Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BANGKOK107
2008-01-10 10:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

PRO-THAKSIN PARTY ON TRACK TO FORM GOVERNMENT,

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM TH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8587
OO RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHBK #0107/01 0101026
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 101026Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1382
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 8193
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 2105
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1581
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5417
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 4147
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 4646
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHFJSCC/COMMARFORPAC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000107 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY ON TRACK TO FORM GOVERNMENT,
PENDING INVESTIGATION OUTCOMES

REF: A. BANGKOK 47 (DOZENS UNDER INVESTIGATION)


B. BANGKOK 11 (COMMISSION CONSIDERS
DISQUALIFICATIONS)

C. 07 BANGKOK 5041

BANGKOK 00000107 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000107

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY ON TRACK TO FORM GOVERNMENT,
PENDING INVESTIGATION OUTCOMES

REF: A. BANGKOK 47 (DOZENS UNDER INVESTIGATION)


B. BANGKOK 11 (COMMISSION CONSIDERS
DISQUALIFICATIONS)

C. 07 BANGKOK 5041

BANGKOK 00000107 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission James F. Entwistle, reason: 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) The pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) appears
poised to bring all parties except for the Democrats into a
formal coalition that would control two-thirds of the House
of Representatives. The Election Commission has yet to
decide the outcome of 58 House races that were under
investigation. Current coalition plans could be disrupted
if, in the coming days, the Election Commission disqualifies
a dramatic number of PPP candidates, or decides to pursue
PPP's dissolution based on alleged vote-buying by a leading
party official. End Summary.

PPP BUILDS BROAD COALITION
--------------


2. (SBU) Barring a drastic step such as the dissolution of
the party (see below),PPP appears likely to hold a
significant plurality in the House of Representatives after
the conclusion of all Election Commission investigations and
re-run elections. This likelihood has enabled the party to
make substantial progress in building a governing coalition.
In recent days, the party leaders of Chart Thai and the
Motherland Party have told the press that they intend to
formally announce their alignment with the pro-Thaksin
People's Power Party (PPP). They will presumably make their
announcements after January 16, which will mark the end of
the official period of mourning for Princess Galyani Vadhana,
the recently-deceased elder sister of King Bhumibol. Chart
Thai and the Motherland Party will join three smaller parties
that have already announced support for PPP. Assuming that
all these parties formally join PPP, the Democrat Party would
be the sole opposition party in the House.


3. (SBU) According to preliminary results from the December
23 election, the coalition that appears likely to form around
PPP should control approximately two-thirds of the 480 seats

in the new House of Representatives. The preliminary results
will change after re-run elections, including some in which
candidates who won seats have been disqualified (see below).
However, the Democrat Party appears unlikely to win a
meaningful number of new seats in the re-run elections; most
of the seats that PPP loses will be won by parties that now
appear aligned with PPP.

INVESTIGATING HOUSE RACES
--------------


4. (SBU) On January 3, the Election Commission certified the
winners in 397 of the 480 races. Sixty-five of the 83
pending cases involved fraud claims against the PPP, with a
handful of claims against the rest of the parties. Over half
the pending cases were in the northeastern Isaan region, a
stronghold of pro-Thaksin support, but also an area in which
vote-buying is believed to be particularly entrenched.


5. (SBU) The Election Commission is working through the
fraud claims before it, and has announced results in 25 of
these cases as of January 10. (Note: The Election Commission
has the authority to order a re-run election in cases where
there is convincing evidence of unfairness; or, it can order
a re-run AND disqualify a candidate from running again, if
there is convincing evidence that he violated the election
law. End note.) Of the PPP cases that were initially
pending but have now been resolved, three candidates have
been disqualified (in Buriram - ref A),11 will face re-runs,

BANGKOK 00000107 002.2 OF 003


and four have been certified to take their seats in the new
Parliament. The ECT has also disqualified two Chart Thai
candidates and one candidate from Matchima Thipathai. One
Democrat will face a re-run, as will one Chart Thai
candidate. (Rounding out the 25 cases, two Democrats were
certified as winning their seats after slight delay.) As of
January 10, 47 PPP candidates continue to await Election
Commission determinations, as do six Motherland candidates
and one each from the Democrat, Chart Thai, and Ruam Jai Thai
Chart Pattana parties.

