UNAMI INTERESTED IN "GRAND BARGAIN" FOR KIRKUK,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003487

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM UN IZ
SUBJECT: UNAMI INTERESTED IN "GRAND BARGAIN" FOR KIRKUK,
BUT DELAYS HEAVY LIFTING UNTIL NEXT YEAR

Classified By: Senior Advisor Thomas Krajeski, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: In a November 2 meeting with S/A Krajeski,
UNAMI's Andrew Gilmour said UNAMI will finish its second
round of reports on the disputed internal boundaries (DIBs)
areas by mid-December, but delay issuing them until after the
provincial elections because of the currently tense political
situation. UNAMI officials are interested to assess the
feasibility of a grand bargain to resolve Kirkuk and the
other issues that divide Baghdad and Erbil, and they will
provide technical expertise to the Article 23 committee
established in the provincial elections law to produce a
resolution of Kirkuk's status. Gilmour expressed concern
that the make-up of the committee, as likely to be approved
by the CoR, may result in isolating the Kurds. He added that
the cancellation by Kurdish provincial officials of
agricultural contracts held by Sunni Arab farmers in Kirkuk
Province is raising tensions. The UN favors a moratorium on
such contract cancellations until the status of the province
is decided. Gilmour was critical of the human rights record
of Kurdish provincial administrators in Ninewa and UN
officials believe there may be some merit in allegations of
Kurdish responsibility for recent attacks on Christians. End
summary.

UNAMI will support Article 23 committee
- - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (C) Senior Advisor Krajeski and PolOff met with UNAMI's
Political Director Andrew Gilmour and Peter Bartu November 2.
Gilmour said UNAMI plans to energetically engage with the
committee on Kirkuk established by Article 23 of the
Provincial Elections Law (which originally appeared as
Article 24 in the first version of the legislation that was
passed and then vetoed in July). They expect to receive a
letter from Council of Representatives (CoR) Speaker
Mashadani November 3 formally requesting UNAMI's technical
assistance. Bartu has met with several of the new committee
members, who, he said, seem to be serious and credible. In
addition to the statutory members of the committee -- two
members of the Council of Representatives (CoR) representing
each of the three major ethnic groups (Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen)
and one representing Christians -- the legislation provides
for non-voting expert members. Both Da'wa and ISCI have
sought to have a representative join the committee.
According to Gilmour, the CoR looks set to endorse the final
slate of nine committee members November 3. Gilmour
commented that the make-up of the committee could result in
isolating the Kurds.

UNAMI will hold Article 140 reports until after elections
- - - - - - - - - - - -


3. (C) Gilmour confirmed the adjusted timeline for release of
the second round of UNAMI's DIBs reports: field work will be
completed by November 15 and draft reports will be ready by
mid-December. In an October 28 meeting, Bartu told us the UN
will share the draft reports with us by December 15, although
they do not plan to share the reports with the parties until
after provincial elections are held in January. (Bartu said
UNAMI received a Kurdish request to delay release of their
findings until after elections, given the tense state of
relations between Baghdad and Erbil, but UNAMI officials were
already inclined to hold off until February. Gilmour added
that release in 2009 also avoids having the reports get
ensnared in the politics surrounding SOFA negotiations.) The
UN is still set to offer a menu of options to resolve Kirkuk
itself, which will be structured to distribute some pleasure
and mostly pain among the various groups as equally as
possible. As he has stated previously, Gilmour predicted
&no group will be entirely happy with any option.8 UNAMI
will not declare a favorite and will be able to accept any of
the proposed solutions serving as the nucleus of a compromise.

Some Interest in "Grand Bargain"
- - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (C) Gilmour said UNAMI will not react formally to the
recent International Crisis Group (ICG) report evaluating a
possible "grand bargain" on Kirkuk and the other issues that
divide Baghdad and Erbil. He said that privately UN
officials see some merit in the idea of facilitating an
agreement in which the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG)
cedes control over oil and gas in Kurdish-controlled areas in
exchange for guarantees of Kurdish autonomy and definition of
KRG controlled areas.

Land Tension in Kirkuk
- - - - - - - - - - - -


BAGHDAD 00003487 002 OF 002



5. (C) Bartu flagged an issue raising ethnic tension in
Kirkuk province -- ongoing efforts by provincial authorities
to cancel agricultural contracts with mostly Sunni Arab
wafideen in places like Daquq, southeast of Kirkuk city, and
Dibis, to the northwest. Kurdish administrators argue that
the actions are entirely consistent with Article 140 of the
constitution, which calls for a process of "normalization" of
land originally inhabited by Kurds prior to Saddam's
Arabization program. According to PRT officers in Kirkuk,
these contracts have been held since the 1970,s in some
cases; the lands in question were previously owned by Kurds,
Arabs and Turkomen; and the decision to nullify the contracts
appears to be legal under the Article 140 process. Whether
legal or not, the result is Arab farmers removed from fertile
farmland and a rise in threats from Sunni Arab political
leaders. Bartu said UNAMI officials believe there should be
a moratorium on such contract cancellations during this tense
time. (Comment: We agree these decisions are ill-timed and
should be delayed. PRT and UNAMI representatives in Kirkuk
have told the Kirkuk governor that he should suspend action
on these agricultural contracts until next year, when a
decision on elections in Kirkuk will be made. To date, none
of the eviction notices have been processed and the
cancellations are being held, pending an appeal to and
decision by central government authorities. End comment.)

Human Rights in Mosul
- - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (C) Gilmour had just been in Mosul and said that he had
relayed a stern message to Kurdish provincial authority
officials that the UN would be watching provincial elections
carefully and would speak out forcefully about any
irregularities. He complained to Sinjar District KDP chief
Sarbast Omar Hassan Terwanishi of heavy-handed Kurdish
attempts to gather pro-KRG tribal and political leaders to
meet with the UN. Asked about allegations that the Kurds are
responsible for recent attacks on Christians in Mosul,
Gilmour said there may "some truth to the allegations."
Bartu said the Prime Minister's investigative committee
claims to have compelling evidence of Kurdish complicity,
although he had not seen it himself.


CROCKER