rhetoric, are threatening to march on Government House on
June 20, a move that is likely to be met by stiff resistance
from the police. Meanwhile, the opposition Democrat Party
has tried to bring the debate to the Parliament, filing a
no-confidence motion against the PM and other ministers, but
the government is so far claiming that there is no time in
the current special session to permit a no-confidence debate.
This leaves opponents no place to go but to the streets to
continue their efforts to oust the PM and if possible bring
down the government. Demonstrators may hope that recent
events, particularly economic difficulties, have so weakened
the PM that he can be brought down by pressure from the
streets. They may find, however, that the unpredictable Samak
will not go without a fight. End summary.

ON THE STREETS
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2. (C) The People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) announced
June 17 that it would again try to march on Government House
on June 20, and rally there until Prime Minister Samak
Sundaravej resigns. The PAD rally continues to draw steady
crowds of perhaps 5-10,000, blocking a major intersection at
the Makhawan bridge, about a kilometer from Government House,
where protesters have been camped out since May 25. PAD has
kept in the media spotlight with its "roving demonstrations"
- sending out groups of about 2-5,000 to protest at various
sites around town (such as the Foreign Ministry, and the
Election Commission). Announcing another attempt to reach
Government House, however, is quite provocative, as the
government has made clear its determination to prevent
protesters from besieging the seat of government. Rhetoric
from the PAD is fanning fears of violence, as PAD leaders
Sonthi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimeaung show no sign of any
willingness to negotiate or compromise.


3. (C) The government is also dealing with a range of smaller
economic protests from various kinds of farmers (garlic
farmers, sticky rice farmers and indebted farmers have all
protested, with some groups reportedly coming into Bangkok
during the course of this week). Truckers have protested the
high cost of fuel. This week, senior members of the
State-Owned Enterprise Unions have said that their unions
will support the PAD, and even threatened industrial action,
such as cutting power supplies, if the government uses force
against the demonstrators. (Note: it is unclear how much
support these leaders have within their unions and whether
they could successfully orchestrate such a disruption. End
note.)

AND IN THE PARLIAMENT
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4. (SBU) Meanwhile, the Democrat Party (DP) on June 18 filed
no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej
and seven other cabinet members (full list in para 6),
including the Foreign Minister and leading members of the
economic team. The DP alleged broad mismanagement of
governmental affairs and criticized Samak for, among other
matters, serving the interests of former politicians (read:
principally former PM Thaksin). Ostensibly, the Foreign
Minister, who previously served as Thaksin's lead lawyer, is
targeted primarily for his handling of the Preah Vihear
temple controversy (reftel). So far, the government is
insisting that there is no time available to hold the
no-confidence debate during the current extraordinary session
of parliament, and a DP official told us he considered it
highly unlikely that the no-confidence debate would take
place during the current session, which is focused on passage
of a national budget and is scheduled to end on June 28.
There is other parliamentary maneuvering afoot as well,
including a move by a group of Senators to compel the
ministers to appear to answer questions, and a possible joint
motion by the House opposition and sympathetic senators to
force another special session in July for the no-confidence
debate. The government opposes all of these options.

COMMENT

BANGKOK 00001897 002 OF 002


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5. (C) The DP, which is the sole opposition party, has 164
seats in the 480-seat parliament; it is difficult to imagine
sufficient defections from the governing coalition to provide
majority support for the no-confidence motion. The
government's die-hard refusal to permit a debate in the
Parliament may turn out to be counter-productive, in that
parliamentary debate could be a safety valve, allowing the
opposition to let off some steam under circumstances that
would probably not really endanger the government. If this
option continues to be blocked, it may fuel the street
protests. Three weeks ago, PM Samak caused a high spike in
tensions with his threat to disperse the demonstrators. PAD
has now responded in kind, causing a flurry of concern with
their threat to confront police and march on the one place in
the city they know they'll be blocked from going. They are
gambling that PM Samak is weak enough, especially given the
lukewarm support within his own party, to be brought down by
pressure from the street. They may find, however, that the
tough old PM will not go without a fight. End comment.


6. (U) The full list of Cabinet members named in the
no-confidence motion is:
- Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej
- Deputy PM and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee;
- Deputy PM and Commerce Minister Mingkwan Sangsuwan;
- Interior Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung;
- Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama;
- Justice Minister Somphong Amornwiwat;
- Transportation Minister Santi Promphat; and
- Deputy Transportation Minister Songsak Thongsri.
JOHN