AZERBAIJAN ELECTIONS 2008: MAJOR OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000763

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC AND DRL/SILVERMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/11/2018

TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN ELECTIONS 2008: MAJOR OPPOSITION
PARTIES WILL NOT PARTICIPATE

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Lu, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Three major opposition forces in
Azerbaijan-- Azadliq bloc, Musavat Party, and Azerbaijan
Democratic Reform Party-- have announced that they will not
participate in October's presidential election. While these
parties no longer have a stQg base of support in the
country, as the "traditional" opposition parties they remain
the most well-known in the opposition. At least four, and
possibly up to ten, other candidates are likely to contest
the election against current president Ilham Aliyev, but most
observers agree none of these candidates represents a serious
challenge to the President's bid to win a second term.
Opposition leaders, in announcing their decisions to forego a
run at the presidency, cited a poor, unbalance pre-election
environment, with restrictions on media and freedom of
assembly. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On July 20 the Azadliq bloc announced it would
boycott Azerbaijan's presidential election scheduled for
October 15. The Azadliq bloc is the largest opposition bloc
in the country, and is a union of the Popular Front Party led
by Ali Karimli, the Liberal Party led by Lala Shevket, and
the Citizen and Development Party. Azadliq had earlier
stated that the bloc would boycott the election if the GOAJ
did not create conditions appropriate to a free and fair
election, including (what they would consider) balanced
representation on electoral commissions, protection of
freedom of assembly, release of jailed journalists, and equal
access to media for all candidates. At the meeting of the
supreme bodies of the three parties on July 20, it was
determined that these conditions were not met, and therefore
the bloc would boycott.


3. (C) On August 2 the Musavat Party, one of Azerbaijan's
largest opposition parties led by Isa Gambar, announced it
also would not participate in October's presidential
election. Musavat's decision is not a boycott, however, as
the party is not banning its members from voting in the
election. The decision not to run a candidate was
controversial within the party. According to Musavat deputy
chairman Sulhaddin Akbar, the party's assembly on August 2
discussed several participation scenarios, including
conducting a normal campaign in order to connect with voters
and then withdrawing ten days prior to the election as a
protest. In the end, the restrictions on campaign timing,
media freedom, and the party's financial limitations led to
the decision not to participate at all, although of the 84
party assembly members at the meeting, six still voted to
participate and seven abstained. In addition, the
editor-in-chief of the party's paper "Yeni Musavat" Rauf
Arifoglu told several newspapers on August 5 that he is
debating a run for president, despite his party's decision
not to participate.Q Gambar has replied publicly that
Arifoglu would not be allowed to run under the Musavat Party
name.


4. (C) In addition, on August 2 the Azerbaijan Democratic
Party (ADP),led by Sardar Jalaloglu, also decided not to
participate in the election. Jalaloglu stated to Embassy
officials that the deteriorating political climate in
Azerbaijan made it impossible for a free and fair election to
be held. Similar to the Musavat Party, Jalaloglu felt that
the shortening of the election campaign period combined with
the limited access of opposition parties to media coverage
and inability to hold rallies in central Baku made it
impossible for his party to reach voters. In addition, his
party's polling indicated that 95 percent of voters are not
interested in this election, and therefore the ADP felt it
was not worth participating.


5. (C) Due to these party decisions, as of August 5 the
Central Election Commission had received paperwork from only
four candidates: current President Ilham Aliyev; Igbal
Agazade of the Hope Party; Gudrat Gassanguliyev of the United
People's Front; and Hafiz Haciyev of the Modern Musavat
Party. Eldar Namazov, a top adQr to former president
Heydar Aliyev, has told Embassy officials he plans to run as
an independent candidate; however, he has not yet formally
announced his candidacy. Six other party leaders have
announced intentions to run, but it remains to be seen
whether any will be able to collect the 40,000 signatures
required to register as a presidential candidate.

COMMENT
--------------



6. (C) While international and domestic observers did not
expect any of the non-participating parties to put forward a
serious challenge to current president Ilham Aliyev winning a
second term of office, as the "traditional opposition" they
are the largest and most well-known opposition parties in the
country. In the last presidential election in 2003 several
of these parties united under the candidacy of Isa Gambar of
Musavat, who did win a significant percentage of the vote.
Of the candidates who have announced their participation,
only Agazade and Namazov are well-known in the country.
Agazade supported Gambar in the 2003 election, and was
arrested during a post-election protest and allegedly
tortured into publicly denouncing Gambar. This turn-around
has lost him credibility within the country. Namazov,
however, is largely respected as intelligent commentator on
the current political situation, but lacks a party structure
of dedicated following to unite any of the various opposition
forces behind him. As a result, it is unlikely that any of
the opposition candidates in the field today will receive
more than token support during this campaign, and debate of
the issues along the way may not be widespread or insightful.
LU