AZERBAIJAN 2008 ELECTION: WHO ARE THE OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000935

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN 2008 ELECTION: WHO ARE THE OPPOSITION
CANDIDATES?

REF: A. BAKU 856

B. BAKU 882

Classified By: Political Economic Counselor Rob Garverick, for reasons
1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The campaign for the presidency of
Azerbaijan began on September 17, with current president
Ilham Aliyev and six other candidates competing. Major
campaign themes, to the extent that they are voiced, include
increasing the power of the parliament, fighting corruption,
and "liberating" Nagorno Karabagh. None of the six
opposition candidates is well positioned to run a competitive
campaign against the current president. This combined with
the decision by the five traditional opposition leaders to
boycott the election indicates that this election will not be
competitive. Political commentators are looking to voter
turnout as the key metric to judge popular interest in the
political life of the country, and most expect it to be below
30%, unless artificially boosted by intervening officials.
END SUMMARY

CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION REGISTERS SEVEN CANDIDATES
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2. (C) In accordance with the amended election code, the
official campaign for Azerbaijan's presidency began on
September 17. In total, the Central Election Commission
(CEC) registered seven candidates. These include: incumbent
President Ilham Aliyev (New Azerbaijan Party); Igbal Agazade
(Hope Party); Gulamhuseyn Alibayli (Intellectuals Party);
Fuad Aliyev (Liberal Democratic Party); Fazil Gazanfaroglu
Mustafayev (Great Establishment Party); Gudrat Hasanguliyev
(Whole Azerbaijan Party); Hafiz Hajiyev (Modern Musavat
Party). This cable will describe the six opposition
candidates and assess the status of their campaigns.


3. (C) As reported septel (ref A),Azerbaijan's largest
opposition parties, according to historical trends, are
boycotting the election. Observers expect this decision to
seriously diminish the competitiveness of this election, as
many of the newcomers are relatively unknown. The five
boycotting parties announced their intention to hold a rally
on September 28 to express concerns about the election in one
of nine sites they chose in central Baku. The Mayor of Baku,
however, denied permission to hold a rally in any of these
sites, offering instead the Bibi Heybat Stadium outside the
city (ref B). The five parties refused to use this site, and
are now weighing their options on holding another event. As
reported ref B, the City of Baku earlier identified 11 sites
for political rallies, but these sites are largely in remote
or inconvenient parts of the city.

REGISTERED OPPOSITION CANDIDATES
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4. (C) Igbal Agazade is chairman of the Umid (Hope) Party
and was elected as a Member of Parliament in 2005. In 2003,
however, Agazade supported Isa Gambar's (Musavat Party)
candidacy for president, and was one of the leaders of the
post-election protests. Agazade was arrested and reportedly
tortured, leading to a public statement in which he claimed
Isa Gambar was responsible for the violence during the
rallies. This year Agazade has been able to use personal
wealth to finance a comparatively well-organized presidential
campaign, and has a crowd of motivated supporters whom
Embassy officials witnessed at the official launch party for
his campaign. Agazade has managed to place more campaign
posters than any other opposition candidate throughout Baku
and the regions. The New Azerbaijan Party filed a complaint
against Agazade for distributing DVDs before the campaign
officially began, despite these DVDs not mentioning the
presidential campaign. Agazade apologized and received no
penalty from the CEC.


5. (C) Gulamhuseyn Alibayli split this year from the Popular
Front Party (PFP) and on September 23 announced the launch of
his own party called the Intellectuals Party. Alibayli
reports that the reason for the split is that he disagreed
with PFP's decision to boycott the election. He was a member
of parliament from 2000-2005 but was forced to give up his
seat in 2005 when PFP decided to boycott the election
results. The major theme of his campaign is to reform the

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government to give more power to parliament and to
municipalities, rather than the president and the regional
officials known as ExComs. He also reports wanting to
improve the election system, fight corruption, and create a
new body to oversee spending of oil revenues. Given his lack
of party infrastructure, it seems unlikely that he could have
gathered the 40,000 signatures required to register as a
candidate without some assistance. Many political
commentators believe that this aid came from the GOAJ in
order to increase the number of candidates in the election
after the major opposition parties announced their boycott.
Alibayli has not posted large numbers of posters, nor held
any large rallies.


6. (C) Fuad Aliyev is the chairman of the Liberal Democratic
Party, but this party has few resources to conduct a
campaign. The International Republican Institute (IRI)
reports that Aliyev does not own a car and still lives with
his mother. Aliyev reports that he receives his only support
from his links to liberal democratic parties in Turkey,
Ukraine, and Pakistan. His platform calls for holding
referenda on a number of issues including giving more power
to parliament, NATO membership, and adding free healthcare
and internet connections for all citizens into the
constitution. He reports that his four regional
representatives had no problems collecting signatures, but
are facing pressure now that the campaign has begun.


7. (C) Fazil Gazanfaroglu Mustafayev is the head of the
Great Establishment Party and a member of parliament. He was
a professor and has written twelve books. He considers his
party to be "constructive opposition," meaning that they work
with the government to pass legislation. His major reform
would be to remove government control over the economy, and
believes that economic liberty is more important than freedom
of speech. He would also like to transfer more power to
parliament and municipalities. He does not plan to hold any
large campaign events, but only to use his free air time on
TV and to print brochures.


8. (C) Gudrat Hasanguliyev is the leader of the Whole
Azerbaijan Party, which split from PFP in 2003. The party is
small, but they have managed to place posters throughout Baku
and in some regions. Hasanguliyev held meetings in the
southern region of Lankaran during the week of September 25,
which he claimed were disturbed by local officials. He is
most known for advocating for the rights of ethnic Azeris in
Iran, including wanting to change the name of Azerbaijan to
"North Azerbaijan." Hasanguliyev, unlike other candidates,
claims to have developed a comprehensive platform for his
campaign, which he reports includes three major ideas:
liberating Nagorno Karabagh; eliminating poverty by
eliminating corruption; and changing life through fair, just
civil society.


9. (C) Hafiz Hajiyev is the head of the Modern Musavat
Party. He is known for making bold, off-the-cuff statements
to the press. He threatened to hold a rally in front of the
Embassy if an Embassy official would not meet with him.
Despite claiming to have large public support including over
90,000 party members, Hajiyev has not actively engaged in the
campaign yet. He reports that his platform consists of
joining NATO, ridding the country of corruption, and
re-taking Nagorno Karabagh by force. His office is decorated
with prominently displayed pictures of former president
Heydar Aliyev.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (C) The difficult pre-election environment and the
boycott by the traditional opposition parties make it
difficult for a presidential election to be held in a
competitive manner. None of the six opposition candidates
that are running in the election represents a legitimate
alternative to the current regime, as party structures are
inadequate and platforms are incomplete. Given this
situation, political commentators point to voter turnout as
the only open question in this election. If turnout is in
the 20-30% range, as many analysts predict, it will signal
popular disinterest in the political life of the country.
Analysts warn that any electoral fraud committed during this
election will likely be focused on increasing this turnout

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