KOSOVO DEMARCHE DELIVERED TO AZERBAIJANI DEPUTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000160

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC AND EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS UN AZ
SUBJECT: KOSOVO DEMARCHE DELIVERED TO AZERBAIJANI DEPUTY
FOREIGN MINISTER ARAZ AZIMOV

REF: STATE 16319

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) The Ambassador delivered reftel demarche to Deputy
Foreign Minister Azimov on February 20 (FM Mammadyarov was
out of the country). Despite Azerbaijan's opposition to
Kosovo's independence, Azimov said, he had instructed the MFA
to be "measured" in its public statements, making only two
points: (1) Azerbaijan considers Kosovo's declaration of
independence to be a violation of international law, which
does not allow "unilateral secession" and (2) Kosovo must not
be a precedent for other territorial disputes. He noted, in
addition, that USG and others' recognition of Kosovo's
independence is not in compliance with international law or
OSCE principles. The Ambassador reviewed the USG's position
in detail, with Azimov taking careful note and focusing, in
particular, on its legal basis.


2. (C) Pointing to early reports of reactions by Bosnian
Serbs, Azimov said the GOAJ is deeply concerned over a
possible chain reaction by separatists elsewhere as a
consequence of the Kosovo decision. The Russians, he said,
"promise repercussions." It would be a "huge mistake" if
this process spread to the South Caucasus, but Abkhaz, South
Ossetian and NK separatists have already started making
claims of independence. This "can impact the NK negotiating
process which is not solid and not promising." The new
President of Armenia, who shares President Kocharian's
background, "will toughen the Armenian position and raise the
flag of independence again."


3. (C) The Russians see their interests threatened by the
Kosovo decision, Azimov, said, because "losing Kosovo means
losing Serbia -- as Serbia becomes integrated into Europe and
part of a progressive stable and politically developed region
-- and that means, losing the Balkans." Russia is the
"capital of troublemaking in the South Caucasus and the
Balkans, and Bosnia is just the beginning" of their reaction.
The Abkhaz and South Ossetians have already been invited to
Moscow by the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. NK was not
invited because of the Armenian elections, he said, but NK
separatist are now talking about independence, saying that NK
declared independence 17 years ago, and if Kosovo's
independence has been recognized, NK's should be recognized
too.


4. (C) The bottom line is "who will win what" in the South
Caucasus as a result of the Kosovo decision. Losses, he
warned, are possible. He repeated again that while MFA was
seeking explicitly "to be concise and unemotional, and not
create a panic in the press," the GOAJ sees many threatening
trends stemming from the Kosovo decision and is thinking hard
about the impact. He told the Ambassador again on February 21
that the GOAJ is carefully studying the USG position and
developments, to determine next steps.


5. (C) In a February 20 dinner with Senator Brownback, and a
lunch with the Ambassador on February 21, Azerbaijani MP's
argued that in the eyes of the Azerbaijani public, Kosovo
demonstrates that the USG is a powerful international actor,
and when it wishes, can impose solutions. This will make it
all the harder for the public to understand why despite years
of negotiations, the USG has not imposed a solution in the
case of Nagorno-Karabakh. The MP's noted that there will be a
discussion of the decision in Parliament February 22.
DERSE