NATO ROSE-ROTH SEMINAR ATTRACTS DIVERSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000256

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2025
TAGS: PREL MARK MASS PBTS NATO AJ
SUBJECT: NATO ROSE-ROTH SEMINAR ATTRACTS DIVERSE
PARTICIPATION

Classified By: DCM Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: NATO's 68th Rose-Roth Seminar, focused on
"Security in the Caspian Region," was held in Baku March 6-8.
Speakers included a range of parliamentarians, scholars and
government officials from Europe, the Caucasus and Central
Asia; this was the first time that Central Asian states
participated in the seminar. The GOAJ's primary goal in
hosting the conference seemed to be raising support for
Azerbaijan's position vis-a-vis the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict, fully consistent with the GOAJ's broader foreign
policy objectives. While the conference provided
participants a good overview of some of the issues related to
the South Caucasus, the atmospherics were far more
interesting, with large and vocal delegations from Serbia and
Russia using almost every opportunity to present their
anti-NATO talking points. The diverse, often contentious
debates also highlighted the challenges in promoting
Euro-Atlantic integration throughout the broader Eurasia
region. END SUMMARY.

AZERBAIJAN
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2. (U) Azerbaijan used the Rose-Roth Seminar to highlights
its own efforts to promote regional integration, and to
advance its perspectives regarding the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict. Azerbaijani Speaker of Parliament Oqtay Asadov
opened the conference with remarks that hailed Azerbaijan's
continuing cooperation with NATO and Azerbaijan's
contributions to European security, particularly through GOAJ
peacekeepers in Afghanistan and Iraq. He noted Azerbaijan's
participation in NATO's Individual Partnership Action Plan
(IPAP) process and Azerbaijan's the ongoing reforms in the
security sector, including the transformation of the
Azerbaijani armed forces, which he noted included the
movement to civilian control of the military. The second
half of Asadov's comments focused on the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict and the resulting security and humanitarian
implications. The Ambassador attended the opening session.


3. (U) The Azerbaijani MFA's Director of Policy Planning,
Tofiq Musayev, lauded the great progress, and "real,
practical results" that have taken place in the GUAM
organization during Azerbaijan's chairmanship (2007-2008).
When pressed to provide details, Musayev responded that
Azerbaijan is trying to foster a "dialogue of civilizations"
and also is trying to strengthen communication links between
the GUAM countries. Azerbaijan's prospects for NATO
membership also were discussed during the conference. In a
somewhat surprising turn of events, Azerbaijani Member of
Parliament - and member of the Security and Defense
Commission - Zahid Orujov - asked NATO Special Representative
for the South Caucasus Robert Simmons when NATO was planning
to offer Azerbaijan membership in the alliance. Simmons
noted that Azerbaijan has not decided to ask for membership
in the alliance and has not taken the steps necessary to be
considered for the alliance.

KEYNOTE ADRESS
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4. (U) UK-based scholar natol Lieven delivered the keynote
address, an iteresting, balanced presentation which
highlighted the importance of independence for the southern
post-Soviet countries. He condemned scholars, analyses of
Central Asia and the South Caucasus as a "great game" and
"chessboard," arguing that this approach is dangerous because
it implies that only the U.S. and Russia are competitors
while both China - particularly through the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO)- and India play important
roles in the region. He noted that it was not inconceivable
that India could "step outside the U.S. framework" and forge
its own links with Central Asia and Iran. He also stressed
the great impact of a potential detente with Iran on energy
markets and energy plans.


5. (U) Lieven's speech was well-received and prompted a
lively debate about NATO's role in the region,
narco-trafficking in Afghanistan, the role of the European
Union, and future energy prospects and routes. Most of the
other speakers presented general overviews about energy,
security or country specific issues from a historical

standpoint, and were general in nature. The most interesting
and polarizing comments came from the Russian and Serbian
delegations.

