PRO-THAKSIN PARTY ANNOUNCES COALITION, SOME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 000010

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PRO-THAKSIN PARTY ANNOUNCES COALITION, SOME
CANDIDATES DISQUALIFIED, THAIS MOURN PRINCESS' DEATH

REF: 07 BANGKOK 6280 (PPP WRANGLING)

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Classified By: Ambassador Eric G. John, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) The pro-Thaksin People's Power Party (PPP) has
announced a coalition with sufficient partners to ensure a
slim majority in the House of Representatives. This
coalition could fall apart if the Election Commission
disqualifies a large number of PPP candidates as it continues
investigating complaints; we have confirmed press reports of
three PPP legislators' disqualification. Two mid-sized
parties appear to lean toward joining PPP's coalition; if
they do so, it would leave the Democrat Party as the sole
opposition party. The January 2 death of the King's elder
sister has prompted the RTG to declare a 15-day period of
mourning, but this appears unlikely to affect the return to
elected governance. End Summary.

A MAJORITY IN THAKSIN'S CORNER
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2. (SBU) On December 31, People's Power Party (PPP) leader
Samak Sundaravej appeared publicly with leading figures from
the Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Matchima, and Pracharaj
parties to announce their cooperation in a coalition. These
parties should control 254 of the 480 seats in the House of
Representatives, according to preliminary, uncertified
election results, providing them with a thin majority (52.9
percent).

PPP COULD DRAW MORE PARTNERS
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3. (SBU) PPP appears to be in continuing talks with the Chart
Thai and Motherland Parties, which won a combined total of 61
seats in the December 23 election (according to preliminary,
uncertified results). Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-Archa
announced on December 27 that he and his Motherland
colleagues would only join a PPP government if PPP were to
agree to five conditions:

- Revering the Monarchy;

- Respecting Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda;

- Foreswearing revenge against political opponents;

- Allowing judicial proceedings against deposed PM Thaksin
Shinawatra to continue; and

- Maintaining the Asset Examination Committee (AEC) appointed
by the 2006 coup leaders to build cases against Thaksin.


4. (C) PPP figures had pledged to dissolve the AEC, and they
have publicly alluded in derogatory terms to Privy Council
President Prem. (In mid-December, PPP leader Samak
criticized the political maneuvers of an unnamed
"white-haired closet homosexual" -- a widely understood
reference to Prem.) Nevertheless, it was easy for PPP
officials to respond that some of Banharn's conditions (e.g.,
reverence for the Monarchy) were consistent with PPP
policies. This exchange appeared to provide Banharn with the
face-saving mechanism necessary for him to ditch his former
ally, the Democrat Party. Some Chart Thai officials said
publicly they expected to join with PPP, although there had
been no formal announcement of this stance; the death of the
King's sister (see below) appears to have delayed formal
announcements of political alignments.

ELECTION COMMISSION MIGHT AFFECT THE BALANCE
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5. (C) We expect the Election Commission (EC) to certify most
election results (except those requiring further
investigation of complaints) no later than January 4. On
January 2, an EC contact confirmed privately to us that, as
reported by the media, three PPP candidates were in the
process of disqualification for vote-buying in the
northeastern province of Buriram. When formalized, these
disqualifications will reduce the current PPP coalition
strength to 251 House seats, pending the results of a
by-election. Due to other reports of irregularities, the EC
will also re-run three constituency races won by PPP
candidates (with the PPP candidates eligible to stand for
election again) in coming days. Our EC source did not
clarify whether any other disqualifications were in the
works; it remains unclear how many other legislators-elect
might lose seats due to EC rulings. (See septel for further
information on EC processes.)


6. (C) Somchai Juengprasert, one of Thailand's five Election
Commissioners, drew public notice on January 1 when stating
publicly that he hoped to resign his position on the EC. His
announcement may hint at political pressure being placed upon
and within the EC. PPP officials and their allies have
publicly warned that the EC may disqualify an inordinate
number of PPP candidates on the basis of weak allegations,
either because of the EC's bias or because of pressure from
military figures. PPP's opponents have not alleged that PPP
or its allies have also sought to pressure the EC behind the
scenes.

MOURNING THE KING'S SISTER
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7. (C) Following a protracted illness, King Bhumibol's elder
sister, Princess Galyani Vadhana, died in a Bangkok hospital
in the early morning hours of January 2. The RTG has
declared a 15-day formal mourning period. We have posted a
condolence message on the Embassy's website
(http://bangkok.usembassy.gov). We do not expect the
Princess' death to affect the EC announcement of election
results, or the return to elected governance. Her death
appears to have forestalled public maneuvers by political
parties, however, with Chart Thai delaying a
previously-planned January 2 announcement of its orientation.
We expect informal negotiations among political actors to
continue during the mourning period.

COMMENT
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8. (C) With two medium-size parties still in play, PPP is
trying to maintain its momentum and cement the view that it
and its junior partners will form the next government. The
media has begun reinforcing this expectation by speculating
on who will hold cabinet seats in a PPP-led administration.
Nevertheless, given the realistic possibility of further
candidate disqualifications, it would be premature to anoint
PPP's formal leader, Samak Sundaravej, as Prime Minister
prior to the Election Commission's announcement of formal
results.
JOHN