CONGRESSMAN ADAM SCHIFF AND AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000604

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS AM AJ
SUBJECT: CONGRESSMAN ADAM SCHIFF AND AZERBAIJANI FOREIGN
MINISTER DISCUSS NAGORNO-KARABAKH

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a May 24 meeting with Representative
Schiff and the Ambassador, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov
underscored Azerbaijan's interest in an early peaceful
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict and the
benefits that increased cooperation with a rapidly developing
Azerbaijan would bring to Armenia, especially in terms of
ensuring its independence from Russia. Mammadyarov
emphasized that NK's final status -- as an autonomous region
in Azerbaijan -- can be decided only after the return and
reconstruction of the other territories and the return of
IDPs. Mammadyarov highlighted Azerbaijan's leadership on
regional issues, including energy security and efforts to
combat extremism. He argued that democratic change in
Azerbaijan is "inevitable" but will require generational
change. End summary.


2. (U) Representative Adam Schiff, accompanied by the
Ambassador and Chief of Staff Tim Bergreen, met with Foreign
Minister Mammadyarov and MFA representatives on May 24.


3. (C) Mammadyarov told Schiff that Azerbaijan is eager to
welcome visitors from the U.S. to observe first hand ongoing
developments. Those who come, especially from Congress,
"leave as friends," he said. Representative Schiff noted his
excellent discussion with President Aliyev (septel) and said
he would follow up on the President's suggestion that the
Armenian and Azerbaijani caucuses in the Congress meet, and
include the ambassadors from the two countries.

Armenia/Nagorno-Karabakh
--------------


4. (C) Mammadyarov said that sooner or later, Armenia and
Azerbaijan must find a "common language." There are
excellent opportunities for the region to cooperate, develop
and ensure independence and sovereignty. Azerbaijan is
sending a clear message, and it is important that the
Armenian leadership understand that a "weak, undemocratic
state as a neighbor is a challenge to our security."
However, if Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia could cooperate
as the three Baltic states have done and jointly address
challenges, "we can succeed."


5. (C) Mammadyarov told Schiff that for a just, durable
peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a step-by-step approach
is needed. If the new Armenian President is "ready for
peace, managing an independent foreign policy, and looking to
an independent future (not as another Kaliningrad) he can
make serious progress with Azerbaijan." Mammadyarov said he
told the new Armenian Foreign Minister that Azerbaijan "is
ready for peace," and urged him to think about the next
generation, not the next election." If Armenia is ready for
peace, the two countries should move ahead now.


6. (C) Schiff asked about Russian pressure on Armenia not to
compromise. Mammadyarov said that if the new Prime Minister
is decisive, no one can influence him; this decision should
be made in Yerevan, not Moscow. But Russia has a heavy
influence on the Armenian military and guards Armenia's
borders. It is hard for Russia, as a UNSC member, to "defend
the indefensible" Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani
territory.


7. (C) Mammadyarov said a strong economic performance would
be an important tool to strengthen independence and
sovereignty in Armenia. Azerbaijan also is prepared to
invest heavily in Nagorno-Karabakh following a peace
settlement that respects Azerbaijan's territorial integrity.
"There will be benefits to people on the ground."


8. (C) Representative Schiff asked what obstacles prevented
agreement at Key West. Mammadyarov replied that under the
Prague Process, now, a step-by-step approach is contemplated:
Armenia's withdrawal from the occupied territories,
communications restored and rehabilitation of facilities,
renewed people-to-people ties, the return of IDP's to
Nagorno-Karabakh, restoration of bi-communal cooperation and
coexistence, and only then the Armenian community of
Nagorno-Karabakh, as citizens of Azerbaijan, "will define
Nagorno-Karabakh's status in Azerbaijan." Mammadyarov noted
that there are many examples internationally of highly
autonomous regions, such as the Tartars in Russia, and the
Swedes and Finns. The step-by-step process is not easy but
there is no other approach -- status cannot be defined in
advance. Status can only be defined by democratic means by
the two communities in Nagorno-Karabakh after normal life is
restored. "Even Armenians will vote to be citizens of
Azerbaijan if there is not too much influence from the
outside," he said.


9. (C) Representative Schiff asked about Iran. Mammadyarov
replied that there is a huge minority of Azerbaijanis in Iran
but they are citizens of Iran and Azerbaijan respects Iran's
territorial integrity. Azerbaijan's high standard of living
is an irritation to Iran. Iran is the "biggest opponent" to
resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Ahmadinejad
supports Islamic solidarity with Palestine but provides
Armenian energy. Azerbaijan is "sabotaged by its neighbors,"
Mammadyarov said.


10. (C) Mammadyarov said he is optimistic that
Nagorno-Karabakh will be resolved, but sooner is better than
later. Azerbaijan's GDP will soon be three times that of
Georgia and Armenia combined. This will impact the peace
process. The Armenian leadership should recognize it is in
Armenia's national security interest to resolve the conflict.


