KARBALA ISF COMMANDER SHOWN THE DOOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003431

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2023
TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA ISF COMMANDER SHOWN THE DOOR

REF: A. BAGHDAD 3165 B. BAGHDAD 2967 C. BAGHDAD 3052

D. BAGHDAD 3324

Classified By: Karbala PRT Leader Don Cooke


1. (C) Summary: Karbala ISF commander MG Ra'ad Shaker Jawdat
al-Hasnawi, whose ouster by Governor Aqeel Mahmoud al-Khazali
on September 22 was reversed days later by Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki, has been shown the door. He departed
Karbala in mid-October following Aqeel's survival of a
no-confidence vote in the Provincial Council and now is in
Baghdad. Sacking Ra'ad is an apparent attempt by Maliki to
unify Karbala's Da'wa Party in the run-up to the provincial
elections. The Ra'ad affair has raised concerns about the
possibility of renewed political violence here. The PRT
continues to stress the importance of peaceful resolution of
political disputes. End Summary.

Governor Prevails, At a Cost
--------------

2. (C) Governor Aqeel has succeeded in showing Da'wa Party
rival provincial ISF commander MG Ra'ad the door. According
to provincial police and government contacts, Prime Minister
Maliki--who some insist initiated the move to oust Ra'ad--was
surprised at the negative reaction among Karbalans to the
announcement on September 22 that the provincial ISF
commander would be transferred to serve as IP chief in Diyala
(ref A). Anti-Da'wa members of the Provincial Council (PC)
were quick to pounce on the controversy. Already angered by
Aqeel's establishment of Tribal Support Councils (ref
B)--viewing them as an attempt by Da'wa to usurp the PC's
authority--they called for a vote of no-confidence in the
Governor.

3. (C) Aqeel survived the October 16 vote, but only just. He
received one vote more than the one-third required to prevent
him from being impeached. Local government contacts report
that, although Aqeel was politically damaged, he earned
grudging respect from PC opponents for handling the crisis
with grace and aplomb, repeatedly offering to meet and
compromise with no preconditions. The same contacts
speculate that, in "taking one for the (Da'wa) team," the
Governor--who most believe is finished insofar as his
provincial political prospects are concerned--may be rewarded
by the Prime Minister with a national-level sinecure.
The Price of Loyalty
--------------

4. (C) As we reported previously (ref C),Ra'ad's
take-no-prisoners style and penchant for self-promotion
apparently were viewed as liabilities by Aqeel and Maliki in
the run-up to provincial elections. Urban business contacts
have told us that, while they credit Ra'ad and his protege,
MAJ Ali Hamid Hashim, with having quashed the violence and
chaos that reigned here little more than one year ago, they
regard the heavy-handed security regime--especially the many
checkpoints snarling traffic here--as a serious impediment to
economic progress. Farmers, particularly in the former
Sadrist strongholds of Husayniyah Qadah and Hindiyah Qadah,
have been the most vocal in complaining of abuse at the hands
of over-zealous police.

5. (C) Personal as well as political animus fueled the move
to oust Ra'ad. Aqeel and Ra'ad led competing Da'wa factions,
producing a schism that a variety of contacts here say Maliki
sought to close before it could turn into a liability at the
polls. While Ra'ad--himself formerly close to Maliki (both
men hail from Hindiyah Qadah)--apparently rankled the Prime
Minister through his self-aggrandizement and
less-than-discreet flirtations with both ISCI and Fadhilah,
Aqeel worked quietly to win Maliki's trust through unstinting
devotion to the Prime Minister and his vision for Da'wa, a
demonstration of loyalty that nearly cost him his job. Ra'ad
currently is in Baghdad performing unspecified duties,
according to U.S. military officers. The same officers
report that MAJ Ali--whose sister is Maliki's wife--wanted to
go with Ra'ad but decided to stay when told he would be
promoted to colonel and given command of an "anti-terror"
brigade here.
Comment
--------------

6. (C) The Ra'ad affair has revealed an apparent attempt by
Maliki--supported by his protege, Aqeel--to unify Karbala's
Da'wa Party in the run-up to the provincial elections. It
also has raised the specter of renewed political violence
here. Karbalans who attributed a string of a least five
small explosions to intra-Da'wa fighting preceding the
provincial ISF commander's ouster now speculate that Da'wa's
opponents--having failed to impeach the governor--may
initiate similar attacks aimed at discrediting Karbala's
Da'wa-dominated administration. The PRT continues to stress
the importance of peaceful resolution of political disputes.
End Comment.
CROCKER