AMBASSADOR PRESSES RTG ON BURMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001327

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR WILDER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM TH BM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR PRESSES RTG ON BURMA

REF: A. STATE 45471 (FLAWED REFERENDUM)


B. AMB JOHN-WILDER TELCON 4/29/08

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: I spoke separately to the Prime Minister and
Foreign Minister, asking them to use the occasion of the
Burmese Prime Minister's visit to advocate for genuine
democratic reform in Burma. The PM said he was prepared to
be a messenger for the West, but clearly has his own ideas
about how to encourage positive change in Burma. The FM
planned to advocate for UN SYG special representative
Gambari's return to Burma, and said he would urge Burma to
release ASSK. We will continue to press the Thai to use
their influence, to the extend possible, in support of
democratic reform in Burma. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) I called Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej on April 30
to urge him to use the occasion of the Burmese PM visit to
press for genuine democratic reform in Burma. Drawing on
reftel talking points and reftelcon, I also stressed the
President's interest in Samak personally pushing for real
democracy in Burma, not just adherence to the regime's sham
roadmap. Speaking informally, Samak replied that he did not
intend to "follow the roadmap," although he did not state
clearly what course he would advocate. He said he was trying
to balance Western interests and those of ASEAN, and to play
"a messenger role on behalf of the West." Consistent with
his prior statements, he said he wanted to give the Burmese a
"helping hand" to assist in their democratization.


3. (C) Discussing his approach to Burma, Samak gave an
example from a recent meeting. Referring to remarks that he
had made at the March 30-31 Greater Mekong Sub-region summit
in Vientiane, Samak said that the Burmese should have "an
opportunity;" "if they behave" they could then host a
high-level GMS meeting. (Comment: We are trying to track
down any relevant point that Samak might have made in
Vientiane; given that the focus of the summit was on trade,
development, and environmental issues, any remarks Samak made
relating to political developments in Burma likely were
unscripted. Samak appears to be saying that offering the
Burmese incentives like hosting international meetings would
encourage greater progress on democracy. End Comment.)


4. (C) I also noted the President's concern and hope that
Thailand will not endorse the May 10 referendum. Samak
appeared unprepared to make any strong statement before the
vote. "It just goes ahead, and we'll see what happens," he
said. He added that he would continue to bear in mind the
President's concern, however, and he reiterated his interest
in remaining "a messenger" between the West and Burma. "Just
let me do my job," he said. Before I could elaborate on USG
concerns, Samak, who was clearly pressed for time, indicated
he had to end the call. (Embassy officials will discuss
reftel points in greater detail with other RTG officials as
soon as possible.)


5. (C) I also spoke to Foreign Minister Noppadon at greater
length on April 30, going through the key points from reftel.
The Foreign Minister said that RTG officials were urging the
Burmese to make the referendum inclusive and transparent. He
cautioned that the Thai could not be publicly critical of the
referendum while the Burmese PM was here. I underscored
that, at a minimum, we certainly wanted other countries not
to welcome the referendum as genuine progress toward
democracy. Noppadon agreed.


6. (C) I asked him what PM Thein Sein was like during the
visit so far. Noppadon said the Burmese PM was not ready to
engage in substantive discussion -- he just "reads his
points." He appeared to be on a short leash. Noppadon would
host Foreign Minister Nyan Win for dinner tonight and planned
to raise points that Gambari had wanted raised, including the
release of ASSK, a visa for Gambari to return and approval
for Gambari to open an office in Rangoon. Noppadon said
Thein Sein had assured his Thai interlocutors that the
referendum process was inclusive and fair. Thein Sein had
explained that, by holding the referendum now, there would be
ample time to arrange for the new elections in two years.


7. (C) Comment: Samak appears to understand our position but,
like many of Burma's neighbors, promotes the view that
incentives and some degree of engagement will be more
effective than sanctions and criticism in promoting positive
change in Burma. Realistically, he may also feel he has
limited room to maneuver on Burma, given Thailand's

BANGKOK 00001327 002 OF 002


dependence on Burmese energy and the wide range of bilateral
and multilateral issues involving the two countries. We
welcome the Foreign Minister's support for the Gambari
points, as well as public comments he made today urging a
credible, free and fair referendum. We will continue
pressing at the highest levels for RTG assistance in
promoting reform in Burma.

JOHN