AZERBAIJAN: ELECTION UPATE, OCTOBER 10-14

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000980


SIPDIS

EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUMPREL RS GG AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: ELECTION UPATE, OCTOBER 10-14

REF: A. BAKU 454

B. BAKU 353

Classified By: POLITICAL-ECONOMIC COUNSELOR ROB GARVERICK, for reasons
1.4 (b,d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Election Monitoring Center (EMC) and
the Institute for Reporters' Freedom and Safety released
pre-election, interim reports October 10 and 11,
respectively, noting certain improvements in the election
process, while raising concerns about the slow handling of
complaints by the CEC, misuse of administrative resources,
television bias for President Aliyev, and, more broadly, a
general lack of political discourse in the campaign.
Azerbaijan's CEC Chairman, in an October 13 meeting with
Embassy officials, sought to clarify these points. Local
commentators, meanwhile, separately suggested the likelihood
of fraud to bolster voter turnout and, in a broader sense,
outlined poor prospects for the opposition. The EMC and the
Norwegian Embassy observer missions experienced problems in
registering election observers, though some issues were
addressed. Traditional opposition parties held a rally
October 11 to encourage a boycott of the election, but the
appeal lacked cohesion. The Open Society Party, which is not
fielding a presidential candidate, decided last week it would
endorse Aliyev for reelection, to the chagrin of other
oppositionists. END SUMMARY

EMC ISSUES REPORT AND NOTES REGISTRATION PROBLEMS
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) The Election Monitoring Center (EMC),the
independent monitoring group which was granted registration
by the GOAJ in February and subsequently deregistered (see
REF A),on October 10 released its second interim report on
findings during this second stage of its long-term
observation mission. EMC noted a significant improvement in
the level of activity of Constituency and Precinct Election
Commissions but remains concerned with the Central Election
Commission's (CEC) slow investigation of complaints, noting
such complaints are not being heard by the official experts
group which was created by amendments to the election code.
The report identifies several problems with voter lists in
specific constituencies and records a list of twelve
instances of government officials pressuring citizens to vote
for President Aliyev.


3. (C) Experts from the International Foundation for Election
Systems (IFES) agreed with this assessment of the CEC's
mishandling of election complaints, and have been working
with the CEC over the past week to correct this problem.
According to an IFES expert, the Election Code states that
the "Mass Media Council," which has handled campaign
complaints so far, is meant to deal only with complaints
about access to media, not larger campaign-related
complaints. Campaign complaints are meant to be handled by
an "expert group" created for this purpose. Embassy
officials raised these concerns October 13 with CEC Chairman
Mazahir Panahov, who continued to insist that campaign
complaints should be handled initially by the "Mass Media
Council" rather than the expert group. Panahov agreed,
however, that Election Day complaints by voters would be
addressed by the experts group.


4. (SBU) While the report notes no problems with
registration of observers overall, the EMC reported to the
Embassy late on October 10 that the body was now experiencing
problems registering observers in two constituencies.
Embassy officials worked with the CEC to remedy the problem
in one constituency, but the Constituency Election Commission
in Zagatala still refuses to register 8 EMC observers,
claiming their documentation was late. While this is only
one Constituency, EMC reports that the lack of registered
observers in these areas will affect the outcome of the
Parallel Vote Tabulation.


5. (C) Norwegian Embassy in Baku's First Secretary Richard
Scarborough has reported to Embassy officials that the
Norwegian Embassy was unable to register 10 Norwegian
citizens that were supposed to help the Norwegian Embassy
monitor the election. According to Scarborough, the CEC
first claimed that they did not receive the proper
documentation, and when presented with the proper
documentation then claimed that the documentation was
falsified, as some of the applicants were not full time
employees of the Embassy. The list of denied applicants
includes two members of Norway's Helsinki Commission, who
were also denied accreditation in 2005. This information
contradicts what CEC Chairman Panahov told Embassy officials
on October 13, which was that all international observers who
applied for accreditation were given it.

COMMENTATORS OFFER DOWNCAST DEPICTION OF POLITICS
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Embassy officers attended a panel discussion of
local political experts on October 10 which featured
commentators Ilgar Mammedov, Leyla Aliyeva, and Erkin
Gadirli. The panelists each expected mass falsification to
bolster what is thought would be the lowest voter turnout
since independence. While Ilgar Mammedov said local
authorities would compel people in their areas to vote, he
agreed with Leyla Aliyeva that fraud is being
centrally-directed. He also identified the public opinion
polls showing not only high support for Aliyev but also high
probable voter turnout as efforts to prepare public reaction
for the falsified numbers after the polls close on Wednesday.
Following Erkin Gadirli's comments on the lack of party
politics in Azerbaijan, Aliyeva said she did not think the
opposition's problem was the over-personalization of the
parties or lack of change in their ranks, but rather the
fundamental lack of space for pluralism built into the
system. Both Mammedov, who argued the opposition parties were
totally discredited and finished in politics, and Gadirli
said they see very little hope of change coming from within
the system.


