NORTHERN MALI: ALGIERS ACCORDS OPTIMISM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000901

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PINS PINR ML
SUBJECT: NORTHERN MALI: ALGIERS ACCORDS OPTIMISM
OVERSHADOWS BAHANGA'S RETURN

REF: BAMAKO 00624

Classified By: Political Officer Aaron Sampson, Embassy Bamako,
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1.(C) Summary: The Algiers Accords oversight committee met in
Kidal November 15-17 to discuss reductions in Malian troop
levels per the Algiers Accords and a timeline for the
creation of one mixed military unit by December 30. Ibrahim
Bahanga, who returned to Mali after a month long sojourn in
Libya, was invited to participate but did not attend and sent
no one from his Northern Mali Tuareg Alliance for Change
(ATNMC) in his place. On November 18 Bahanga's Paris-based
father-in-law issued a statement on behalf of the ATNMC
declaring that no meeting between the Malian government and
"Tuareg rebels" occurred. The statement also warned that
movements by the Malian military could provoke "serious
repercussions" in the days ahead. Following the committee
meeting, Alliance for Democracy and Change (ADC) spokesman
and National Assembly Deputy Ahmada ag Bibi left Kidal to
return to the ADC's base in Tigharghar to brief fellow ADC
members, then meet with Ibrahim Bahanga. Although Mali and
the ADC appear equally optimistic, clouds still loom on the
horizon. Bahanga's position, and the fate of the four Malian
military officers he is still holding, remain unknown. Nor
is it clear who would command a mixed military unit provided
one is created by the end of December. End Summary.

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Kidal Rendez-Vous
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2.(C) The Algiers Accords oversight committee, composed of
representatives from the Malian government, Algeria and the
Tuareg rebel Alliance for Democracy and Change (ADC),
convened in Kidal on November 15-17 to discuss future steps
toward implementing the Accords. ADC spokesman and National
Assembly Deputy Ahmada ag Bibi led the Tuareg contingent,
along with fellow rebels Cheick ag Aoussa and Bayen ag
Akhawali. Five Malian government Ministers happened to be in
Kidal during the November 15-17 time frame, but only two of
these - Minister of Territorial Administration Kafougouna
Kone and Minister of Internal Security Sadio Gassama -
participated in talks with the ADC. The Ministers of
Tourism, Culture, and Transportation traveled to Kidal to
celebrate the opening of the Kidal "tourist" season.

3.(C) On November 19 ag Bibi told the Embassy's locally
employed Tuareg political specialist that the three-way
discussions produced tangible results and that all of the
Malian military's check-points and patrols around Kidal would
be handed over to members of a newly-created mixed military
unit composed of re-integrated Tuareg rebel fighters and
Malian soldiers by December 30. This would fulfill
stipulations in the Algiers Accords requiring the Malian
military to reduce its footprint in the north to pre-May 2006
levels. Ag Bibi left Kidal after the meeting to return to the
ADC's base in Tigharghar to brief the ADC's rank and file.

4.(C) Kidal's Governor, Alhamadou ag Illyene, was also
optimistic. He told the Embassy that ADC members selected to
serve in mixed military units would begin returning to Kidal
as early as December 2 and would help fill the security
vacuum left by repositioned Malian soldiers. On November 19
Kader Bah, who is a senior official within the Ministry of
Territorial Administration and a close confidant of
Kafougouna Kone and President Amadou Toumani Toure, confirmed
that a tentative agreement had been reached but cautioned
that Algeria was running the show and that Mali's over-riding
interest for the moment was reducing tensions in Kidal in
order to ensure the success of upcoming municipal elections
scheduled for May or June 2009. Bah complained that that the
mixed unit was largely an Algerian creation.

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All-Drama Bahanga
--------------

5.(C) Ag Bibi told the Embassy he will also try to persuade
Bahanga to either participate in the Algiers Accords
implementation process or simply lie low. Bahanga's return
to northern Mali was particularly unwelcome. Many Tuaregs
believed Bahanga had moved to Libya permanently, citing
rumors that Bahanga had shifted his family from the Algerian
town of Tamanrasset to Tripoli and had received a house from
Qadhafi One person likely pleased by Bahanga's reappearance
was Hama ag Sid'Ahmed, Bahanga's Paris-based father-in-law
and ATNMC spokesman. In July the Algerian Ambassador to Mali
prevailed on Sid'Ahmed to restrain his penchant for ill-timed

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and ill-worded communiques, resulting in several
statement-free months from Sid'Ahmed (reftel). Perhaps eager
to make up for lost time, on November 18 Sid'Ahmed issued a
statement on behalf of the ATNMC accusing the Malian
government of "rejecting all attempts for constructive
dialogue with the Tuareg Alliance" and said the ATNMC
interpreted this "rejection" as synonymous with an invitation
to the use of force. Sid'Ahmed complained that "thousands"
of Malian soldiers had arrived in Kidal during the week and
warned that "this provocative statement by Malian government
authorities could have serious repercussions on the ground in
the days to come."


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Comment: Bahanga is in the Details
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6.(C) Optimism emanating from the November 15-17 meeting
Kidal largely overshadowed concerns regarding Bahanga's
unwelcome return to northern Mali. However, members of the
Algiers Accords oversight committee left, perhaps purposely,
several sensitive issues unresolved. One of the most
important issues is the command of a new mixed unit. There
seems to be little consensus within the ranks of Tuareg
rebels regarding who should command the new unit. Various
Tuareg factions have already floated three names. Kidal's
ruling Intallah family is believed to favor ADC commander Bah
Moussa. Members of the Tuareg Kel Ireyakkan fraction, which
includes ADC leader Iyad ag Ghali, seem to prefer ADC member
and Malian army Captain Ibrahim ag Banna. Bahanga and the
ATNMC's preferred candidate is probably Hassan Fagaga who
recently deserted the ATNMC to rejoin the ADC but still
belongs to Bahanga's Ifergoumessen fraction of Kidal Tuareg
Ifoghas. This poses a problem for the Malians since all
three of these individuals are implicated in the capture and
killing of Malian soldiers. Of these, Fagaga is probably the
least likely choice given his unpredictability and the fact
that the last time he was named mixed unit commander he went
AWOL to join Bahanga.

7.(C) Bahanga's position is somewhat weaker than it was
earlier this year. Fagaga and other key ATNMC members'
defection back to the ADC, coupled with Bahanga's turn toward
Libya, have weakened the ATNMC. Yet Bahanga still holds four
Malian military officers as bargaining chips and could derail
the entire process by embarking on another of his quixotic
attacks against Malian military patrols.
MILOVANOVIC