POLITICAL PARTIES FOCUS ON PARALLEL VOTE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000444

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, EUR/ACE AND DRL; PLEASE PASS TO USAID

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM EAID AJ
SUBJECT: POLITICAL PARTIES FOCUS ON PARALLEL VOTE
TABULATION AS ESSENTIAL FOR 2008 ELECTION

REF: BAKU 412

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse per 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: During a May 1 meeting, the Ambassador
briefed Azerbaijan's major political parties on our planned
USD 3.2 million in assistance programs to support a free and
fair presidential election. The parties welcomed the
assistance, focusing on the parallel vote tabulation (PVT) as
an essential tool to measure the legitimacy of the official
results. Independent candidate Eldar Namazov expressed
concern about the MOJ's recent move to revoke the Election
Monitoring Center's registration and urged the U.S. to find a
way to make the PVT work in spite of the pressure against
EMC. The opposition used the rare meeting with the ruling
Yeni Azerbaijan Party to castigate the GOAJ for previous
flawed elections and to complain about the pre-election
environment. Some opposition leaders argued that, absent
political will from the GOAJ, U.S. election assistance would
be a "waste of taxpayer money," a point the Ambassador firmly
disputed. End summary.


2. (C) On May 1, the Ambassador briefed Azerbaijan's major
political parties on the USD 3.2 million in ongoing and new
technical assistance programs to support a free and fair
presidential election in October. As in her public remarks
earlier the same day, the Ambassador stressed that U.S.
assistance was non-partisan and designed to support
Azerbaijan's democratic institutions and processes, and not
to finance political parties or politicians. Ruling Yeni
Azerbaijan Party (YAP) deputy chair Mubariz Gurbanly,
opposition Musavat Party Chair Isa Gambar, opposition Popular
Front Party Chair Ali Kerimli, opposition Liberal Party
Acting chair Avaz Temirkhan, opposition Azerbaijan Democratic
Party (ADP) Chair Sardar Jalaloglu, "pocket" opposition Hope
party chair Igbal Agazade, "pocket" opposition Justice Party
Chair Ilyas Ismayilov, "pocket" opposition Civil Solidarity
Party Chair Sabir Rustamkhanli, independent Azerbaijan Public
Forum Leader Eldar Namazov, and pseudo-independent Azerbaijan
Democratic Reforms Party Chair Asim Mollazade attended the
event. Of the group, Gambar, Jalaloglu, Agazade, and Namazov
already have declared that they will run for president;
Rustamkhanli and Mollazade have told us they still are
considering whether to run, and the press has speculated that
Ismayilov will run. The Azadliq bloc -- represented at the
meeting by Kerimli and Temirkhan -- still threatens to
boycott.

A RARE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEBATE
--------------


3. (C) While all the party leaders were unanimous in their
gratitude for U.S. engagement on the election, they - with
the exception of YAP - expressed varying degrees of
skepticism about the efficacy of technical election
assistance. The traditional opposition parties - Musavat,
Popular Front and the Liberal Party - took advantage of the
rare opportunity to meet with the ruling party to express
concerns about the pre-election environment. The Yeni
Azerbaijan Party complained that it faced an unfair debate,
as it was the only pro-government party present at the
debate. (The traditional opposition parties would disagree
with his assessment, as they put Hope, Justice, and Civil
Solidarity squarely in the pro-government camp.) The
Ambassador noted that the U.S., Azerbaijan and all of the
parties present supported the goal of holding free and fair
elections, and urged the parties to focus on this goal and
hold a constructive dialogue.


4. (C) The traditional opposition parties castigated the
GOAJ for previous elections that did not meet international
standards and complained that current restrictions on the
media and freedom of assembly made it impossible to hold a
free and fair election in October. Popular Front Party
Leader Ali Kerimli said that the U.S. assistance programs
demonstrated that the U.S. agrees with the OSCE that none of
Azerbaijan's previous elections had met international
standards. He argued that U.S. assistance programs should
focus on the real issues affecting Azerbaijani elections:
restrictions on the media and on freedom of assembly, and the
government's lack of the political will necessary to hold
truly free and fair elections. Programs that did not address
these issues would not be effective, Kerimli said. ADP
leader Sardar Jalaloglu and Liberal Party Chair Avaz
Temirkhan later echoed this point, with Temirkhan asserting
that the ruling party's domination of the electoral
commissions was the most important pre-election issue, and

noting his belief that the election assistance programs would
be a "waste of taxpayer money." Several other party leaders
agreed that the successful conduct of the election depended
entirely on the government's political will.

SUPPORT FOR A PVT
--------------


5. (C) The opposition parties and independent candidate
Eldar Namazov expressed strong interest in the Parallel Vote
Tabulation, stressing that some mechanism was needed to help
assess the credibility of the official vote count.
Independent candidate Eldar Namazov noted that the Ministry
of Justice had recently filed an appeal to revoke the
Election Monitoring Center's (EMC) registration and said the
MOJ's action demonstrated that the GOAJ is concerned about
the PVT (reftel). He suggested that EMC could work with a
coalition of other local NGOs to ensure that the PVT is
successfully implemented. Namazov also noted that, in
previous elections, there has often been a difference between
the official protocols and number of ballots cast; for this
reason, the PVT would be very important.


6. (C) Musavat leader Isa Gambar and ADP leader Jalaloglu
noted that the U.S. had funded an exit poll in the 2005
parliamentary election, asking why the U.S. was not doing so
again this year. Gambar recited the opposition's complaints
about the 2005 exit poll and hinted broadly that the U.S. had
declined to fund another exit poll because the 2005 exit poll
results were invalid. Stressing the necessity of some sort
of method to assess the legitimacy of the official results,
both Gambar and Jalaloglu asked for more information on how
the parallel vote tabulation (PVT) would be conducted and
used to assess official results.


7. (C) After the DCM provided details of the PVT, the
Ambassador said that exit polls and PVTs were just a few of
the many tools that could be used to assess the conduct of an
election. The U.S. sought to introduce new tools through its
technical assistance programs and, for this reason, planned
to introduce the PVT to Azerbaijan this year. She added that
the pre-election environment - including the many serious
problems raised by the party leaders - was also an important
benchmark by which the U.S. and the international community
would judge the conduct of the October election.

PROGRAMS ARE NOT A WASTE OF MONEY
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador pushed back on Temirkhan's assertion
that the election assistance programs would be a "waste of
taxpayer money." She said that the U.S. understands that
high-level advocacy and strong government-to-government
dialogue also are needed to promote the conditions necessary
for free and fair elections and would continue to be deeply
engaged in both. Repeating that U.S. assistance programs
support democratic processes and institutions, she argued
that assistance to government bodies such as the Central
Election Commission was central to our efforts. In response
to concerns about planned U.S. human rights training for
police officials, the Ambassador stressed that such training
was essential to ensure that Azerbaijani people are able to
exercise their right to assemble and peacefully express their
views. She also noted that our overall election assistance
was being provided in the context of a larger international
effort that included the OSCE, Council of Europe and EU and
urged the party leaders to consider our programs as just one
part of a broader initiative.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) The traditional opposition leaders and Eldar Namazov
identified the parallel vote tabulation as the most important
element of our election assistance program. In our view,
this also is the most important element of our assistance, as
it will provide real-time, nonpartisan information on the
conduct of the ballot counting throughout the country. We
continue to engage the GOAJ on the issues surrounding EMC's
registration and are pressing for a timely resolution. We
also are exploring other avenues to conduct the PVT, should
the GOAJ stand firm in its objections to EMC or NDI decides
it no longer wishes to conduct this monitoring effort.
DERSE