Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAKU796
2008-08-22 13:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

TURKISH PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN PITCHES CAUCASUS

Tags:  ECON ENRG PGOV PHUM PREL TU AJ IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6633
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKB #0796/01 2351323
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 221323Z AUG 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5876
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1066
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000796 

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV PHUM PREL TU AJ IR
SUBJECT: TURKISH PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN PITCHES CAUCASUS
PLATFORM TO AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ALIYEV

REF: ANKARA 01513

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000796

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2018
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV PHUM PREL TU AJ IR
SUBJECT: TURKISH PRIME MINISTER ERDOGAN PITCHES CAUCASUS
PLATFORM TO AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ALIYEV

REF: ANKARA 01513

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).


1. (C) Summary: Turkish Embassy First Secretary Cem Ornekol
told the Embassy the goal of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's
August 20 visit to Baku was to gain Azerbaijan's support for
Turkey's proposed Caucasus Stability and Cooperation
Platform. Ornekol said President Aliyev was receptive to the
initiative, although Ornekol admitted that the Platform is
still "just a framework." Ornekol said the platform aims to
increase "dialogue" within the region and its immediate focus
is to bolster regional security. Ornekol emphasized that the
Turkish initiative seeks to complement, not duplicate,
ongoing U.S., EU, and OSCE efforts in fostering regional
cooperation. End Summary.

Turkish Embassy: Successful Erdogan Visit
--------------


2. (C) On August 22, Turkish Embassy First Secretary Cem
Ornekol briefed Embassy officers on Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan's August 20 visit to Baku. Erdogan was in Baku for
five hours, where he had a one-on-one meeting with President
Aliyev. There also was a broader bilateral meeting on a
range of bilateral security and energy topics, but the
one-on-one meeting was the focus of the visit. During the
broader bilateral meeting, Ornekol said the Azerbaijani side
expressed concern about its energy pipelines through Georgia,
particularly the bombing of the Georgian rail bridge carrying
oil to the Black Sea. Ornekol also said that most Turkish
exports to Azerbaijan were now transiting Iran rather than
Georgia. With regard to Georgia, he said the general sense
in the GOT was that Georgia had "provoked" Russia and had
fallen into Russia's "trap."


3. (C) From the Turkish perspective, the goal of the visit
was to secure Azerbaijani buy-in on Turkey's proposed
Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform. While there was
no Turkish notetaker at the one-on-one meeting, Ornekol

indicated the Azerbaijani side was receptive to the
initiative. Ornekol admitted the platform is still "just a
framework" for regional cooperation; the Turkish Ministry of
Foreign Affairs has been tasked with fleshing out the details
of the proposal. The Turkish and Azerbaijani Foreign
Ministers will also cooperate on the details of the proposal.
(Comment: While Ornekol appeared confident the Turkish side
had secured Azerbaijani consent, it appears the GOAJ was only
asked to agree to a still-undefined platform. It remains to
be seen if the GOAJ will agree to a more well-defined
proposal with the same speed. Ornekol also noted that
Erdogan had received similarly warm receptions to this idea
from the governments of Russia and Georgia during his visits
to Moscow and Tbilisi the week of August 11.)


4. (C) Ornekol said the platform aims to increase "dialogue"
to advance the goal of regional cooperation. The first and
immediate focus of the platform is to address security
problems. To the degree the platform effectively addresses
regional security problems, it could also seek to enhance
regional economic and cultural cooperation. Ornekol several
times noted that Ankara intends for the platform to
complement, not duplicate, ongoing U.S., EU, and OSCE efforts
in fostering regional cooperation. Ornekol referred to the
platform as an "annex" to these ongoing efforts, and
reiterated Erdogan's public statements that the platform
would be based on OSCE principles. Ornekol said Ankara hopes
to provide more information on the platform in the coming
weeks.

Comments on Russia-Georgia Conflict
--------------


5. (C) Separately, Ornekol said Turkey has heard rumors in
the media that Russia's military operations in Georgia were
specifically targeting energy infrastructure, but Turkey
discounts these claims. He said the Russian strikes appeared
to be directed at destroying Georgia's military
infrastructure. Reflecting what we have heard from several
local contacts, Ornekol questioned whether Georgian President
Saakashvili will be able to stay in power when segments of
his population understand that Georgia may have now
effectively lost South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

BAKU 00000796 002 OF 002



Erdogan's Attendance at Soccer Match in the Air
-------------- --


6. (C) When asked about the upcoming Turkey-Armenia soccer
match in Yerevan, Ornekol said Erdogan was thinking about
attending the game, but a decision on his attendance probably
would not be made until the last minute.

Skepticism from Local Commentators
--------------


7. (C) Paralleling reftel's account that local Turkish
commentators are cool to the platform initiative, local
Azerbaijani analysts also appear dismissive of the proposal.
Baku State University Turkic History Professor Altay Geyushev
told us the initiative is naive and poorly-defined, and that
it does not account for Azerbaijan and Georgia's negative
views of Russia's role in the Caucasus. Geyushev suggested
that many educated Azerbaijanis see the proposal as a Turkish
publicity stunt with little potential to affect the region's
most important security problems.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The Turkish proposal appears nascent and primarily
"just a framework." While the Azerbaijanis appear to have
given their conceptual buy-in to vague statements about
"opening dialogue," it remains to be seen whether the
platform will actually have an impact on the region's key
security problems. At this moment, a regional meeting
including Georgia and Russia, and Azerbaijan and Armenia,
seems more than a bit difficult to organize. The Embassy
also notes that when the then Charge called the Turkish
Ambassador on August 15 for additional context on the
initiative, the Turkish Ambassador claimed not to have
received any information from Ankara and that he was reliant
on press reports. This causes us to wonder what (if any)
robust details will actually materialize from Ankara.
DERSE