DUE PROCESS
--------------


6. (SBU) In most cases, the Election Commission has publicly
released scant detail about the precise evidence against
candidates under investigation. In some cases, however,
details have leaked to the press. Allegations against
candidates appear to be based on vote-buying; we are not
aware of any allegations of tampering with ballot boxes,
intentionally distorting vote tallies, or otherwise
corrupting election mechanisms or authorities. It appears
that all candidates who have been under investigation have
been provided with opportunities to present their views to
Election Commission investigators. Although the election law
provides that Election Commission determinations in these
matters are final, some candidates who have been disqualified
have said they will challenge these determinations in court.


7. (C) Reftel reported allegations that Police Major General
Chaiya Siriamphankun, one of the officials investigating
malfeasance by PPP candidates in Buriram, was biased against
PPP. On the weekend of January 5-6, the press reported that
Chaiya had been relieved of his election-related
responsibilities, although election officials made no
acknowledgement of any wrong-doing on his part. The re-run
election in Buriram will take place on January 13. Other
re-run elections should take place soon thereafter, enabling
the House to hold its first session within 30 days of the
election.

PPP DEPUTY LEADER UNDER SCRUTINY
--------------


8. (SBU) The most serious of the remaining cases involves
charges that PPP Deputy Leader Yongyuth Tiyapairath paid
subdistrict headmen to secure political support for him in
Chiang Rai (ref A). This case is significant because
Yongyuth was elected on the party list for zone one, which
includes 11 provinces in the North, and because he is a
member of the executive leadership of the party. According
to the election law (Section 110),if a party member or
official violates the election law for the benefit of the
party, the Election Commission can invalidate the party's
votes in the area affected. (We understand that this was
written to provide for a strong sanction against fraud
affecting the party list vote. Simply disqualifying the
guilty candidate would not have a deterrent effect on the
party, as it would just replace the disqualified candidate
with the next name on the list.) While this is a new
provision, and its application is not entirely clear, it
appears that this sanction could be applied in Yongyuth's
case. If it is, the Election Commission could disqualify all
five of the PPP winners in zone one and reallocate their
seats to the other parties. The Election Commission seems
somewhat uncertain exactly how to apply the law in this case,
judging from its public statements.


9. (SBU) The election law is particularly tough on
transgressions committed by members of a party's executive
committee. Election Law Section 103 states that, where there
is evidence that a member of the Executive Committee of the
party is involved in violations of the election law, the
political party shall be considered to have committed an act
"to obtain powers to rule the country by means not in

BANGKOK 00000107 003.2 OF 003


accordance" with the Constitution, and the Election
Commission "shall... file a motion with the Constitutional
Court to dissolve such political party." If Yongyuth is held
responsible for paying local officials as charged, the
Election Commission may find it difficult not to forward the
case to the Constitutional Court.


10. (SBU) Yongyuth has responded publicly to the allegations
against him by claiming that unspecified persons have
fabricated evidence against him and provided 35 million Baht
(over 1 million USD) to influence officials investigating
PPP. (Note: PPP has previously accused anti-Thaksin activist
Sondhi Limthongkul of conspiring with the Special Branch
police investigator to bring false accusations against PPP
candidates. End note.) Yongyuth also complained that
Special Branch police officials have not allowed him to view
video recordings that purport to document his payoffs to
local officials. Election Commissioners are hearing further
evidence in the case today (January 10),and have said they
hope to conclude their deliberations by Friday, January 11.
In Chiang Rai, Yongyuth supporters told the press they are
planning to hold demonstrations in his support.

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Political discourse has been somewhat muted since
Thailand entered an official mourning period for Princess
Galyani on January 2. The passage of time since the December
23 election has allowed a perception (most likely correct, in
our view) to settle in that, despite pending cases, PPP is
poised to formalize a broad coalition and form a government.
Tensions remain high, however, as the Election Commission
considers the remaining fraud cases, at least one of which
could have very serious consequences for PPP. The
Commissioners seem fully aware that they are under intense
scrutiny and will have to justify whatever actions they take.
The very strict provisions of the election law, however, are
designed to impose very severe penalties for election
violations.
JOHN