IRAQIS WELCOME OBAMA VICTORY, BUT EXPRESS CONCERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003508

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQIS WELCOME OBAMA VICTORY, BUT EXPRESS CONCERN
OVER U.S. COMMITMENT TO IRAQ

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASONS 1.4
(b) and (d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Summary: In discussions following the November 4
election of Barack Obama, Iraqi contacts have reacted
positively but cautiously. While some expressed surprise at
Obama's victory, all contacts were congratulatory and
positive, recognizing the historic significance of the
election of the first African-American president. Contacts
consistently noted concern and uncertainty regarding
continuing U.S. support for Iraq under an Obama
administration, including a possible loss of U.S. focus on
Iraq. They would welcome affirmations of America's
continuing commitment to Iraq as we confront challenging
bilateral issues during the transition period. End Summary.

Iraqi Leaders Congratulate and Ponder Obama Win
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2. (C) In conversations with Embassy Officers November 5,
Iraqi reaction was overwhelmingly positive and
congratulatory. Foreign Minister Zebari described the
election as an "extraordinary, historic event." Prime
Minister Maliki's Chief of Staff, Tariq Abdullah, told the
DCM that the election had ended positively and that the
election of an African-American for the first time had sent a
"strong message." Dhia Mahdi, Chief of Staff to Sunni Deputy
Prime Minister Rafi Issawi, offered congratulations to
Poloff, and praised Senator Obama. UIA independent Abbas
al-Bayati, a prominent advocate for Iraqi Turkomen, confessed
that while he had publicly supported the candidate of the
party that overthrew Saddam, privately he was thrilled that
Americans elected such an inspiring figure. He added that
his young son had leapt around the room with glee when the
news came in.

America Still Firm ?
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3. (C) Maliki advisor Sadiq Rikabi was effusive in a
conversation with S/I Satterfield, stating: "I take my hat
off to the United States. To elect an African-American as
President is an historic and amazing demonstration of your
democracy. The American people should be very proud."
Rikabi hedged his comments, however, expressing concern over
the possibility that the Vice President-elect would be put in
charge of Iraq, given what is regarded here as Biden's
alleged support for Iraq's partition. (Comment: Prime
Minister Maliki is not a big supporter of a
confederation-like Iraqi state. End Comment.)


4. (C) Redha Taki, a member of the leadership council of the
Shia Islamist ISCI party, asked PMIN what changes Obama
would bring to American policy on Iraq. He acknowledged some
concern within the ISCI leadership about whether the
American commitment to Iraqi security would remain steadfast.
Taki noted that ISCI Chairman al-Hakim and other senior ISCI
figures had heard directly from President Bush about his
commitment, but Obama is more of an unknown. ISCI called a
special meeting November 5 morning to examine the
implications of Obama's victory and the party's reaction to
it. The meeting's conclusion, Taki stated, was that Iraq
need not fear any huge shift in American policy on Iraq.
PMIN noted that ISCI needed above all to help finalize
passage of the SoFA to ensure smooth transition on bilateral
security relations, and Taki readily agreed.


5. (C) Anbar province's Shaykh Ali Fares and Baghdad's
Shaykh Mutallib al-Masari, both Sunni Arabs, highlighted to
us their concern that the Obama victory would lead to a rapid
withdrawal of American forces in 2009. Fares stressed that
Iraqi security forces were not ready to defend Iraq's borders
against Iran and they would have trouble maintaining internal
security as well. PMIN urged them to weigh in with their
contacts in the political parties and parliament to press the
need to conclude the SoFA expeditiously. Both said they
already are doing so, and Mutallib highlighted his efforts
with Sunni Arab hardliner Saleh Mutlaq.


6. (C) Council of Representatives member Mithal Alusi told
Poloff that he was confident President Obama would be a
strong leader and continue to support Iraq. Fadhila bloc
leader Hasan al-Shimmari stated that Obama's victory was
historic and reflected the will of the American people. He
cautioned, however, that Iraq would have to wait to see what
Obama's Iraq policy would be.


7. (C) Hamid Majid Mousa, head of the Iraqi Communist Party,
praised Obama's victory but expressed concern to us that

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Obama might not remain as focused on Iraq as President Bush,
particularly in light of the financial crisis in the
U.S. Mehdi Hafedh and Maysoon Damluji of the secular
Iraqiyya party also praised Obama's victory but reiterated
Mousa's concern that the next administration might be more
consumed with the economy and other issues than Iraq. Hammadi
added that he was concerned that Obama could push for an
early withdrawal of troops, commenting that the new
Administration might make Afghanistan a higher priority than
Iraq.

Sadrists Urge U.S. Troop Out Within 16 Months
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8. (U) The Sadrist bloc in the Iraqi parliament issued a
statement November 5 calling Obama's victory a landslide
and noted Obama's call during the campaign to withdraw U.S.
troops from Iraq within 16 months. Spokesman Ahmed
al-Masoudi called on Obama to implement this policy, noting
that withdrawal of U.S. troops will benefit both countries
and, stated that there is no legal cover for American troops
to remain in Iraq.


9. (C) Comment: Although our Iraqi contacts have generally
been positive toward Obama's victory, their comments also
reveal an underlying anxiety that the new Administration may
bring a significant change in U.S. Iraq policy. Notably,
they are concerned that the economic crisis and the war in
Afghanistan may take priority over Iraq. Iraqi officials
such as these would welcome affirmations of sustained
American commitment to Iraqi security, stability and
democracy as we go forward in a challenging transition period
here. End Comment.

CROCKER