Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK1567
2008-05-22 00:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT PLAN STRAINS COALITION

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0316
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHBK #1567/01 1430020
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 220020Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3108
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001567 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT PLAN STRAINS COALITION
TIES, RAISES POLITICAL TEMPERATURE

REF: A. BANGKOK 972

B. BANGKOKG 608

C. BANGKOK 598

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. En, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001567

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTION AMENDMENT PLAN STRAINS COALITION
TIES, RAISES POLITICAL TEMPERATURE

REF: A. BANGKOK 972

B. BANGKOKG 608

C. BANGKOK 598

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. En, reason 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ruling People's Power Party coalition
should have enough votes to push through an extensive
revision to the 2007 Constitution before the end of the year.
Despite the coalition's numbers, however, the PPP is clearly
nervous about the extent and effect of possible public
opposition. The PPP has shored up its control of the
Parliament by installing a new speaker to replace Yongyuth
Tiyapairat, suspended from the position while facing election
fraud charges. PPP MPs and supporters submitted a motion in
support of the amendments on May 21, and it appears likely
the Parliament will vote on the first reading of proposal in
June. The Parliament should theoretically be able to
complete the amendment process before the end of the year.
This, in turn, should be fast enough to spare PPP from being
dissolved by the Constitutional Court for alleged election
fraud, removing this severe penalty before the court can
apply it. Elements of the opposition, however, are preparing
to make the amendment proposal into a rallying point against
the PPP. There also appear to be divisions within the
governing coalition and even within PPP about the amendment
plans. This conflict and uncertainty will further exacerbate
political tensions and distract the government from
addressing problems of greater concern to the public. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Political tensions remain high as the ruling People's
Power Party (PPP) proceeds with plans to amend the
constitution. The process is likely to play out over the
next three to six months in unpredictable ways. The
coalition partners do not appear unified in their approach to
the amendment process. The opposition, a clamorous and
uncoordinated assortment of academics, NGOs, politicians and
eminent persons, is similarly divided on exactly what they
want, other than to block the amendment plans of the ruling
parties. (Note: Septel will discuss the political tensions
provoked by the confrontation over the constitution in
greater detail. End note.)


WHAT'S THE RUSH?
--------------


3. (C) Since the adoption of the new constitution after last
year's referendum, there has been general agreement that it
would need to be amended. The drafting process was rushed
and insufficiently participatory, at least in the view of the
academics and activists who are trying to strengthen
grassroots democracy here. The junta cast a long shadow over
the drafting process. Nonetheless, some elements of the 2007
constitution were widely viewed as positive, including the
strengthening of protections for civil rights, and the
beefing up of the independent watchdog institutions like the
counter-corruption commission.


4. (C) The main purpose of the 2007 Constitution, however,
was to serve as a bulwark to guard against Thaksin's return.
It was to accomplish this in part by instituting an election
system and safeguards that would make it harder for any one
party to monopolize power, and which would severely punish
election fraud. This was supposed to impede the creation of
another megaparty like Thai Rak Thai. The constitution
(Article 309) also protected the Assets Examination
Commission, set up by the junta to investigate former PM
Thaksin and ensure that cases were prepared and charges filed
in court in the alleged cases of official corruption
involving Thaksin and other members of his government. A
conviction on any of the potential corruption charges against
Thaksin could render him ineligible for public office in the
future.

FULL SPEED AHEAD
--------------


5. (C) When Prime Minister Samak took office, he first said
that he would consider amendments to the constitution only
toward the end of his planned four year term. Samak
personally had nothing to gain from rushing through
constitutional amendments; significant changes to the
constitution might logically have led to calls for early
elections, which might well have spelled the end of Samak's

BANGKOK 00001567 002 OF 003


term as PM (he is not expected to hang on to power if there
is a new election). His plans changed suddenly, however, when
it was clear that his People's Power Party would likely face
an election fraud case that could lead to the party's
dissolution (ref A). The PPP leadership suddenly endorsed a
plan to make substantial amendments to the constitution and
related laws this year, particularly in the sections
specifying party dissolution as a penalty for certain kinds
of election fraud. This provoked an outcry from many of the
same groups that had opposed former PM Thaksin; they have
criticized the PPP for making dramatic changes to the
political rules of the game solely for their own
self-interest, and not in the interests of the people. Many
of these groups are willing to support amendments to the
Constitution, but they have called for an inclusive
amendment process that involves civil society and grassroots
organizations, and envision a procedure that would take more
than a year.


6. (C) The amendment plans have also caused some tensions
within the six-party ruling coalition. Two of the smaller
parties also face possible dissolution for election fraud,
and thus are also eager to see the severe penalties for
election fraud removed from the Constitution. But some
coalition MPs, and even PPP members, have cautiously
expressed a preference for a much more modest amendment plan,
focusing on the election fraud penalties, rather than the
major re-write currently being discussed. Some have also
suggested that there should be another referendum to approve
any sweeping changes, as the 2007 Constitution was adopted
through a referendum process.


