SAHWA LEADER TO AMB CROCKER: WE MUST HAVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003341

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: SAHWA LEADER TO AMB CROCKER: WE MUST HAVE
INVESTMENT TO SUCCEED

REF: A. BAGHDAD 3255

B. BAGHDAD 3008

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, the leader of Anbar's Iraqi
Awakening Conference (Sahwa) party, and prominent Anbari
politician Sa'adoun Duleimi, told Ambassador that Anbar
province needs investment from U.S. companies. Sheikh Ahmed
bemoaned the current weak state of the economy in Anbar,
particularly the agricultural sector. He also touched on the
Awakening's preparations for upcoming provincial elections,
expressing confidence in his prospects. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Sheikh Ahmed and Sa'adoun Duleimi, a statistician and
former Minister of Defense, met Ambassador Crocker at the
Embassy on October 9. The discussion focused largely on the
current economic situation and economic potential of Anbar
province. Sheikh Ahmed asserted that factories in Anbar
operate at one quarter of capacity, and there is little
electricity. Duleimi worried that agriculture, a key segment
of Anbar's economy, "is almost dead." Sheikh Ahmed said that
Anbaris are giving up farming due to increased fuel prices.
He warned that USD 16 million in loans for farmers in Anbar
might be wasted without fuel subsidies for the farmers. When
questioned about the unemployment rate in Anbar, Duleimi
replied that it is "very high," and that only military and
security people are working.

NEED FOR U.S. INVESTMENT IN ANBAR
--------------


3. (C) Duleimi stated that Anbar needs investment to help
the unemployed. Sheikh Ahmed took up this theme, saying that
he had "a message for the American people: There is a need
for U.S. companies to come to Anbar and to partner with Iraqi
companies--nothing will make us succeed except investment."
He wished that U.S. companies, rather than Russian or other
countries' companies, would benefit from the sacrifices made
by U.S. armed forces in Iraq. He referred to Iraq's oil and
gas resources as investment opportunities, and exclaimed that
a USD 200 million investment "could cover whole governorates."


4. (C) In response to Ambassador Crocker's inquiry about
Gulf or Middle Eastern companies' investment in Anbar, Sheikh
Ahmed said that only one Gulf company is working in Anbar.
The Ambassador promised to ask the Crown Prince to explore
investment opportunities in Anbar.


5. (C) The Ambassador also stated that partnership is
important, and that while it would be very difficult for U.S.
companies to invest in Iraq alone, partnering with Iraqi
companies or companies from other countries in the region
would be better. The Ambassador added U.S. companies at this
stage are more concerned about the lack of an effective legal
structure to protect U.S. investors and their investments in
Iraq than about security concerns.

UPCOMING ELECTIONS
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6. (C) Recalling the Ambassador's recent visit to Anbar and
walk through Ramadi's downtown market (ref A) there with the
Deputy Secretary, Duleimi observed that Arab media covered
the visit closely. He thought that the Ambassador,s
presence was an "excellent" message that meant a great deal
to the people of Anbar. He hoped that GOI leaders would make
similar visits to Anbar and tour Ramadi. Sheikh Ahmed said
he told the Minister of Defense to tell the Prime Minister of
the Ambassador's and the Deputy Secretary's visit to Anbar
and their walks through the streets. Sheikh Ahmed invited
the Prime Minister and anyone else from the GOI to come for a
similar tour.


7. (C) Referring to a vigorous public display of support for
Sheikh Ahmed and the Sahwa he saw during the market walk,
Ambassador Crocker noted that he had seen Sheikh Ahmed's
"election campaign" while in Ramadi. Sheikh Ahmed laughed
and responded that "you told me it seemed the election
results have already been settled."


8. (C) Turning to the upcoming provincial elections, the
Ambassador asked Sheikh Ahmed about the possibilities for
cooperation with other parties in Anbar and elsewhere.
Sheikh Ahmed did not answer directly, saying only that people
are getting ready to participate and they had never done so
before. He also noted that there were tribal, non-religious
parties that are registered for elections. He claimed that a
similar situation exists in all the governorates.

BAGHDAD 00003341 002 OF 002



THE ECONOMY AS ELECTION ISSUE
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9. (C) Sheikh Ahmed maintains that with strong people in
power the terrorists will not stay; by contrast, religious
parties are weak when confronting terrorists. He believed
that "we need economists, not religious people, as
candidates. In the U.S., the candidates talk about the
economy, he commented and he wished candidates would do the
same in Iraq. Ambassador noted that a discussion of such
issues would be useful in Iraq now.


10. (C) Duleimi noted that surveys six months ago revealed
that people named security as their number one priority, but
a recent survey revealed that security was second to services
and the economy. He observed that "if we do not pay
attention to the economy it will reflect negatively on
security."

SECTARIANISM IN IRAQ
--------------


11. (C) Commenting on an Iraqi think-tank's publication on
Iraqi public opinion that he presented to the Ambassador,
Duleimi said the results indicate Iraqis still think about
the needs of the country as a whole, rather than focusing on
particular ethnic or sectarian perspectives. Ambassador
Crocker agreed, saying that "Iraq was never overtly sectarian
for very long." Duleimi commented that apart from some very
specific periods (2006-2007, '80s-'90s under Saddam, and in
the late 19th century) sectarian or ethnic divisions were
more personal ways of life rather than specific government
policies.


12. (C) Sheikh Ahmed agreed, noting that Shi'a and Sunni had
fought together as Arabs against Iran because they were
Persians. He added that more Shi'a than Sunni fought in that
war. Ambassador Crocker recalled how little understood the
Iran-Iraq war is in the United States and expressed the hope
that he could invite a prominent Shi'a Iraqi General to speak
at U.S. military institutes about his experience in that war.
With a subtle smile on his face, Sheikh Ahmed murmured that
perhaps the Americans need to understand how to fight the
Iranians.

CROCKER