Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAKU996
2008-10-16 16:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#4 10/16

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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OO RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHKB #0996/01 2901606
ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY ADXF5663A MSI7300-623)
O 161606Z OCT 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0208
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES IMMEDIATE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA IMMEDIATE 3094
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 1157
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000996 

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA MARKINGS NUMBERS)

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#4 10/16
20:00 BAKU

BAKU 00000996 001.4 OF 002


Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Rob Garverick for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000996

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARA MARKINGS NUMBERS)

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION SITREP#4 10/16
20:00 BAKU

BAKU 00000996 001.4 OF 002


Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Rob Garverick for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) Central Elections Commission Chief (CEC) Mazahir
Panahov gave a press brief on October 16 to provide the
latest information on the election. As of the last briefing,
which was given at 12:00 Baku time, the CEC had received
information from 70 percent of the precincts. According to
the CEC, voter turnout was 75.64 percent. Candidates' share
of the votes was reported as follows: President Aliyev
(88.64),Igbal Agazade (2.87),Fazil Gazanfaroglu Mustafayev
(2.5),Gudrat Hasanguliyev (2.3),Gulamhuseyn Alibayli
(2.25),Fuad Aliyev (0.78),and Hafiz Hajiyev (0.65).


2. (C) The OSCE/ODIHR, the Parliamentary Assembly of the
Council of Europe, and the European Parliament released on
October 16 the International Election Observation Mission
joint statement concerning Azerbaijan's presidential
election. The joint statement was more critical than expected
in its detailed discussion of the pre-election environment as
part of its overall assessment. The statement offers credit
to the government for making considerable progress towards
meeting Azerbaijan's international commitments but notes that
the election did not meet all commitments. The election,
though peaceful, took place in an environment lacking robust
competition and vibrant political discourse and therefore did
not reflect all the principles of a meaningful and
pluralistic democratic election. The statement calls
regrettable the boycott of major opposition parties, who cite
long-standing obstacles to equal opportunities, because it
limited the scope for a credible choice for voters.


3. (U) The assessment of the election-day proceedings was
largely positive, making note of the total freedom from
election violence and the well-organized and efficient
character of most polling stations. Polls opened on time in
most cases, the voter lists were of improved quality from
previous elections, and interference by authorities in the

work of the election administration appeared to be reduced.
The statement also gives the Central Election Commission
credit for publishing the results of precincts intermittently
throughout the night and making voter lists easily
accessible. The Mission assessed the vote-counting and
tabulation as more negative than the voting, noting
significant procedural shortcomings and in some instances
manipulation.


4. (U) More critical than the election-day assessment were
the joint statement's concerns about the pre-election
environment. The statement included a criticism of the
declining media situation, saying the majority of electronic
media coverage was devoted to the activities of government
officials which benefited the incumbent. News outlets did not
provide balanced coverage of the campaign, limiting the
ability of voters to make an informed choice. The statement
also highlighted the blurred distinction between President's
Aliyev's official duties and campaign activities. The
statement also notes several shortcomings including the lack
of broad confidence in the election commissions, the refusal
by Baku executive authorities to allow opposition parties to
hold an outdoor meeting, and the sedated nature of the
campaign. In his remarks at the presentation of the joint
statement in Baku, Andres Herkel, co-rapporteur on Azerbaijan
from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,
likened the positive election-day procedure to "an excellent
swimming exercise in an empty pool." The joint statement also
notes positive aspects of the pre-election environment
including the regular debates among the six opposition
candidates, the removal of President Aliyev's official
portraits from billboards around the country before the
campaign began, and several amendments to the electoral code
which benefited the voting process. For most of these
positive developments, however, the statement includes
drawbacks which prevented them from fully yielding positive
results.


5. (C) In a private conversation with Embassy officer, UK
Embassy officer Declan Byrne was generally upbeat about the
conduct of the election. (Only the U.S. and U.K. Embassies
fielded their own election observation missions.) Byrne said
the election was the most clean Azerbaijani election, and the
UK observers did not detect any instances of mass fraud. The
UK observation mission did notice, however, some

BAKU 00000996 002.3 OF 002


disorganization during the counting of votes and some
attempts to boost voter turnout while the polls were open.


6. (SBU) Because of concerns about the status of the
organization, Azerbaijani citizens associated with the
de-registered Election Monitoring Center, which conducted the
only parallel vote tabulation (PVT) for the election, also
released a preliminary statement on October 16. EMC's
central argument is that the actual conduct of the election
was fairly clean, but the broader political climate --
especially the freedoms of assembly, speech, and press and
the need for a vibrant political discourse -- has not
improved. The statement notes: "While there have been
improvements in the conduct of the formal process on election
day, the larger problems of the electoral environment mean
that the election does not fully meet international standards
and cannot be considered as free or fair." The statement
also notes that while there were a few serious incidents at
polling stations, the number of such observed problems were
relatively limited.


7. (SBU) There is not a large difference between EMC's
preliminary PVT data and the official CEC data. According to
the PVT, candidates' share of the votes was reported as
follows: President Aliyev (89.1),Igbal Agazade (2.9),Fazil
Gazanfaroglu Mustafayev (1.9),Gudrat Hasanguliyev (2.0),
Gulamhuseyn Alibayli (2.4),Fuad Aliyev (0.9),and Hafiz
Hajiyev (0.7). There is a gap, however, between the EMC and
CEC information on voter turnout, with the CEC reporting 75.6
percent and EMC reporting 67.9 percent.


8. (SBU) Earlier today in Baku, the CIS election monitoring
team released its own report on Azerbaijan's presidential
election. While criticizing the efforts and behavior of
ODIHR observers, the CIS heaped praise on the GOAJ's conduct
of the election. Moscow press later in the day reported that
President Medvedev had called President Aliyev to
congratulate him on his re-election.


9. (SBU) Pro-government media in Azerbaijan today released
a number of stories highlighting positive and complimentary
statements from domestic and international sources. Several
stories referred to "American observers," though these
observers were not affiliated with the U.S. Government.
DERSE