AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION, GEORGIA WITH HUMAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000852

SIPDIS

EUR/CARC AND DRL FOR WENDY SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM AJ GG
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES ELECTION, GEORGIA WITH HUMAN
RIGHTS ACTIVISTS

REF: A. BAKU 820

B. BAKU 779

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On August 29, leading Azerbaijani human
rights activists Novella Jafaroglu-Appelbaum, Saida
Gojamanly, and Saadat Benanyarly discussed with the
Ambassador their concern over the conflict in Georgia and the
threat it poses for Azerbaijan. In a surprising twist, they
explained that President Aliyev is now in a tough situation,
and said that they will support him in the upcoming elections
in order to preserve stability in Azerbaijan. They felt,
however, that the pre-election environment is not democratic,
and that the President's August 26 pardon decree did not
extend to the most important prisoners. They asked for
increased U.S. and European influence in Azerbaijan to ensure
the country's sovereign and independent future and to counter
the pressure of the "monsters" to Azerbaijan's north and
south. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On August 29 the Ambassador met with Novella
Jafaroglu-Appelbaum of the Association for the Protection of
Women's Rights, Saida Gojamanly of the Bureau of Human Rights
and Law Respect, and Saadat Benanyarly of the International
Service for Human Rights. These three women are well-known
and respected advocates for the improvement of human rights
in Azerbaijan.

GEORGIAN CONFLICT
--------------


3. (C) Jafaroglu-Appelbaum began the discussion by
describing her recent trip to Georgia. She met with Georgian
NGOs and stated that she supports the peaceful resolution of
the conflict. Gojamanly further explained that they believe
the situation in Georgia is a threat to Azerbaijan's economic
strategy and energy export routes. The three activists,
along with another well-known human rights activist Arzu
Abdullayeva, have appealed to President Ilham Aliyev to
support Georgia and to defend Azerbaijan's interests.
Benanyarly stated that they felt President Aliyev was in a
tough position now internationally, and that he faced an
important choice. Benanyarly felt it was important that the
United States have as much influence as possible on President
Aliyev at this critical juncture.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (C) The three women also explained to the Ambassador
that the current period leading up the October presidential
election was regrettable. Gojamanly described the political
stagnation of the country, explaining that people had lost
trust in democratic elections this year. Jafaroglu-Appelbaum
stated that she felt that election-day procedures would be
conducted freely and fairly, because there was no serious
candidate running against President Aliyev. Benanyarly
stressed the need for more dialogue between the government
and civil society, and expressed optimism that this could be
possible after Aliyev's re-election, when he will feel that
he is in a stronger position. All three women agreed that
there will not be large protests after the election. Despite
these democratic shortcomings, all three women surprisingly
announced that they would now support Aliyev winning a second
term because stability of the country was most important at
this point. They plan to continue their human rights
advocacy during his second term, however. They argued as
they have before that the best way for the international
community to promote democratic change in the country would
be to press for acceleration of Azerbaijan's accession to
NATO.

PRISONER PARDON
--------------


5. (C) The three activists also discussed President
Aliyev's August 26 pardon of 96 prisoners (ref A). Gojamanly
explained that six of the 32 people on their list of
political prisoners had been pardoned in this decree. She
felt that this was not a step forward in democracy, however,
because there are still a number of political prisoners in
jail and there is still active pressure on journalists and

BAKU 00000852 002 OF 002


religious Muslims. Jafaroglu-Appelbaum stated that another
pardon decree that freed the three high-level journalists in
prison as well as a number of very ill prisoners would help
President Aliyev win back support from the Azerbaijani
people. She asked the Ambassador to pass this message to
President Aliyev.

RUSSIAN INFLUENCE
--------------


6. (C) Finally, the activists expressed their fear of
Russian influence in Azerbaijan. Gojamanly explained that
she thought the Russians were behind the August 17 attack on
the Abu Bakr mosque in Baku (ref B). She believes that
Russia wanted to stir up minorities in Azerbaijan, and
therefore were trying to provoke religious extremism.
Jafaroglu-Appelbaum added that there must be someone local
giving these orders. She then concluded the meeting by
stating that Azerbaijan has "monsters" to its north (Russia)
and south (Iran) and therefore it needed U.S. and European
influence in order to secure its independent future.

COMMENT
--------------

7. (C) The decision of these human rights activists to
support President Aliyev in the upcoming election, despite
the poor pre-election environment, is a major shift from
their previous position, but consistent with what we are
hearing more generally. The Russian invasion of Georgia has
shaken Azerbaijanis across the political spectrum. Stability
is now a priority. Many Azerbaijanis openly fear further
Russian influence and interference, and are looking for rapid
steps towards closer ties to the west and Europe to secure
Azerbaijan's independence and security.
DERSE