Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK156
2008-01-15 12:09:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

ELECTION UPDATE: MORE WINNERS, MORE RUMORS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM TH 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000156 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: MORE WINNERS, MORE RUMORS

REF: A. BANGKOK 107 (PPP ON TRACK)

B. 07 BANGKOK 6226 (TOP FIVE THINGS)

C. 06 BANGKOK 2688 (CONSTITUTIONAL COURT ANNULS
POLLS)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000156

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: MORE WINNERS, MORE RUMORS

REF: A. BANGKOK 107 (PPP ON TRACK)

B. 07 BANGKOK 6226 (TOP FIVE THINGS)

C. 06 BANGKOK 2688 (CONSTITUTIONAL COURT ANNULS
POLLS)

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason 1.4 (
b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) To date, the Election Commission has certified the
outcome of 431 (of 480) races in the December 23 House of
Representatives election. The three People's Power Party
(PPP) candidates whose victory was annulled in Nakhon
Ratchasima province won in a re-run election held on January
13; PPP appears certain to retain a substantial parliamentary
plurality after the completion of re-run elections. Senior
executives of two smaller political parties who initially had
appeared to win seats in the House have been disqualified for
electoral improprieties; their disqualification raises the
prospect of efforts to dissolve their political parties. The
wife of deposed PM Thaksin Shinawatra has returned to
Thailand and is believed to be engaged in negotiations over
the composition of the next government, with continued rumors
circulating that confrontational PPP leader Samak will be
sidelined. The PPP Secretary-General is often mentioned as a
less controversial candidate to lead the new government.
There is even speculation that minor party leader Barnharn
could be brought in as a compromise candidate. PPP has
vehemently denied these rumors; the continued delay by Chart
Thai and Motherland parties, however, to formally commit
their over 50 seats to a PPP-led coalition is fueling
speculation of this kind. End Summary.

PARTY EXECUTIVES IN TROUBLE
--------------


2. (SBU) The Election Commission (ECT) has disqualified for
improprieties two legislative candidates who sit on the
executive boards of the Chart Thai and Matchima Thippathai
parties: Monthian Songpracha, Chart Thai's Deputy Secretary
General, and Sunthorn Wilawan, a deputy leader of Matchima
Thippathai. Their disqualification could prompt the Election
Commission to petition the Constitutional Court to dissolve
the two parties. (Ref A explained certain draconian
provisions in the election law that could lead to

consideration of party dissolution in cases such as this.)


3. (C) The ECT also continues to investigate the case against
Yongyuth Tiyapairath, a PPP Deputy Leader whose apparent
victory in the December 23 election has been put on hold
pending a vote-buying investigation (reftel). On January 14,
the Chart Thai candidate who brought the original complaint
abruptly withdrew it. Another witness in the case told the
press that he had been intimidated and had asked for police
protection. Following Yongyuth's vehement complaints that
the investigation against him was biased, the Election
Commission established a new subcommittee, composed of five
former judges and public prosecutors, to look into the
charges. With the deadline for the seating of the parliament
looming, it is not clear how the ECT will handle this case if
it requires protracted investigation, or if witnesses will no
longer cooperate. Some media sources quoted ECT members as
saying they plan to certify Yongyuth's victory prior to the
parliament's first sitting, but will continue to investigate
the allegations lodged against him. If the ECT concludes
there is evidence of fraud after the Parliament holds its
initial sitting, it can refer the case to the Supreme Court;
under these circumstances, the accused candidate is suspended
from the Parliament until his case is resolved.

THAKSIN'S WIFE RETURNS, COALITION NEGOTIATIONS
-------------- -


4. (SBU) Thaksin Shinawatra's wife, Potjaman, returned to
Thailand on January 8. In a smooth process that showed
effective planning by her legal team, she immediately
proceeded first to the Supreme Court, then to the Justice
Ministry's Department of Special Investigations (DSI). At

BANGKOK 00000156 002 OF 003


both sites, she posted bail. The charges at the Supreme
Court related to abuse of power in connection with her
purchase of land from a government-affiliated institution,
while the DSI had a warrant outstanding for her arrest based
on her failure to appear for an investigation relating to the
concealment of assets. She will appear again in court on
January 23 to enter a plea in the land purchase case.


5. (C) Meanwhile, however, despite her denials, there is a
widespread perception that Potjaman is involved in
negotiations relating to the formation of the next
government. (Comment: We have no reason to doubt Potjaman is
indeed playing this role. She weighed in on numerous -- some
claim most -- important decisions when Thaksin was Prime
Minister. End Comment.) Rumors center on speculation that
controversial PPP leader Samak Sundaravej may be asked to
step aside and permit the more presentable PPP
Secretary-General Surapong Suebwongli to become PM. There is

SIPDIS
also a rumor that Chart Thai head and former PM Barnharn
Silpa-archa will be asked to step in and lead the next
government, also as a compromise figure more likely to
promote national reconciliation. The PPP has vehemently and
repeatedly denied these reports. The status of PPP's efforts
to formally announce a coalition remain unclear; there had
been rumors that PPP would make an announcement on January 17
-- the first day after the end of the period of mourning for
the death of Princess Galyani Vadhana. However, Chart Thai
leader Barnharn has once again delayed his party's formal
announcement, which is now slated for January 18. Motherland
Party has also delayed a formal announcement of its plans.
These two parties represent over 50 seats; their continued
coyness in committing clearly to the PPP coalition is fueling
speculation over back room political deals.

