AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION AZERBAIJAN WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000733

SIPDIS

EUR FOR MATT BRYZA, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ENRG AZ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR DISCUSSES PRE-ELECTION AZERBAIJAN WITH
EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE

REF: BAKU 687

Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b,
d)


1. (C) Summary: EU Special Representative for the South
Caucasus Peter Semneby won President Aliyev's commitment to
launch an EU democracy dialogue with Azerbaijan, but met some
resistance from the Foreign Minister, who suggested expanding
the theme of the discussions. Azerbaijan's leaders have
mixed objectives for the October 15 presidential elections,
hoping to mollify the West's demands for free and fair
elections while pressing for a strong show of support for
President Aliyev. Jailed journalists, according to Aliyev,
could be released after the election, but not likely ahead of
it. Azerbaijan's leadership remains upset because of the
U.S. Congress's focus on convicted former minister Farhad
Aliyev in the recent Helsinki Commission hearings.
Turkey-Armenia talks, which may have implications for
Nagorno-Karabakh, may be a source of apprehension for
Azerbaijan's leaders, even though they are not expressing
concern publicly. President Aliyev seeks high-level visitors
to Baku and regular meetings with European leaders to hasten
the development of the Nabucco pipeline, which would further
solidify Azerbaijan's reorientation toward the Euro-Atlantic
community. End Summary


2. (SBU) Ambassador met with EU Special Representative for
the South Caucasus Peter Semneby August 1 to discuss his
ongoing visit to Baku. Semneby had met with President
Aliyev, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and other Azerbaijani
officials. French Ambassador Gabriel Keller,EU Commission
representative and POLEC Counselor joined the conversation.

Democracy Dialogue
--------------


3. (C) Semneby said that his mission to Baku was to "take the
pulse" of Azerbaijan ahead of the October 15 presidential
elections. In high level meetings, he promoted the EU,s
proposed democracy dialogue with Azerbaijan. President
Aliyev, he reported, again endorsed the initiative. Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov, however, was less enthusiastic.
Mammadyarov suggested combining the democracy dialogue with a
discussion on joint security efforts, which currently takes
place in another framework. Mammadyarov also noted that the
human rights discussion with the EU should be broadened to
include the human rights of Azerbaijan's internally displaced
persons, resulting from the conflict with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh, and asked for the EU to harmonize its
European Neighborhood Policy vis-a-vis other countries in the
neighborhood. Semneby said that the EU would now send a
request to the GOAJ, noting President Aliyev,s commitment to
the process, to determine the dialogue,s future structure
and agenda and to set dates for meetings. Semneby expects
the Presidential Apparat, Ministry of Justice, Ministry of
Internal Affairs, Ministry of National Security and MFA to
participate in future meetings, and expects to meet with
President Aliyev himself annually in the context of the
dialogue. The French Ambassador, representing the EU
Presidency, has asked the Embassy for a briefing on the U.S.
Democracy Dialogue.

Elections - Mixed Objectives
--------------


4. (C) Semneby said that, in his view, Azerbaijan,s
leadership worries that October elections will not result in
"a good demonstration of a pluralistic political environment"
in the country, and therefore will not convey a sense of
legitimacy among international observers. Semneby described
a struggle among authorities who simultaneously wish to show
a "pluralistic atmosphere" for the sake of Western observers,
but feel the need for a "demonstration of power and unity" at
home. Throughout the ranks of government - in Baku and in
the regions - there is the sentiment that there must be "a
strong show of support for President Aliyev." Ambassador
raised Azerbaijan's new law on freedom of assembly in the
context of recent Musavat Party rallies, noting that these
demonstrations, for which the authorities had denied
permission in accordance with the new law, did not give a
clear view on implementation of the law. Ambassador also
highlighted a press release from that morning that stated
that OSCE Ambassador Jose Luis Herrero would lead a
pre-election dialogue between the governing party and members
of the opposition.

Journalists to Remain Jailed Throughout Election Season
--------------


5. (C) Following a brief discussion of the Agil Khalil case
(reftel),Semneby relayed "a somewhat positive message" on
the media environment. At the Presidential Apparat, he had
found that there might be an effort under preparation to
release the remaining incarcerated journalists after the
October elections. Ambassador asked about the possibility of
an earlier release, ahead of the vote. Semneby said that, in
his view, the current political environment in the country
would not allow for it. Semneby added that, during his
meetings with the President and others, he had not
specifically asked for the release of the journalists or
discussed specific cases.

