CHRISTIAN LEADERS DISAPPOINTED IN QUOTAS OUTCOME;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003506

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA/I, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2018
TAGS: KIRF PGOV PHUM PREL IZ
SUBJECT: CHRISTIAN LEADERS DISAPPOINTED IN QUOTAS OUTCOME;
UNAMI MORE POSITIVE

REF: BAGHDAD 3489

Classified By: By Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).

Summary and Comment
--------------


1. (C) Several prominent Christian leaders expressed
bitter disappointment over the single-seat minority quotas in
the Provincial Elections Law (PEL) passed on November 3
(reftel),and several minority groups issued a joint protest
statement on November 4. While all were frustrated, views on
why the quotas for minorities, and especially Christians, who
believe their greater numbers entitle them to more seats,
were reduced to only single seats differed. Their ideas on
what Christians should do next to register their dismay also
vary. UNAMI had put forward a proposal that would have given
more seats to Christian minorities, but it views the November
3 PEL outcome as a step forward for minorities. We share
UNAMI's view that the Council of Representatives has
acknowledged the principle of minority rights, even if the
seats fall short of the desired outcome from the minorities'
point of view. Christian political leaders likely will keep
pushing for a larger quota of seats in selected provincial
councils for the 2009 and future provincial elections. The
Ambassador had urged Parliament speaker Mashadani and Vice
President Abdel Mehdi from the main Shia Islamist bloc to
support the original UNAMI proposal. Looking forward, the
Embassy is in constant contact with a variety of Christian
and other minority group activists as the Christian political
leaders themselves ponder their next steps. End summary and
comment.

Unrealistic Expectations
--------------


2. (C) Yonadem Kanna, a parliamentarian and leader of the
Assyrian Democratic Movement (ADM),bitterly complained to
PMIN on November 4 about the Council of Representatives'
setting aside only one seat for Christians in Ninewah and
Baghdad during its November 3 vote on Article 50 of the
Provincial Elections. He said the parliament's Sunni Arab
and Shia majority had refused to grant more because they
feared that a larger Christian contingent in the Ninewah
provincial council would team up with the eventual Kurdish
contingent to reach the one-third of the council's membership
required by law to seek integration of Ninewah into the
Kurdish Regional Government. (Comment: another prominent
parliamentarian, Hamid Musa of the Iraqi Communist party,
explained the political calculation in the exact same terms
on November 4. Anti-Kurdish parliamentarian Hanan Qeddo,
from the Ninewah Shebak community, went a step further and
charged that the Kurds had encouraged Kanna to seek three
seats in Ninewah knowing that it would trigger the backlash
from the Sunni Arabs and Shia and thus make the Kurds look
better. End Comment.) Kanna acknowledged it was unlikely
there would be yet another amendment to change minority
representation for the councils elected in 2009. He said the
Christian leadership might call for a boycott. PMIN
cautioned against a boycott, noting that the Iraqi Christians
instead should mobilize their voters to lock in the official
recognition that they had secured and to demonstrate that the
set-aside for them does not reflect the true numbers of
Iraq's Christian communities.


3. (C) Hashim Al-Ta'e, chairman of the CoR ad hoc committee
on provincial elections, in meetings with Deputy Polcouns
before and after the September 24 vote, said that Kanna met
with him numerous times to try to increase the Christian
quotas. Al-Ta'e said he believed Kanna's demands were
unrealistic, told Kanna as much, and urged him to take what
he could get. Al-Ta'e pointed out that Kanna was not even
satisfied with the original Article 50 (excluded from the PEL
passed on September 24),which granted Christians 3 seats in
each of Ninewah and Baghdad and one in Basrah. Al-Ta'e did
not say if Kanna had lobbied others on the quota issue; he
might not have known.


4. (C) Chaldean Democratic Union Party leader (Kurdish
Alliance) parliamentarian Ablahad Afram Sawa claimed to
Poloff on November 4 that the outcome was plotted by those in
the CoR who oppose minority representation. He noted that
only the Sadrists and Kurdish Alliance supported the
Christians. Sawa said he and fellow CoR member Yonadam Kanna
will try to get other Christians in the GOI, e.g., Minister
of Industry Fawzi Hariri (KDP) and Minister of Human Rights
Wijdan Salim (Independent) to support an election boycott.
Kanna and Sawa have already sent a letter to the CoR
Presidency Council requesting that the PEL be vetoed, but

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Sawa acknowledged that it was unlikely that would happen a
second time.


5. (U) Assyrian, Turkmen, Yezidi, and Mandean leaders issued
a joint statement November 4 protesting the November 3 vote,
denouncing "political oppression against minorities in Iraq"
and calling for a "reversal" of the COR decision as soon as
possible in order to prevent the "marginalization" of "weak
and vulnerable Iraqi communities."

Advice for the Politicians
--------------


6. (C) In contrast, Non-Muslim Endowments Director Abdullah
Al-Naufali, told Poloff the same day that a boycott or a veto
would serve no purpose. Al-Naufali believes Christians in
Iraq should organize large, peaceful demonstrations to
protest the single-seat Christian quotas. Al-Naufali
believes Iraq's Christian religious leadership should meet
with GOI leaders to drive home their concerns about the way
Iraq's Christians' are being marginalized. However, the
underlying cause of this "defeat," according to al-Naufali,
is not those who oppose minority representation, but the
political disunity and disarray of the Christians themselves.
Al-Naufali urged the U.S. to help convince Iraqi Christian
leaders that they must unite and speak up for their rights
with one voice.


7. (C) Journalist, human rights activist and Assyrian
Democratic Movement (ADM) member William Warda told Poloff on
November 4 that it was unjust to give Christians the same
status as the Yezidis and Shabak (these two minorities also
got single seats in Ninewa). Warda's reasoning was that
there are far more Christians than Yezidis or Shabak. In
addition, Christians are "better educated and qualified" and
have "made greater contributions" to Iraq. Warda said this
unfair outcome will only encourage more Christians to leave
Iraq permanently. As for himself, he does not plan to vote
in the provincial elections because "Why should I accept this
gift (of one seat) from the racist Iraqi politicians?" Warda
believes many Christians will boycott the elections.
Nevertheless, he agreed it would do no good to veto the PEL
(as suggested by Kanna and Sawa) and delay the elections.
That would only serve to strengthen the positions of the
blocs in power.

UNAMI: A Glass Half-Full"
--------------


8. (C) UNAMI official Andrew Gilmour told PMIN on November
4 that SRSG deMastura perceived the November 3 outcome as a
small victory for minorities; there are six seats guaranteed
for minorities in provincial councils where before there had
been none. deMastura had never seriously thought his
proposal of 3 Christian seats reserved in Ninewah and Baghdad
would pass. Instead, this had been an opening negotiating
ploy, according to Gilmour. The UNAMI team recognized that
this outcome disappointed Iraqi Christian political leaders,
but the official recognition of the Christian, Shebak and
Yazidi communities was at least a glass "half-full." This is
only a beginning, Gilmour observed. There would be other
elections, and election laws, in the future. UNAMI released
a press statement November 4 that welcomed the decision to
allocate specific seats to minority groups and noted that the
amendment to the law does not give a larger representation
for Iraqi minorities but urged the Presidency Council
nonetheless to approve the amendment.

CROCKER