IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE PART 2:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAGHDAD 000333

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS UPDATE PART 2:

REF: A. BAGHDAD 221

B. BAGHDAD 197

C. BAGHDAD 131

D. BAGHDAD 190

E. BAGHDAD 203

F. 2007 BAGHDAD 3459

Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for Reasons 1.4(b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: We believe Iraq will have the technical
capability to conduct credible, nationwide provincial
elections in early fall of 2008. However several political
obstacles must be overcome over the next seven months,
including the passage of a well-crafted elections law, a
start to resolution of internal boundary disputes, and
overcoming potential political party weaknesses and
obstructions. We continue to work on technical training and
capacity building in order to ensure GOI readiness once an
election date is set. We hope that the result of these
efforts will be credible, nationwide elections that reflect
the will of the Iraqi people. This is the second in a series
of cables describing the process and preparations, both
technical and political, needed to hold provincial elections.
End Summary.


2. (U) This cable draws from conversations with the United
Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI),the
International Foundation for Election Systems (IFES),and the
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) board of
commissioners.


3. (C) Many Iraqis, particularly those in areas that feel
cheated by the results of the January 2005 provincial
elections, are eager for elections as soon as possible, and
the Iraqi leadership has indicated it understands the need
for local elections by early fall of 2008. The first hurdle
to overcome is passage of the provincial powers legislation,
which appears to be imminent. Next is the passage of an
election law, which would have to happen no later than June
1, 2008 for elections to occur in early fall of 2008. We
believe this is possible due to the momentum we are now
seeing in the CoR with regard to passing other benchmark
legislation such as the Accountability and Justice Law
(de-Ba'athification) and the anticipated passage of
provincial powers legislation.

ROLLING OR NATIONWIDE ELECTIONS?
--------------


4. (C) The idea of conducting rolling provincial elections
has been floated by both the USG and GOI. This is driven by
concern that provinces like Anbar and Ninewa, where low voter
turnout in 2005 resulted in provincial councils that do not
reflect the ethnic or religious makeup of the province.
Expediting elections in these provinces will give them their
delayed buy-in to the political process by electing new
provincial councils that are more representative and
inclusive of all relevant political parties and movements in
the province. This would, for example, harness the
&awakening8 movements in those regions, transforming them
into political parties. The fear is that nationwide
elections could not be held soon enough to satisfy the
yearnings of the Sunni groups in Anbar and Ninewa for
political participation, thereby increasing their sense of
political disenfranchisement and possibly compelling them to
work against the GOI and Coalition interests. (Note: Anbar
has been temporarily placated by the addition of eight
non-voting seats on the provincial council to accommodate
members of its Sahwah (Awakening) movement.)


5. (C) Once a number of logistical issues are addressed (ref
A),elections could be held in all provinces. One of the
dangers in holding elections only in certain provinces is the
risk that the USG could be seen as favoring one political
group (e.g. Sunnis) over another. Reporting from the PRTs
indicates provincial elections are desired throughout Iraq,
even in provinces with high voter turnout in 2005. There are
also logistical challenges to holding rolling elections, such
as how to minimize voter fraud. This is easier to do when
all provinces are voting on the same day. Therefore we
believe that same-day nationwide provincial elections will
hold the most credibility among the Iraqi people.

POLITICAL OBSTACLES
--------------


6. (C) There are three main political obstacles to overcome
before credible provincial elections can be held: 1) passage
of an election law that clarifies voter eligibility, voting
arrangements for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and
refugees, and type of elections (e.g. constituency-based,
open or closed list); 2) resolution of internal boundary

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disputes; and 3) objections by political parties.

