FORMER CABINET MINISTER DISCUSSES LESE MAJESTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001879

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR KDEM KJUS TH
SUBJECT: FORMER CABINET MINISTER DISCUSSES LESE MAJESTE
CHARGE, THAKSIN, AND ROYAL FAMILY

REF: A. BANGKOK 1662 (LESE MAJESTE)

B. BANGKOK 1613 (JAKRAPOB TAKES AXE TO MEDIA)

C. BANGKOK 1612 (HOW HOT IS IT?)

D. BANGKOK 1370 (THEIN SEIN VISIT)

E. BANGKOK 1290 (DINNER WITH THAKSIN)

Classified By: CDA James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Jakrapob Penkair, the former Minister Attached to the
Prime Minister's Office who resigned on May 30 after being
charged with lese majeste, told us on June 17 that he may be
prosecuted for this alleged offense, but he would expect to
be pardoned if convicted. He believed the police were likely
encouraged by the palace or its surrogates to pursue his
case, but he also fell victim to plotting by colleagues in
People's Power Party circles. Jakrapob claimed that former
Prime Minister Thaksin's lack of support for him, and for
Jakrapob's advocacy of a more democratic Thailand, showed
that Thaksin has withdrawn from political life -- even though
Thaksin, in our view, remains involved in informal political
decisionmaking. Jakrapob also commented on King Bhumibol's
health and on the Queen's activities and her personal
connection to First Army Commander Prayut Chan-ocha (who has
featured prominently of late in coup rumors). End Summary.

LESE MAJESTE CASE
--------------


2. (C/NF) Deputy Political Counselor met on June 17 with
former Minister Attached to the Prime Minister's Office
Jakrapob Penkair (strictly protect throughout),who resigned
on May 30 after being charged by police with lese majeste
following media focus on his public description of a clash
between democracy and Thailand's traditional patronage system
(ref A). Jakrapob characterized the lese majeste charge
against him as weak. He said the investigating police
officers had admitted that a literal, word-by-word reading of
his public remarks presented no basis for the charge, but the
police nevertheless based their accusation on suspicion of a
"hidden agenda" against the monarchy that was revealed by the
overall tone of his statements. Speaking privately to us,
Jakrapob readily admitted that his goal was to help Thailand
to build a more modern political system, one in which the
structures of democratic governance would not be vulnerable
to interference by the palace.


3. (C) Jakrapob said he would provide the police with a
statement responding to the lese majeste charge on July 2.
His case would then undergo reviews by police officials at
two levels before it might be forwarded to public
prosecutors. Jakrapob doubted that those reviews would
result in the police dismissing his case, as such a move
would generate strong criticism of the police by royalists.


4. (C) Citing widespread public esteem for Thailand's
judicial system, Jakrapob told us he doubted prosecutors
would face similar criticism if they were to decline to
prosecute him. He claimed, however, that the high profile of
his case had led to widespread dissemination of a text of his
remarks, and this might make it more likely that this matter
would proceed to trial. He said he had recommended to
colleagues of his that they should use his case, and possibly
his imprisonment, to advance the public's interest (e.g.,
enlightening Thais about feudal elements of Thai politics,
including lese majeste provisions of law). Jakrapob said he
expected that he would receive a royal pardon if convicted,
as King Bhumibol has announced that he would pardon anyone
convicted of lese majeste.

STABBED IN THE BACK
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5. (C) Jakrapob surmised that the police had been pressured
to pursue him by a loose cabal involving, possibly among
others, Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda, the
People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD),and the Democrat

BANGKOK 00001879 002 OF 003


Party. He also felt that enemies of his within the
pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) had deliberately
stoked the controversy in order to force him out of office.
He claimed that some figures -- such as Newin Chidchob, a
former legislator and close associate of former PM Thaksin --
had taken note of his efforts to reform media management in
Thailand (see ref B) and wanted to displace him in order to
accrue for themselves the influence and fringe benefits that
such efforts could provide.


6. (C/NF) Jakrapob told us with dismay that Thaksin had
quickly decided not to support Jakrapob when he came under
fire. Jakrapob said Thaksin had likely worried that Jakrapob
would use his position to engage in a "long war" (Jakrapob's
term) against the palace, and this could affect Thaksin.
Implying that Thaksin's and his political views were not
dissimilar, Jakrapob said Thaksin's lack of political support
for him showed that Thaksin had truly withdrawn from
politics. Jakrapob then speculated that Thaksin might be
willing to make a deal with the palace or its surrogates
whereby the Democrat Party could run the government. If
Thaksin refused that deal, Jakrapob speculated that the
anti-Thaksin cabal would continue to place pressure on
Thaksin and his allies through PAD demonstrations and the
aggressive pursuit of legal cases against Thaksin.


7. (C/NF) Comment: In our discussion, Jakrapob did not
resolve the seeming contradiction between his assertion that
Thaksin was out of politics and his speculation that Thaksin
might make a deal that determines who governs Thailand. In
an early June lunch meeting, Thaksin told the Australian
Ambassador to Thailand that he was out of politics, although
Thaksin also characterized himself as directing political and
economic events -- "driving from the back seat," according to
an Australian diplomat present. This portrayal of Thaksin as
engaged in politics while formally uninvolved tracks with the
impression he conveyed to the U.S. Ambassador in late April
-- see ref E. End Comment.

REMARKS ABOUT THE ROYAL FAMILY AND GENERAL PRAYUT
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8. (C/NF) We also asked Jakrapob about the widespread rumors
that First Army Commander General Prayut Chan-ocha would have
a leading role in the event of a military coup d'etat (ref
C). Jakrapob explained this view by referring to a close
personal bond that Prayut had reportedly formed with the
Queen during his service with the Queen's Regiment. Jakrapob
alleged that this close relationship had allowed Prayut to
maintain direct contact with the Queen, who is widely thought
to support a confrontational approach to the current
government. The Queen fueled this perception when,
accompanied by Army Commander Anupong Paojinda, she visited
the "War Victory Temple" (Wat Channa Songkram) on the May 19
Buddhist holiday. That temple is not the traditional venue
for the royal family on this holiday, but is normally a place
where people pray before going into a battle of one sort or
another.


9. (C/NF) In a tangential aside, Jakrapob noted that, prior
to his resignation, he had accompanied visiting Burmese Prime
Minister Thein Sein to an April 30 audience with the King
(ref D). Jakrapob said that, at that audience, the King had
appeared in excellent condition and was mentally sharp.
Jakrapob added, seemingly based on hearsay, that the King has
"good days and bad days."

COMMENT
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10. (C/NF) The public portrayal of Jakrapob as disloyal to
the King helped to energize anti-government sentiment.
Jakrapob's resignation, combined with the government's
decision to postpone constitutional amendment procedures,
lowered tension somewhat, although the PAD continues its
rallies and appears eager to find new ways to attack the
Samak administration. While Jakrapob did not directly insult
the King in the remarks that led to the lese majeste charge,
he does believe it would be appropriate to diminish the

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palace's stature and informal political role. In his mind,
the fact that voicing this view could land him in prison
illustrates clearly his point.
ENTWISTLE