AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000979

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ELECTION ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTH AND SOUTH

Classified By: Political and Economic Counselor Robert Garverick,
for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During late September, Embassy officials
visited both Azerbaijan's second largest city, Ganja, which
is located in the north, and several small villages in the
Lankaran region in the south to assess the pre-election
political environment. Local officials in both regions
seemed aware of changes to the election code, and were
anxious to show Embassy officials that they were in
compliance. Preparations for conducting the election
appeared to be on track. In both places, citizen interest in
the election was low, however, and therefore turnout on
Election Day may also be low. Election observers note that
this may be an area where GOAJ officials turn to fraud in
order to improve the appearance of President Aliyev's
popularity. END SUMMARY

FROM THE NORTH: LITTLE POLITICAL DISCOURSE IN GANJA
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2. (C) On September 23-24 Embassy officials traveled to
Ganja, Azerbaijan's second largest city, to assess the
political environment ahead of the October 15 presidential
election. In a meeting with Embassy officials, the head of
Ganja's Executive Committee, Eldar Azizov, praised the city's
effort to take down all posters of President Ilham Aliyev, in
accordance with the President's pre-election decree. Azizov
also noted that democratic and economic reforms in Ganja were
succeeding as a result of Aliyev's leadership and the
dedication of local authorities. Embassy officials confirm
that all non-election related posters have been removed, but
Aliyev's campaign posters have sprouted up in shop windows
around the city, with the net effect still being that the
President's image is omnipresent in Ganja. The other
candidates' posters are relegated to the official poster
boards outside of polling stations.


3. (C) In a separate meeting, Akifa Aliyeva, coordinator of
the Helsinki Citizens Assembly in Ganja, offered a much
different picture of the political environment in Ganja. She
noted that there were no officially sanctioned sites for
opposition parties to host political meetings in Ganja. She
also reported that activities by the opposition are heavily
restricted, as business owners are under pressure from the
authorities to avoid renting their venues for political
events. Recently, opposition parties have resorted to
gathering at teahouses, but these too are coming under
pressure to refuse service. Many citizens are thus
unfamiliar with the candidates or do not see them as an
alternative to the current administration. While she
described the election environment as "calm" relative to
previous elections, Aliyeva said that the majority of Ganja
residents plan to abstaiQrom voting as a protest against
the unfair conditions that have been created by the
authorities. She expected that the Election Commission will
inflate voter turnout data to mask this situation.

FROM THE SOUTH: LANKARAN REGION TRIES TO FOLLOW NEW LAW
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Embassy officials also traveled through the southern
region of Lankaran September 28-30 to assess the
pre-election environment. In the small mountain villages
between Masally and Larik, the approaching election was more
evident than in most parts of Baku. Large red banners across
the main mountain road in each town announced the October 15
election, and polling places were clearly marked. Bus
stations along the road also prominently featured voter
education advertisements.


5. (C) In Guneshli, a small village in the mountains
northwest of Lankaran, Embassy officials visited the
village's polling station with the two members of the
Precinct Election Commission (PEC). The polling station was
located on the second floor of the village elementary school,
recently built by the Heydar Aliyev Foundation. The voter
list was prominently posted outside the polling room, with
419 voters listed. The polling station itself was already
prepared for election day, and patrolled on the outside by at
least one member of the PEC at all times. The PEC members
were anxious to know from Embassy officials whether their
preparations were in accordance with the law, and seemed very
proud of their work. According to the Deputy Chairman of the
PEC, everyone is free to vote for whomever they choose, but
there is little discussion in the village about the election.
He reported that town residents were more worried about the
serious lack of economic opportunities in the region, than
about politics.


6. (C) In a separate discussion, local agricultural
development expert Shahin Abbasov also told Embassy officials
that there is little interest in the election within the
community. Most citizens know that President Aliyev will win
re-election, and therefore they see no reason to vote. In
addition, Abbasov felt that the level of corruption in
Azerbaijan was so high, that if any new person came into
power, that person and their inner circle would steal more
from the country, and therefore there was no reason to vote
to bring someone new into power.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) In both the northern city of Ganja, and the rural
villages of the south, citizen interest in the election is
low. President Aliyev's re-election is seen as inevitable,
and the other candidates are not judged to be a better
alternative for the country. Despite local officials'
attempts to inform voters and attract them to polling
stations, it is probable that actual turnout on election day
will be low. If the official get-out-the-vote strategies do
not work, GOAJ officials may turn to fraud to increase the
turnout figure, according to election observers.
DERSE