ELECTION LAW
--------------


7. (C) The election law must define who is eligible to vote.
In addition to determining voting age, the law will have to
tackle two hot political issues -- residency requirements and
how internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees will
vote. A lengthy residency requirement (more than six months
residency in the province) could potentially disenfranchise
IDPs and refugees, and an even longer residency requirement
could be a factor in settling Article 140 issues. And of
course the more than two million Iraqi refugees in Syria and
Jordan are not currently resident in any province. An
election law will have to clarify whether IDPs vote for the
provincial council in the province where they currently live,
or for the provincial council in the province they came from,
or be given a choice between the two. And if they vote for
the council in the province they came from, then the question
becomes whether they have to return to their home province to
vote, or whether they can vote for their home province at
their local polling place.


8. (C) Most IDPs would prefer to vote for the provincial
council of their home province. They hope to return home
some day and would like a say in the governance of that
province (ref B) . However mass migration of returning IDPs
has the potential to cause social disruption and increased
violence, and so forcing them to return home to vote puts
them at great risk. UNAMI is researching ways for IDPs to
receive ballots from their home province without the
logistical nightmare of requiring that all provincial council
ballots be available at over 6,000 polling places. One
thought is to provide two to three polling places per
province exclusively for IDP voting. For refugees, the
question is how to get ballots to them in Syria and Jordan,
and elsewhere. In 2005, refugees did not vote in provincial
elections, only nationwide elections. In fact, only 300,000
ballots were cast by out-of-country voters, according to the
International Elections Advisory Team (IEAT). Refugee voting
is further complicated because out-of-county-voters most
likely have only national identification cards and would have
difficulty proving ties to a specific province. IEAT has
commented that allowing out-of-country voters to vote in
local elections is not the prevailing practice.


9. (C) In addition to voter eligibility, the decision of
whether there will be an open or closed-list system will also
need to be determined by the elections law. The 2005
elections were held under a closed-list system ) voters
voted for the party and party leaders decided who got the
seats the party won. PRT reporting has indicated that voters
want an open-list system for provincial elections (refs C and
D). The logistical issue with an open-list system is the
length and complexity of the ballot. If 30 seats are
available on a provincial council, then each party would list
30 candidates on the ballot. This leads to a very long
ballot, which increases the amount of time each voter will
need to make a selection, thus affecting the hours a polling
location is open and the security needed. High rates of
illiteracy in some areas complicate the process of holding
open list elections. In addition, the requirement for female
representation must be addressed. The Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC) has expressed particular concern
about implementing the arrangement, outlined in an early
draft of the election law, requiring that thirty percent of
candidates selected by each voter be female. Entire ballots
would be invalidated if the voter did not choose enough
women. Other countries with quotas for female representation
use other arrangements to achieve this goal, including
reserved seats. We believe these issues can be overcome, and
that an open-list system is important to establish
accountability of the elected officials.


10. (C) On January 30, we heard from Dr. Fadhel Khadum,
Legal Advisor to the Prime Minister, that a draft election
law is with the Shura Council for review, and that the Shura
should be finished with it in about a week.

INTERNAL BOUNDARY DISPUTES
--------------


11. (C) At first glance, resolution of provincial boundary
disputes throughout Iraq would seem to be the prerequisite
for provincial elections. However, since all boundary
disputes cannot be resolved before provincial elections, we
believe it is better to hold elections using the current
boundaries (as was done in 2005),with remaining boundary
issues to be resolved after the elections. As part of its
expanded mandate, the United Nations Assistance Mission for
Iraq (UNAMI) is focusing facilitating the process for
resolution of these internal boundary disputes (ref E).

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Staffan de Mistura, the Special Representative of the
Secretary General (SRSG),has decided to focus on the

SIPDIS
least-contentious areas at first to build confidence. He
believes that progress can be made before the June 30
deadline of the Article 140 extension. De Mistura believes
that signs of progress will encourage other regions to trust
that a political solution can be had.