RUSSIANS
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6. (C) The Russian delegation was represented by six Duma
members, Vladimir Komoedov and Yuly Kvitsinskiy of the
Communist Party and Nikolay Kovalev, Khozh Magomed Vakhiyev,
Anatoly Korendyasev and Anatoly Starodubets of United Russia.
Kovalev did most of the speaking, and he presented various
non-sequiturs and historical anecdotes which appeared aimed
at embarrassing NATO and specifically NATO's role in
Afghanistan. Kovalev reminded the participants that Russia
had applied for membership to NATO in 1954, arguing that
Russia in the past had tried to embrace NATO. He blasted
NATO as an ineffective and weak organization, arguing for
example, that 93 percent of global heroin production hails
from "NATO-controlled countries." He said that there is, in
his view, a positive correlation between NATO's role in
Afghanistan and the increased heroin production, implying
that NATO was involved in drug running.

SERBIANS
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7. (C) Bozidar Delic of the Radical Party and Dragan Sormaz
of the Democratic Party represented Serbia at the conference.
Sormaz's interventions - regardless of the topic - focused
on three themes. First, he thanked (on three separate
occasions) the Azerbaijani government for its refusal to
recognize Kosovo's independence, noting that Serbia would be
"forever grateful" for this stance. He said that Serbia
views the Georgian separatist regions and Nagorno Karabakh in
the same way as Azerbaijan does. He urged all those in
attendance who have recognized Kosovo to rescind their
decision. He was critical of NATO operations in Qanistan,
highlighting an alleged increase in narcotics coming from
Afghanistan, and claiming that the main drug traffickers of
Afghan heroin were Kosovars. He also was quick to point out
that the U.S. had recognized the Kosovo Liberation Army as a
terrorist group who had been in cooperation with al-Qa'ida,
and noted that various people from the KLA are currently part
of or associated with the Kosovo leadership. Finally,
Sormaz, playing to the local audience, noted that the
destruction of Serbian cultural heritage is akin to the
destruction of Azerbaijan's cultural heritage in Nagorno
Karabakh. He noted that Serbia was prepared, as the EU said
it was, to invest one billion Euros into Kosovo. Sormaz was
interrupted each time he spoke by the moderator, noting that
needed to stick to the topic. One time he was cut off
altogether.

CENTRAL ASIANS
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8. (C) The open, independent views of Lieven were in sharp
contrast to the presentations made by representatives from
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The Kazakhstani delegation, which
was led by Sat Tokpakbayev, during the first opportunity inQich the floor was open for discussion proceeded to read
from prepared remarks, which lasted approximately 20 minutes,
on the glories of Kazakhstan, the Kazakhstani leadership,
foreign policy, energy policy, Kazakhstan's tolerance for all
civilizations of the world, and its desire to workQth all
partners. The speech was not NATO-related and elicited
snickers throughout the conference hall. Similarly, the
Uzbekistani scholar Ravshan Alimov, from the "Institute of
World Economy" in Uzbekistan presented a similarly
sycophantic presentation about the great "development" of
Uzbekistan under President Islam Karimov. Nigina Sattorova,
the project coordinator of the "Information Education &
Cultural Center" in Tajikistan, gave a power point
presentation which consisted of tourist-type pictures of
Tajikistan, noting the natural beauty of the country.

REGIONAL BICKERING
--------------


9. (SBU) On occasion, members of the diverse audience were
unable resist opportunities to quibble over regional
conflicts. Turkish Justice and Development Party member

Mehmet Ceylan reprimanded keynote speaker Lieven for using
the word "Kurdistan" to describe areas populated by ethnic
Kurds. Lieven ignored him. Similarly, one of the members of
the Greek delegation reprimanded another speaker who used the
word "Macedonia" when describing the Former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia. The Greek representative referred to FYR
Macedonia as the "country which Skopje is in;" this
suggestion too was ignored.

COMMENT
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10. (C) While the conference provided participants a good
overview of some of the issues related to the South Caucasus,
the atmospherics were far more interesting and also
highlighted the challenges in promoting Euro-Atlantic
integration throughout the broader Eurasia region. Although
the participation of Central Asian states in this seminar was
a notable first, their representatives' scripted and
politically safe remarks were a clear indication of how far
these countries remain from embracing brQer NATO goals of
democracy and transparency. We note with some concern that
the seminar was used effectively by the Serbian and Russian
delegations to further their own political interests at the
expense of NATO. Their anti-NATO remarks were reported by
the large contingent of local media present at the seminar.
DERSQ