UPDATED ELECTION RESULTS
--------------


6. (SBU) As of mid-day on January 15, the Election Commission
(ECT) had certified 431 of the candidates who stood for
election for the 480-seat House of Representatives. The
pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) has 194 certified
winners, compared to 163 for the second-place Democrat Party.
The EC has thus far disqualified seven candidates ("red
cards'),four of them from the PPP, and called for re-run
elections in their constituencies. The ECT continues to
investigate 21 cases, including 19 involving PPP candidates.
The EC expects that re-run elections will take place on
January 17 in two constituencies for five parliamentary
seats, and on January 20 in 11 constituencies for 20
parliamentary seats; it is unclear when other re-run races
will be scheduled.


7. (C) The first "yellow card" re-run election took place in
a district of Nakhon Ratchasima province on January 13.
Three PPP candidates had initially appeared to win seats in
that district, but the election was annulled after the EC
found evidence that implied (but did not confirm) the PPP
candidates were involved in paying people to join
pre-election campaign rallies and improperly donating money
to temples to solicit support from voters. Unofficial
results released on January 14 indicated that the same three
PPP candidates won the re-run election. (Comment: Given the
widespread perception that PPP has won an insurmountable
plurality, we believe few candidates from other parties are
inclined to mount aggressive or expensive campaigns in an
effort to prevail over PPP competitors in re-run campaigns
where PPP appeared to win an initial victory. End Comment.)


8. (C) There have been several cases of what may be
election-related violence in the areas with pending re-run
elections. In Buriram, a bomb exploded on January 13 near
the house of a Motherland candidate who had registered a
complaint about the poll results in his constituency. A
policeman died on the same day in Nakorn Ratchisima,
apparently when the bomb he was carrying accidentally
detonated, according to press accounts. The incident
occurred near the home of a former Thai Rak Thai official
(banned himself, his brother ran on the PPP ticket and lost.)
Police speculate that the bombing attempt might be linked to
business disputes. The politician alleged, however, that it

BANGKOK 00000156 003 OF 003


might be a revenge attack, as the winner in the race was
still under investigation by the ECT and might blame the
intended victim for bringing a fraud claim against him to the
ECT.

OTHER LITIGATION
--------------


9. (C) In addition to the Yongyuth investigation above,
there are several additional cases working their way through
the justice system. Representatives of several political
parties and civic organizations have filed cases with the
Supreme Court against various aspects of the December
elections. A Democrat Party candidate filed a claim that the
PPP, as a proxy or nominee of the disbanded TRT, should have
been ineligible to compete in the elections. A
representative of the New Aspiration Party and an activist
from the Northeast have both filed complaints against the
advanced voting, held on December 15 and 16. They claim that
the ECT had no legal authority to organize advance voting
other than for people voting out of their own district. They
ask that the advance voting be nullified. (Comment: Few here
expect these cases to result in any verdict that would
overturn the results of the election, but the charges
themselves are not without foundation. PPP leader Samak did
describe himself as a "nominee" of former PM Thaksin, and
advanced voting has been the subject of some concern (ref B).
We recall that the 2006 elections were annulled over
technical issues, including compromised ballot secrecy due to
the positioning of the voting booths (ref C). End comment.)


TIME FRAME FOR RE-RUN ELECTIONS, PARLIAMENT OPENING
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) The Election Commission appears confident that it
can certify the winners of 95 percent of House seats (456 out
of 480) before the 30-day constitutional deadline for the
first House session. The EC has said it will continue
investigating election irregularities even for certified
election winners. Under election laws, elected
parliamentarians facing malfeasance charges after official EC
certification are suspended pending a Supreme Court ruling on
the accusations. In recent years, the House's first session
typically has taken place very close to the 30-day mark, with
the election of the Prime Minister occurring soon thereafter.
(The Constitution stipulates that the House must elect a
Prime Minister within 30 days of its first session; based on
progress to date and the current political map we currently
expect the election in early February, well before that
deadline.)


COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) The Election Commission appears likely to complete
sufficient work in time for the House to hold its first
session during the week of January 21-25 - it is very close
to certifying the necessary 456 seats Thus far, there is no
compelling evidence that the ECT is acting with bias as it
investigates election irregularities, and the EC is clearly
feeling the pressure to complete its investigative role
within the 30-day constitutional deadline for the
parliament's first sitting. Even if the parliament convenes
on time, however, there could be further pitfalls for the
elected MPs, some of whom may still be under the threat of
removal even after they take their seats in the assembly.
JOHN