PM MAKES EMPTY THREAT TO DISPERSE DEMONSTRATORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001671

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PM MAKES EMPTY THREAT TO DISPERSE DEMONSTRATORS


Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The government stood down from threats to
disperse the week-long protest by the People's Alliance for
Democracy (PAD) after a day-long, tense confrontation on May

31. Prime Minister Samak claims he was misunderstood, and
never really meant to force a confrontation with the
protesters by having police break up the demonstration. In
fact, it appears that he could not get his government or the
security forces to back his plan. The PAD did not acquit
itself well, however, when some of its leaders threatened to
use violence to resist arrest. The PM, on balance, is
probably the biggest loser, for making empty threats and for
escalating tensions that were beginning to subside a little.
This has led to further rumors that some coalition partners
may be looking for his replacement, perhaps considering
Thaksin's brother-in-law, current Education Minister Somchai
Wongsawat. End Summary.


2. (C) Bangkok avoided a confrontation on May 31 after the
government stepped back from threats to close down the
week-long anti-government demonstration blocking a major
thoroughfare. PM Samak ratcheted up pressure on the
demonstrators in a Saturday morning TV broadcast, in which he
said that demonstrators would have to move from the site, or
the security forces would move them. The PM's comments, made
at some length, appeared to be a response to the call by the
leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD)
demonstration for Samak to resign. The PM's sabre-rattling
provoked a predictable reaction from the PAD. Although some
PAD leaders apparently supported a more temperate response,
the overwrought statements by media firebrand Sonthi
Limthongkul and former Bangkok governor Chamlong Srimeuang
drowned out more sensible voices. Sonthi and Chamlong
reportedly urged the crowd to be ready to "defend
themselves," vowed to face death if necessary, and generally
tried to spin their supporters up and raise the tension
levels. News media featured pictures of the PAD guards (of
which there are perhaps 100),armed (rather pathetically)
with sticks and the occasional baseball bat, wearing
motorcycle helmets and carrying homemade wooden shields.
Reports indicated that over 10,000 demonstrators were at the
site by evening, up from the few hundred that participated in
the rally during the day.

DEADLINES PASS AS GOVERNMENT RECONSIDERS
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3. (C) Over the course of the afternoon, a succession of
"deadlines" came and went. Police officials confirmed
publicly that they would break up the demonstration if the
protesters did not move on their own. Police told us that
they were standing by for clear instructions from the PM.
Military contacts told us that the military was put on alert.
Senior military officials told the press that they did not
believe that there was any role for the military in ending
the protests, but they would comply with the government's
orders. Military officials also told us that they understood
the PM was considering declaring a state of emergency, and
that the military opposed such a move, but would obey the
government. (Comment: the report on a possible emergency
declaration seemed to circulate fairly widely, but we have
only second-hand reports. End Comment.) Foreign minister
Noppadon told the press in the afternoon that the government
would not use force and would obey the law in dealing with
the demonstrators.


4. (C) The Ambassador called MFA Permsec Virasakdi early in
the afternoon of May 31. He advised that the use of force by
the government would lead to violence, and Thailand's
political and economic image would suffer. He welcomed the
FM's more moderate statements and hoped that the FM's message
would be heard in Cabinet discussions of the issue. The
Permsec later advised the Ambassador that he had conveyed the
message to the FM, an assistant to the PM, and to Army
Commander Anupong. Embassy also passed a message to PAD
contacts that PAD's reputation would be permanently tarnished
if it resorted to violence in response to police actions.

NEVER MIND
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5. (C) Around 7:30 pm on May 31, Interior Minister Chalerm
told the press, essentially, that it was all a big
misunderstanding. He claimed that the government had
received information that "ill-intentioned people" had
gathered in a law office in a Bangkok neighborhood -- a

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veiled reference to some known PAD financiers -- with plans
to provoke a violent incident at the rally. The government
had subsequently managed to thwart these attempts, so there
was no need to break up the demonstration. Police stood
down; demonstrators at the rally gave them flowers. The PAD
leaders said they would continue demonstrating, and called on
the other parties in the governing coalition to withdraw
their support from the PM. Rallies appear set to continue in
that location for some while yet. Last week, we observed the
demonstrators very well entrenched, with tents, a soup
kitchen and loads of supplies. A few hundred people occupy
the site by day, with some thousands coming every night to
hear speeches and music, broadcast throughout the area by
sound equipment and projected on large screens.

THE DAY AFTER THE NIGHT BEFORE
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6. (C) On the margins of events with visiting SecDef Gates on
June 1, Samak said that he had been "misunderstood." Looking
somewhat sheepish, he told the Ambassador that he had only
meant to say that protesters needed to move to another
location and stop blocking traffic. Despite the apparent
"near miss" on Saturday, Samak appeared fairly relaxed during
Sunday's meeting and dinner with the SecDef, treating diners
to a few songs and reporting he had personally checked out
the food preparations and the band. During Samak's weekly
TV/Radio broadcast that morning, he also denied he had issued
an ultimatum to the protesters.


7. (C) Ambassador spoke on Sunday to former PM Thaksin, then
in China; various reports have credited Thaksin with
intervening with current officials to ensure there was no
crack-down on peaceful demonstrators. Thaksin assured
Ambassador there would be no violence,and encouraged the USG
to continue to articulate its strong support for
democratically elected government.

COMMENT
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8. (C) No one really came out well from this latest round of
guerrilla theater. The PAD appears to have overplayed its
hand with its threats to overturn the government. They can
steadily turn out crowds somewhere in the range of 5,000 to
20,000, but recent developments, like the resignation of
controversial minister Jakrapob, tended to diminish their
momentum. They can hold their intersection, but cannot take
Government House with numbers like that. Like in 2006, they
need their adversaries to do something outrageous and
provocative to tempt demo-weary Bangkok into the streets.
Samak, for his part, is probably the biggest loser. Either
his Saturday TV appearance was complete unplanned bluster run
amok, or he really intended to crack heads, but couldn't get
his government, the police or the military to support him.
The weekend's events have fed rumors that the coalition may
be looking for a way to ease Samak out, with speculation that
Thaksin's brother-in-law, Minister of Education Somchai
Wongsawat, is next in line for the dubious honor of being
Thaksin's proxy PM.
JOHN