11. (C) Mammadyarov told Schiff that Sarkisian "used
military arguments to come to power on the wave of
Nagorno-Karabakh." As leader of Armenia, he may change, as
he may try to consolidate his power using the concept of the
"outside threat." The upcoming meeting between the two
presidents in St. Petersburg will be key to determining if he
is ready for peace.

Turkmenistan
--------------


12. (C) Mammadyarov said Azerbaijan is making good progress
in restoring relations with Turkmenistan, evidenced by
Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov's recent successful visit.
Transport connections, ferry and rail, are being enhanced and
Azerbaijan will invest more in Turkmenistan. Humanitarian
and cultural ties are being strengthened. Azerbaijan needs
to do more homework "with Turkmenistan on oil and gas to
convince them it is in their interest to use Azerbaijan's
infrastructure, which strengthens their hand negotiating
prices with Russia." The proposal is "on the table," but the
Turkmen need more time to absorb it. Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan will host a joint oil and gas show in Baku in
September. Relations are "very positive and moving in the
right direction."

Energy Security
--------------


13. (C) Schiff thanked Mammadyarov for Azerbaijan's efforts
on energy security. Mammadyarov noted that this is key to
strengthening Azerbaijan's independence and sovereignty and
serves its national security interests. The Kiev energy
summit was a great success and the next one will be held in
Baku in November. More and More states are joining the
"Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian" energy group. Even Kazakhstan had
sent a Deputy Energy Minister. Azerbaijan, Mammadyarov noted
pointedly, "is not under any security umbrella" and must
provide for its security "on our own."

Afghanistan and Iraq
--------------



14. (C) Schiff told Mammadyarov the U.S. appreciates
Azerbaijan's contributions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Mammadyarov said Azerbaijan will do more in Afghanistan. "We
are spreading moderate Islam through the Organization of the
Islamic Conference." Iraq is rich in oil and has the means
to succeed but Afghanistan has only poppies. Mammadyarov
told Schiff that Azerbaijan is "on the same side as the U.S.
You can count on us...it is very important to use all means,
not only military, to stop the spread of extremism."

Iran
--------------


15. (C) Schiff told Mammadyarov that there are some
encouraging signs in the younger demographic in Iran, and
that he thought the U.S. should have some form of direct
engagement with Iran. This would remove Ahmadinejad's tool
to prop up unpopular policies at home. Mammadyarov agreed it
would be better for the U.S. to be "in than out of Iran,"
noting that the U.S. established relations with the
communists in 1933, and communism eventually collapsed.

Armenian Diaspora
--------------


16. (C) Mammadyarov told Schiff that most Armenians in
California do not know Azerbaijan. But "if they believe in
Armenian independence, it is very important to have peace and
stability in the region." Less pressure on the Armenian
leadership from the diaspora in the U.S. and France will make
them more flexible; especially less pressure from the
"radical" wing of the diaspora. They fought for Armenian
independence but now Armenia is becoming a satellite of the
country from which it had won its independence. Schiff noted
that Armenia's looking east, to Russia, and the recent
elections there are concerns for the diaspora. He said he
would raise these issues in Armenia as well. He offered to
meet the Azerbaijani Ambassador or Consul General in the
United States. Mammadyarov said he would instruct them to
meet.


17. (C) Mammadyarov said his message to the Armenians was to
appeal to their desire for independence -- not to fall under
the influence of Russia. The new Foreign Minister, however,
had strong Russian and KGB links. There are no real
Armenians in the Armenian government. Today, a peace deal
would be a 'win win' situation. Azerbaijan is wealthy and
"can build the whole Caucasus." This would promote Armenia's
interests, like the cooperation among the Baltic countries.
The Armenian diaspora is not promoting Armenia's national
interest. "We have to help," Mammadyarov said. "An angry,
underdeveloped neighbor is not good for us." Azerbaijan
helps Georgia, providing gas and investing in ports and
transport networks. We believe in being good neighbors."

Democracy/Human Rights
--------------


18. (C) Mammadyarov told Schiff that democracy is
"inevitable to survive." The rule of law and democratic
institutions must be built, however. The minds of people
"must be changed and that is a generational process. Young
people with good educations will gradually assume leadership.
Azerbaijan's Ministry of Education is working hard to build
new, internet-equipped schools "so kids recognize they are in
a new country." Mammadyarov noted he had established the new
Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy. "Democracy is inevitable, but
will take a few generations," he said. Schiff noted that
Azerbaijan can benefit from the mistakes of other oil rich
countries that failed to invest in their people.


19. (C) COMMENT: Mammadyarov made a clear effort to engage
constructively and leave several messages with Congressman
Schiff: Azerbaijan's interest in an early peaceful
resolution of the conflict and the benefits that increased
cooperation with a rapidly developing Azerbaijan would bring
to Armenia -- especially in terms of ensuring its
independence from Russia. He underscored Azerbaijan's
commitment to continue to support efforts in Iraq and
especially Afghanistan and to help spread "moderate Islam."


20. (U) Representative Schiff cleared this message.


DERSE