POLITICAL PARTY OBSTRUCTION
--------------


12. (C) Some political parties that currently hold power in
the provincial councils are likely to lose heavily in the
next round of elections. This leads to a lack of political
incentive on the part of some parties to push for elections.
One manifestation of political party obstruction we have
observed is the attempt by ISCI and Dawa politicians to
discredit IHEC, claiming without specific substantiation that
it has become politicized (ref E and F). Both the Embassy
and UNAMI have heard these accusations, including from
Council of Representatives (CoR) members, but when pressed
for specifics, the officials claim that their actual concerns
are with the Governorate Electoral Offices (GEOs),and the
affiliations of the GEO managers. (Note: The CoR members
from each province are responsible for nominating candidates
for GEO managers, and we are seeing that some of the CoR
members, who were the engineers of the alleged politicization
are now the sources of some of the complaints. End Note) We
are, however, seeing signs from the provinces calling for
elections due to dissatisfaction with the current provincial
and national governments (refs C and D).

CONTINUED ELECTIONS PREPARATIONS UNDERWAY
--------------


13. (C) We continue to provide technical assistance for
elections to Iraq through USAID- and DRL-funded programs.
USAID, through its implementing partner International
Foundation for Election Systems (IFES),is working with IHEC
to prepare a draft voter registry. The list for the Public
Distribution System (PDS ) the nationwide food ration
distribution system) has been converted to a voter registry,
and IHEC is awaiting the enactment of an election law to
begin vetting the list at the provincial level (ref A). IFES
is also preparing a technical assistance team to provide
guidance on how to draft elections legislation, if it is
requested by the GOI. (Note: IHEC has requested that this
assistance be provided to drafters of the law, but we have
yet to determine whether the drafters themselves or the
members of the CoR also want this assistance. End Note)


14. (C) DRL, through its implementing partners International
Republican Institute (IRI) and National Democratic Institute
(NDI),is providing capacity building training to government
officials, political parties, and civil society organizations
to help them become more effective in advocacy, networking,
caucus development, and organizational management. These
programs will strengthen both the individual political
players and their respective organizations, ensuring a degree
of increased political maturity as Iraq heads into its next
round of democratic elections.


15. (C) UNAMI continues to provide technical assistance to
the GOI and IHEC on election day preparations, including
staffing, polling locations, and security. In terms of
election day security, the entire country could be placed
under a curfew, as was done in 2005, to reduce violence and
voter fraud. People will not be able to travel, other than
to vote; shops will be closed; and a vehicular ban will go
into effect to prevent the possibility of car bombs at
polling places. The need for these actions has been
generally accepted by the GOI and the international community
based on security concerns. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)
along with MNF-I will provide security ) the ISF will secure
the first ring (polling locations) and the second ring
(town),while MNF-I will patrol the third ring (areas of the
province outside of towns and villages).


16. (C) Concerns have also been raised about the lack of
budget appropriations for provincial elections. The CoR
originally allocated money in IHEC,s 2007 operating budget
for provincial elections. Because elections did not occur,
the money was taken back by the CoR. However, IHEC is not
worried about money being available for elections. Chief
Election Officer Kareem Al-Tamimi explained that once an
election law defines the type of election (open versus closed
list),that will determine the costs IHEC will incur to hold
the elections, and then IHEC will draw up a budget and
present it to the CoR for funding. Kareem had no concerns
that the CoR would not provide the needed money.

COMMENT
--------------

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17. (C) Although the political parties in power have little
motivation to call for elections and have been delaying many
of these decisions for months, there now appears to be enough
political momentum and public dissatisfaction with the
current government to force movement on the issue. However,
without a strong push from the U.S. and other international
partners, it is not likely that provincial elections will
take place this year. We believe it is possible to overcome
the remaining obstacles and hold free and credible Iraqi
provincial elections in early fall of 2008. While rolling
elections are technically feasible and should not be ruled
out, our assessment is that same-day nationwide provincial
elections will have the most credibility with the Iraqi
people and that should therefore be our initial objective.
Dissatisfaction in places like Anbar and Ninewa can probably
be controlled if it becomes clear within the next few months
that nationwide elections will be held before the end of the
year. End Comment.
BUTENIS