Displeasure at Helsinki Commission Hearings
--------------


6. (C) Semneby told Ambassador that President Aliyev had
expressed his displeasure with the United States because of
the extended conversation at the recent Helsinki Commission
hearings on the case of jailed former Minister of Economy
Farhad Aliyev. The President raised with the EU delegation
the notion of the United States' "triple standards" on human
rights and democracy, vis-a-vis 1) Armenia, 2) Georgia and
Ukraine and 3) the Gulf States/Middle East.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Worries of Turkey-Armenia Talks
--------------


7. (C) On Nagorno-Karabakh, Semneby noted that President
Aliyev does not appear to think that the United States is
"sincere" in its mediation efforts. The President, Semneby
reported, now sees Yerevan as "economically and socially
weak," i.e., suffering from far greater economic and social
problems than Azerbaijan. The French Ambassador weighed in
to note that Azerbaijani leaders are "much more concerned
than they admit publicly" about the initiation of talks
between Turkey and Armenia, and these developments might be a
source of consternation in terms of the leadership's current
thinking on NK.

Energy: Movement on Nabucco by Year-End
--------------


8. (C) Semneby noted that energy issues were intensively
discussed in his Baku consultations, especially with
President Aliyev. He highlighted several high profile
events that are planned for the remaining months of this
year, including a September 9-10 Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan
joint energy conference in Baku, a proposed Nabucco
conference in Europe, a November 14 energy summit in Baku
(following previous presidential meetings in Kyiv, Vilnius
and Krakow) and possibly a year-end Nabucco Summit in
Brussels. Regarding the Nabucco project, Semneby said that
Aliyev was insisting that "decisions must be taken by the end
of the year," and that the President wants high-level
officials in Brussels, European heads of government and
Turkmenistan President Berdimuhamedov to meet in coming
months to set the political framework.


9. (C) Aliyev's set out his strategy on Nabucco in detail
according to Semneby, and urged that a Nabucco-plus Summit
take place before the end of the year in Brussels to issue a
political statement laying out next steps. Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan should press forward into European markets;
Turkmenistan's participation, in that regard, is essential
for Azerbaijan. Responding to the Ambassador's inquiry,
Semneby said that a near-term visit to Baku by EU foreign
policy chief Javier Solana is possible, but not yet in the
works. Ambassador also noted that President Aliyev would
appreciate a visit from French President Sarkozy, as France
now has the EU Presidency. The French Ambassador wondered
aloud how much progress could be made on Nabucco during
France's tenure, given Sarkozy's approach to Turkey's EU
membership ambitions.

Medvedev Visit: Russia Back in the Game
--------------


10. (C) Semneby asked Ambassador for her take on Russian
President Dmitriy Medvedev's recent visit to Baku.
Ambassador said that, in her opinion, the Russians wanted to
send a strong signal, particularly on energy cooperation, to
Azerbaijan. She added that there appeared to be no
conclusive results from the visit, despite a large Russian

business contingent that accompanied the President. On NK,
Russia raised the level at which it expressed support for
Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, but did not change its
message. Semneby agreed that Medvedev wanted to show that
"Russia is back in the game." He commented on media
speculation that Russia might sell out Armenia in favor of a
natural gas deal with Azerbaijan, noting that, in his
opinion, Russia would never jeopardize its long term position
in Armenia to do so. Semneby also said that the Medvedev
visit is a sign that Azerbaijan is now thinking in
"multi-vector" terms, i.e., continuing its orientation toward
the West, but, because of a lack of European engagement, also
looking in other directions. Ambassador noted that this is
precisely why the Nabucco project is so important. "It is
about so much more than gas."

Comment:
--------------

11. (C) Semneby was impressed by the urgency and detail of
President Aliyev's discussion of energy security and the need
for urgent action on Nabucco. He said he would make Aliyev's
case for an energy summit in Brussels, but could not predict
the outcome. Turkmenistan emerged as very much at the core of
President Aliyev's Southern Corridor energy plans. The
President has suggested that Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan
should work out the technical conditions to link offshore gas
fields across the Caspian, that Turkey should exercise its
1998 contract to purchase Turkmenistan's gas via Azerbaijan,
and that Nabucco and Europeans should seek gas purchasing
agreements with Turkmenistan. The EU's intention to engage
Azerbaijan in a formal discussion of democracy and human
rights is positive and is an effort we should encourage.
DERSE