SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: RTG TALKS WITH INSURGENTS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001210

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EAP/MLS AND DRL
NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN VIOLENCE: RTG TALKS WITH INSURGENTS
STALLED, BUT IN "A GOOD SPOT"

REF: A. CHIANG MAI 47 (SAMAK BLESSES BUT DOES NOT
EMBRACE PROCESS)

B. CHIANG MAI 00040 (PEACE DIALOGUE AWAITS SIGNAL
FROM NEW GOVERNMENT)

C. BANGKOK 00909 (SAMAK MISSPEAKS)

D. BANGKOK 00710 (PRISONER ABUSE ALLEGATIONS
REPORTEDLY ON THE RISE IN SOUTHERN
THAILAND)

E. BANGKOK 00628 (STATISTICS SUGGEST MILITANTS ARE
GETTING MORE SOPHISTICATED)

F. 07 BANGKOK 06281 (SOUTHERN DIALOGUE FACILITATOR
GIVES OPTIMISTIC READ-OUT OF BAHRAIN

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TALKS)

Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Summary: A Henri Dunant Centre for Humanitarian
Dialogue (HDC) representative, Michael Vatikiotis, told the
Ambassador in mid-April that secret talks between the RTG and
southern insurgents were stalled and would likely remain so
for four to six months. HDC, which is brokering talks
between insurgents and the government, believes there is
little political will in Bangkok to advance the peace
process. HDC's representative is concerned the insurgents
will grow impatient and commit some larger act of violence to
regain the spotlight. We do not expect to see any near term
dramatic movement by the Thai government on reconciliation,
but Vatikiotis cited some positive steps by officials based
in the South. It remains unclear whether Prime Minister
Samak will view the situation in the South as amenable to a
political solution, rather than a strictly military one. End
Summary.


2. (S/NF) Michael Vatikiotis from the Henri Dunant Centre for
Humanitarian Dialogue provided the Ambassador with an update
April 10 on the status of the secret dialogue between the
Thai government and southern Thai insurgents. According to
Vatikiotis, the latest round of talks, held in Jakarta on
March 27 and 28, went as well as could be expected given the
current political dynamics in Bangkok. National Security
Council Secretary Lt. General Siripong Boonpat led the
negotiating team. He said the atmosphere during the
discussion was good. For the first time HDC formally
notified the Indonesian Foreign Ministry that talks between
the Thai government and southern Thai insurgents were being
held in Indonesia. Indonesian officials appeared to welcome
this news.


3. (S/NF) Vatikiotis told us the RTG originally called the
meeting to explain to the insurgents why there has been no
progress on confidence building measures since December. The
RTG negotiators blamed political chaos and uncertainty in
Bangkok, and informed the insurgents that it was unlikely
that the senior Thai political leadership would unveil new
initiatives in the talks in the next four to six months.
Vatikiotis explained that the insurgent leaders are under
pressure from their constituents to demonstrate the value of
a dialogue with the government. Supporters of the insurgents
want to know why their leadership is having a dialogue when
they are seeing no results, particularly given the risk of
exposing themselves to the government. Vatikiotis believes
the BRN-C (one of the major insurgent groups) is willing to
accept some form of autonomy rather than independence, but it
will want concessions from the RTG in return. (Vatikiotis
said he felt the RTG was indeed engaging useful interlocutors
on the insurgent side, claiming that the BRN-C
representatives and those from PULO -- another major
insurgent group -- do have meaningful authority.)


4. (S/NF) For now, according to Vatikiotis, the focus of the
talks is how to maintain this delicate peace process. He
characterized the process as "a mess," because the government
has no sense of direction. He believed there would be no
decisions regarding any process of reconciliation for at
least the next four to six months; the RTG has not yet
fulfilled the commitment of former Prime Minister Surayud

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Chulanont to release some prisoners. Vatikiotis worried that
the insurgent groups would launch one or more dramatic
attacks in order to prompt the RTG to address their concerns.
He said it was up to the government to make something
happen.


5. (S/NF) Vatikiotis said there have been some positive
developments in the South recently, despite the stalled
talks. Independent religious leaders have told him that the
government made an effort to reach out to them in the last
month. These religious leaders believe they are central to a
solution to the conflict. Vatikiotis also said that the
Southern Border Province Administration Center (SBPAC) is
beginning to understand that it needs to work with
sub-district level leaders, whom it believes might be part of
the insurgency. SBPAC officials are beginning to see that
they need to work with these people instead of simply
arresting or killing them.


6. (S/NF) Vatikiotis explained that the RTG committee charged
with advancing the dialogue includes a senior MFA official,
Royal Thai Army Commander-in-Chief General Anupong Paojinda,
and the Secretary General of the NSC. Vatikiotis said
newly-appointed NSC Secretary General Lt. General Surapol
Phuan-aiyka -- who replaces Siripong, the lead RTG negotiator
in Jakarta -- would not be as supportive of the peace process
as his predecessor. Vatikiotis said former Prime Minister
Surayud's reinstatement as a member of the Privy Council
could help the peace process, but Surayud's ability to
influence events was questionable because the Privy Council
has no formal role in the talks since the NSC Secretary
General is the designated chairman of the committee
overseeing the process. Nevertheless, Vatikiotis believed
one of Surayud's advisors, Mark Tamthai, Director of Payap
University's Institute of Religion, Culture and Peace, could
regain influence over the process (see ref A).


7. (S/NF) Turning briefly to the role other countries might
play in the process, Vatikiotis said the process works best
if the Thais see it as an internal effort. Acknowledging a
possible future need for other countries to exert greater
pressure on the RTG, Vatikiotis nevertheless believed that in
current conditions foreign pressure would be counter
productive.


8. (S/NF) Vatikiotis told us the next round of talks will be
held sometime in May, possibly in Nepal. He believed the
Nepalese peace process may hold some lessons for the both
government and the insurgents. He dismissed the Aceh peace
process as a potential model because, he said, many
Indonesians feel they were forced by the international
community to sign an agreement.


9. (S/NF) Concluding, Vatikiotis told us that, although the
RTG and the insurgents were still far from any kind of
agreement, they left the talks in "a good spot." He was
unsure how to move forward with the process given the lack of
political will in Bangkok, but he assessed the atmosphere at
the Jakarta talks was constructive. Vatikiotis said he would
try to find a way to keep the two sides engaged while they
wait for political will to build in Bangkok.


10. (S/NF) Comment: Vatikiotis was ambivalent in his
assessment of the latest round of peace talks; he
characterized the talks as stalled, but with good
atmospherics at the last session. He was hopeful that the
RTG will eventually try to move the peace process forward.
We share his concern that the insurgents will not wait
patiently for the government to decide what it wants to do,
and commit some significant act of violence to draw attention
to the situation. One of the key questions that remains
unanswered is whether Prime Minister Samak will view the
situation in the South as amenable to a political solution,
rather than a strictly military one.
JOHN