7. (U) Later that day, Mammedov commented at panel sponsored
by the International Center for Journalists that the limited
public space available for criticism of the President or the
government in opposition papers and on the internet should
not be seen as an achievement, as some in government suggest,
but rather as a sign that independent voices have lost ground
in the past five years. Other panelists included Member of
Parliament Aydin Mirzazade, the Norwegian Ambassador, and
representatives of advocacy groups and the media. A
journalist from Zerkalo described the decline in the
availability of advertising income for opposition and
independent print outlets in the last five years as a major
problem for establishing a pluralist press, noting that the
pro-government Trend news agency can pay its journalists five
times what opposition Turan news agency can.

MEDIA MONITORING REPORTS
--------------


8. (U) Media monitoring reports released over the weekend by
the Institute for Reporters, Freedom and Safety (IRFS) and
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) were critical of the election
coverage by most Azerbaijani media outlets. IFRS noted a lack
of vibrant political discourse on television and a general
absence of critical mass media underscoring the inability of
Aliyev's opponents to pose questions to him directly. While
print media offered a greater diversity of views, the
coverage on state-controlled TV and most private channels
demonstrated bias in favor of Aliyev. Public TV did reduce
its reporting on the incumbent's activities and allocated
some news coverage to other candidates and ANS provided the
most diversity in its coverage of the candidates. RSF also
noted a lack of political debate and reported that the media
outlets it monitored from September 21 to 26 covered mostly
the activities of the first family, emphasized government
reforms, and ignored controversial social topics and the
government refusal of an opposition rally in Baku.

BOYCOTTING OPPOSITION PARTIES HOLD MEETING
--------------


9. (U) On October 11 the five opposition parties which are
boycotting the election held a meeting in Baku to discuss
their views. About 170 people attended the meeting, forcing
the organizers to move the meeting from a conference room to
the courtyard outside Musavat Party Headquarters. The
leaders of the five parties denounced President Aliyev and
encouraged voters to boycott the election. An Embassy
official who attended the meeting witnessed no police or
security services present, and the meeting was conducted
peacefully. Leaders of the five opposition parties, however,
were not yet able to agree on a path forward.

OPPOSITION PARTY REPORTEDLY BACKS ALIYEV
--------------


10. (U) Exiled Opposition leader Rasul Guliyev's Open Society
Party (OSP),which is not fielding a candidate in the
election, announced last week it would endorse President
Ilham Aliyev's re-election bid. Local press quoted acting
party Chairman Akif Sahbazov as saying the party would remain
in opposition but supported stability as well as Aliyev's
foreign policy and policy on Nagorno-Karabakh.


11. (U) Various other parties have reacted to OSP's decision
in different ways. Opposition People's Front Party, also not
participating in the election, expressed regret and said OSP
had &no right to speak on behalf of the opposition.8 A
spokesman for Musavat, another party not fielding a
candidate, attributed the decision to pro-government forces
within the party's structures, arguing Guliyev does not
support the authorities. The official also predicted these
members will not override Guliyev's position.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) The fact that EMC has been able to gain
accreditation for over 1500 observers despite de-registration
as an NGO last spring is a positive sign. Some last minute
concerns about the organization's role on election day have
been voiced, but overall the GOAJ seems to be listening to
concerns and complaints from the international community and
working to address them. The continued existence of problems
in some regions, however, indicates that local officials may
not understand the need to work with observers. In another
worrying sign for future cooperation, the CEC Chairman
refused to look at the most recent EMC report when an Embassy
official referred to it, stating that EMC does not have legal
standing in Azerbaijan. Additionally, the refusal of the CEC
to register observers from Norway is a troubling sign that
the GOAJ is inconsistent in accreditation practices.


13. (C) On the domestic political front, it remains unclear
whether the OSP decision to endorse President Aliyev's
campaign comes from party officials in Azerbaijan or from
Guliyev himself. The endorsement is an abrupt change from the
party's previous position but may not be entirely surprising
considering the state of and prospects for opposition parties
in Azerbaijan or Guliyev's life in exile. The OSP, a small
party even among Azerbaijan's small opposition parties, is
the result of a 2006 break in Guliyev's Azerbaijan Democratic
Party, now led by Guliyev's former deputy Sardar Jalaloglu.
It is possible party officials in Azerbaijan are seeking to
reach an understanding with the government. It is also
possible Guliyev himself recognizes the dim prospects for any
return to the political scene and is seeking instead
permission to return to Azerbaijan, even temporarily, in a
way that the government does not perceive as threatening (see
REF B).
DERSE