Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAKU836
2008-09-08 10:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN'S 2008 ELECTION: ISLAM UNLIKELY TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KIRF AJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5935
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1076
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000836 

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KIRF AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S 2008 ELECTION: ISLAM UNLIKELY TO
INFLUENCE ELECTION RESULTS

REF: BAKU 00779

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000836

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KIRF AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S 2008 ELECTION: ISLAM UNLIKELY TO
INFLUENCE ELECTION RESULTS

REF: BAKU 00779

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to local contacts, Islam is
unlikely to be a significant political factor during the
October 15 presidential election. Our contacts told us that
while Islam is growing as a religious, cultural, and social
phenomenon, there is little political space for appeals to
religion in the current political and social climate.
Azerbaijani law also lays the basis for the GOAJ preventing
appeals to Islam in the political sphere. End Summary.


2. (SBU) This cable is part of a series on the broader
political environment before the October 15 presidential
election. Septels address the media environment and the
potential for large-scale demonstrations.


3. (C) According to a variety of local Embassy contacts,
Islam is unlikely to be a significant political factor during
the election season. Former State Committee on Work with
Religious Associations (SCWRA) employee Agil Khajiyev said
that while Islam is rapidly growing as a religious, cultural,
and social phenomenon, there are few opportunities for any
religion to play a political role in the upcoming election.
Practicing Muslim and civic society activist Fuad Aliyev
quickly discarded the prospects for Islam becoming a
political issue during the election. Aliyev argued that the
Ministry of National Security (MNS) or another GOAJ entity
would quickly quash any attempt by political or religious
forces to politicize Islam during the election.


4. (C) Rashid Hajili, who heads the Media Rights Institute,
told the Embassy that because the election is just one
electoral contest and given President Ilham Aliyev's near
certitude of victory, there is little to no chance for Islam
to assume a political role. Hajili did note that Islam could
be a factor in the 2010 parliamentary elections, particularly
as more Azerbaijanis are practicing Muslims and the
parliamentary elections by nature are more decentralized
races forcing candidates to adopt more grass-roots
campaigning tactics.


5. () Azerbaijan's constitution separates religion from the
state (article 18). Azerbaijan's Law on Religious Freedom
also forbids religious associations from participating in
political parties' activities (article five). While there
are inherent legal grey areas concerning an individual
presidential candidate's ability to articulate his/her own
private religious views, in practice, the GOAJ likely would
rely on these two laws to clamp down on any candidate seeking
to make religion a political issue.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The Embassy does not expect that Islam will become an
issue or shaping factor in the October 15 presidential
election. Incumbent Ilham Aliyev is staunchly secular, and
he is widely anticipated to win the election. None of the
other candidates thus far has made religious appeals to
advance their campaign and there have been no Islamic parties
enjoying broad-based support to contest the election. The
Islamic Party of Azerbaijan has existed since the mid-1990s,
but it lacks registration and it has a very limited following
among the general public. The GOAJ is unlikely to allow the
party to function effectively, especially since it lacks
registration. The Embassy also notes that the recent bombing
of the Abu Bakr mosque in Baku does not appear to have any
link to the presidential election (reftel). Since the
bombing, the GOAJ has arrested several suspects and banned
Muslims from praying outside of several popular mosques in
Baku, but these events do not appear linked to the election.


7. (C) While Islam is unlikely to have a short-term
political impact, Azerbaijani society -- especially the youth
-- increasingly is showing an interest in Islam. This
cultural shift is primarily seen at the religious and
cultural levels. It would be illogical for this cultural
shift not to have some long-term political implications. If
public discontent with growing corruption, economic
disparities, and a lack of "social justice" deepens in the
absence of serious political and economic reform, it could
lay the foundation for a more serious political movement.

BAKU 00000836 002 OF 002


Significant restraints on Islam assuming a political
character remain, however, as the general public favors a
strict separation of religion and politics and the pool of
secular ruling elites will employ all available means to
maintain the status quo.
DERSE