AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ALL QUIET ON THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000977

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ELECTION 2008: ALL QUIET ON THE
SUMQAYIT FRONT

Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Rob Garverick, for reasons
1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: During a trip to Sumqayit to gauge the
pre-election environment, the head of the local Yeni
Azerbaijan Party (YAP) told the Embassy that YAP has been at
the forefront of grassroots campaigning. The official
believes President Aliyev will win by 85-90 percent, with
65-75 percent of the electorate voting. Staff working for
Umid (Hope) Chair Igbal Agazade's campaign complained about
election-related abuses, while struggling to articulate
Agazade's platform. Agazade's staff and local civil society
activists alleged YAP and local officials are using several
tactics to get out the vote for President Aliyev because
voter turnout will be below 30 percent if administrative
resources are not employed to boost election-day turnout.
Voter apathy and the asymmetry between President Aliyev and
the other candidates appear to the key trends in this
election. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Embassy officer conducted meetings in Sumqayit on
October 9 to gauge pre-election conditions. Sumqayit is
Azerbaijan's third largest city after Baku and Ganja, with a
population of approximately 350,000. Sumqayit could be
considered a suburb of Baku, however, as it is only about 20
miles from Baku. Sumqayit probably is best known as a
Soviet-era industrial zone. The town is littered with
hollowed-out factories.

YAP Chief Smells Victory
--------------


3. (C) The chief of the Sumqayit Yeni Azerbaijan Party (YAP)
branch, Asif Imamaliyev, told us he hopes for 65-75 percent
voter participation in Sumqayit on election-day and that
President Aliyev will win by 85-90 percent. Imamaliyev said
approximately 4,000 of 16,000 Sumqayit-based YAP members have
worked on President Aliyev's campaign. The local YAP branch
has organized 15 meetings or rallies with Sumqayit residents
since the campaign season opened, with approximately 300-400
attending each event. When asked about Sumqayit voters' key
concerns, Imamaliyev said voters no longer have the same
level of socioeconomic concerns as life increasingly is
getting better for the population. Whereas the general
public had widespread economic problems five years ago, now
people "have to look to find problems." Imamaliyev said
Sumqayit residents do not appear attracted to the other six
candidates running against President Aliyev.

Umid (Hope) Party: Hope in What?
--------------


4. (C) Staff members working for Umid (Hope) Chair Igbal
Agazade focused their comments on alleged election abuses,
they were at pains to articulate Agazade's political
platform. The staffers said their election posters are
placed in low-visibility areas and routinely torn down. They
also said local official are creating obstacles for meeting
with voters, forcing them to meet in neighborhood courtyards.
When pressed about the substance of Agazade's platform, they
said Agazade's top priorities are fighting corruption and
creating a multi-party system within the government. They
said they have handed out 40,000 letters outlining Agazade's
platform to Sumqayit residents.


5. (C) Agazade's staff reiterated local NGO representatives'
claims that YAP and local officials are relying on unofficial
measures to get out the vote for President Aliyev.
Specifically, supervisors at factories, hospitals, and
budgetary organizations are being pressured to recruit 10
people to vote for President Aliyev.

Civil Society: Quietest Election Ever
--------------


6. (C) In a roundtable with ten local civil society
activists, participants suggested the general public is not
interested in the election and it has shaped up to be the
quietest election in Azerbaijan's post-independence history.
One activist observed that Sumqayit residents are more
interested in and aware of the central issues in the U.S.

presidential election than the Azerbaijan election. Several
participants warned about the long-term trend being
reinforced by this election: a hardening distrust and
between the public and the government and a broader
skepticism toward the political process.


7. (C) Most participants cited voter turnout as the key
challenge for the GOAJ. Participants believed the maximum
turnout figure in Sumqayit and throughout Azerbaijan would be
30 percent. Most participants estimated that after the
election, the Central Election Commission will claim 85-90
percent voter turnout, with President Aliyev winning by 70-80
percent. Several participants alleged the remaining 20-30
percent would be distributed among the other candidates and
the government would then seek to showcase one or two of
these candidates as the "new opposition" to undercut the
traditional opposition, which has largely boycotted the
current election. Participants flagged Igbal Agazade as the
most likely candidate to be groomed as the symbol of the "new
opposition." Most of the participants alleged that none of
the six candidates running against Aliyev should be
considered authentic opposition candidates, as they are
wittingly or unwittingly being manipulated by the GOAJ.


8. (C) Participants said local officials are using several
mechanisms to get out the vote for President Aliyev because
officials are concerned about low turnout. Multiple
participants said teachers, doctors, factory bosses, the
heads of municipal offices, and especially military units are
being pressured or paid to get at least 10 people to show up
at the polls and vote for President Aliyev. Others said many
soldiers are being forced to stay in their units until after
the election to ensure they vote for President Aliyev.
Participants also claimed local officials and the preceding
categories of residents are unofficially trying to collect
residents' names and identity card numbers. (NOTE: Like
most post-Soviet states, Azerbaijanis are issued national
identity cards. These cards are regarded as extremely
important because citizens need them for conducting any
routine business with local or state bureaucracies. END
NOTE.) This information appeared to be collected for
different reasons, but the Embassy believes the primary
reasons is for teachers, doctors, factory bosses, etc. to
show their superiors that they have recruited a particular
number of voters for President Aliyev. Some employees at
schools, factories, and municipal offices also are reportedly
being threatened with unemployment if they do not show up at
the polls. One participant alleged that numbered ballots are
being handed out in advance to some voters to ensure they
vote for Aliyev. (NOTE: The Embassy cannot confirm or deny
these allegations, but they parallel what other contacts have
told us, but it is impossible to know how far these tactics
are being employed.)

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Voter apathy and President Aliyev's campaign's
preponderance over the other candidates appear to be the
overwhelming themes of the October 15 election. The greatest
potential area for election engineering is voter turnout.
Absent unofficial cajoling, most commentators believe only
about 20-30 percent of the electorate will show up, but GOAJ
insiders -- alongside overly ambitious local officials --
probably perceive this figure is too embarrassing and will
seek to pad the turnout numbers substantially.
DERSE