7. (C) Of more concern, the open conflict over the
constitution amendment process, reminiscent of the turbulent
political atmosphere in 2006, has provoked a steady stream of
"coup chatter" in the press and public at large, with rampant
speculation on possible coup scenarios. Journalists and
respected academics have warned publicly that, if the PPP
pushes through amendments just to prevent itself from facing
the consequences of election fraud, it could provoke another
coup. Army chief Anupong and other senior military officials
have in response issued almost daily denials that they plan
any intervention in politics.

PPP MARTIALS ITS FORCES
--------------


8. (C) Amid all the hubbub, the PPP is steadily pressing
ahead with its plans. Embattled Parliament speaker Yongyuth
T., who faces election fraud charges (ref B),formally
resigned as speaker in April. Yongyuth was suspended from
carrying out his speaker duties while his fraud case was
being heard. With Yongyuth suspended, the Senate Chair --
no friend of the PPP -- would have presided over the joint
sessions of the parliament considering constitution
amendments. It was therefore widely understood that PPP
needed a reliable House Speaker in place to shepherd through
the constitution amendment process. In order to ensure this,
Yongyuth formally stepped aside to allow a permanent
replacement to be chosen as House Speaker. On May 12, the
lower House elected Chai Chidchob.


9. (C) Chai, an 80-year-old political veteran, is the father
of banned politician Newin Chidchob (who is generally viewed
as one of Thaksin's staunchest supporters and his master of
political dirty tricks). The vote showed some weakness in
the coalition, as twelve coalition MPs abstained, and two
voted against the PPP candidate. Chart Thai leader and
former PM Banharn complained of the high-handed tactics of
the PPP and told the press that former PM Thaksin himself had
called to lobby Chart Thai members for their votes. Factions
within the PPP also complained about the choice, with fairly
open dissent reflected in leaks to the media. Although the
press has made much of the fact that some coalition members
broke ranks, the PPP candidate was still elected by a
comfortable majority. (283 of the 480 MPs voted for him.
PPP has only 233 MPs, so clearly it drew significant support
from coalition partners.)

NEXT STEPS
--------------


10. (C) On May 21, 164 MPs and senators submitted a motion
calling for the amendment of the constitution. The group
included 123 PPP MPs, plus 11 MPS from three smaller members
of the coalition. Chart Thai (the largest coalition partner,

BANGKOK 00001567 003 OF 003


with 34 seats) and Pracharaj (the smallest, with only 5 MPS)
did not sign on to the motion. Thirty senators also signed
the motion. Minister in the PM's Office Chusak, who has the
lead on constitution issues for the government, told us
earlier this month that PM Samak was very concerned about the
amendment process. Samak feared that, if the government
proposed the amendments, and the vote somehow did not pass,
he would be obligated to dissolve the parliament and call a
new election, as this would be a serious defeat for the
government. Therefore, Samak wanted the constitutional
amendments to be proposed as a motion by the MPs directly,
not as a government initiative. According to Chusak, Samak
thought this would insulate the government, in case the
proposal ran into trouble.


11. (C) Minister Chusak anticipated that parliament would
vote on the first reading during the anticipated special June
session of the Assembly, which will be called to consider the
budget. The amendments need only a simple majority of the
combined House and Senate to pass (316 out of 630 seats).
The party dissolution cases are proceeding slowly and
deliberately; the best estimate is that the PPP case is
unlikely to be decided until close to the end of this year.
(The time is tighter for Chart Thai and Matchima, which are
both further along in the dissolution process - ref C.)
Nonetheless, as long as the MPs consider the amendments
themselves, without convening any kind of constitutional
drafting assembly of jurists, they would seem to be able to
beat the clock, and push through the amendments, at least
before the courts rule on the PPP party dissolution.


COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The election of the new speaker has demonstrated both
the strengths and the weaknesses of the governing coalition.
Public grumbling within the PPP, as well as from Chart Thai
and others, shows some cracks in the government coalition,
but the PPP still easily managed enough votes to install its
choice as Speaker in the end.


13. (C) In the same way, based on arithmetic alone, it seems
like PPP should be able to push through whatever
constitutional amendments it likes. The coalition already
has the necessary 316 MPs. If any fall away (whether for
election-fraud related suspensions, or because they disagree
with the proposed amendments),PPP should be able to win the
support of enough of the 150 Senators to make up the loss.
But in spite of the math, some PPP leaders seem genuinely
concerned about the prospects for their amendment plan, and
elements of the opposition are preparing to make the
amendment process a rallying point for protests against the
government. All of this conflict and uncertainty will
ratchet up already high tensions, and distract the government
from what might be more productive and popular uses of its
time.
JOHN