Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAGHDAD3106
2008-09-26 11:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

IRAQ NEIGHBORS PROCESS: UNAMI PLANNING FOR

Tags:  PREL PGOV EPET PREF IZ TU SY JO 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3106/01 2701158
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261158Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9630
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003106 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2108
TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET PREF IZ TU SY JO
SUBJECT: IRAQ NEIGHBORS PROCESS: UNAMI PLANNING FOR
MINISTERIAL; SAYS NEW DIRECTION NEEDED

REF: BAGHDAD 3086

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Robert Ford. Reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003106

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2108
TAGS: PREL PGOV EPET PREF IZ TU SY JO
SUBJECT: IRAQ NEIGHBORS PROCESS: UNAMI PLANNING FOR
MINISTERIAL; SAYS NEW DIRECTION NEEDED

REF: BAGHDAD 3086

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Robert Ford. Reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: GOI preparations are moving forward for an
expanded neighboring countries ministerial in Baghdad this
fall but, according to a senior UNAMI advisor, the Neighbors
Process is a weak mechanism that falls short of its goals.
This is due, he said, to the lack of a coherent Iraqi
regional strategy (a symptom of its own internal divisions),
the absence of a unifying set of basic principles among Iraq
and its neighbors, and deficiencies in the Iraqi MFA, both
with regard to its own capacities and its weight relative to
other key GOI players. UNAMI is drafting a concept paper
with ideas on how to reinvigorate the Neighbors Process.
Despite its deficiencies, he said, the process has value: it
reinforces other bilateral efforts between Iraq and its
neighbors and provides the foundation for a more vibrant
regional dynamic in the future. End Summary.

--------------
The Task at Hand - Working Groups in October,
Ministerial in November/December
--------------


2. (C) Ambassador Gerard Sambrana, Special Political
Adviser to SRSG di Mistura, told poloffs September 23 that
the MFA's Neighbors Process events planning is on track.
Confirming what Deputy Foreign Minister Labeed Abbawi told us
on September 18 (septel),Sambrana (who heads the small UNAMI
team responsible for assisting the MFA's Support Mechanism)
confirmed that planning is underway for the Energy Working
Group to meet in Istanbul in the October 11-14 time frame.
Likewise, he said the Refugee and Security Working Groups
would also meet in October, in Amman and Damascus,
respectively, but that dates have not yet been set.


3. (C) Sambrana did not have specifics on the substance of
the working group meetings as the host countries (Turkey,
Jordan and Syria) had not yet shared draft programs with
UNAMI. He attributed this to their desire to keep the
process as decentralized as possible. This desire was

evident last year during the prolonged negotiations to
establish the "Support Mechanism" unit in the MFA and define
UNAMI's role. Iraq's neighbors, he noted want to cede as
little control over the Neighbors Process as possible to
Baghdad. Notwithstanding this, Sambrana said planning for
the working group meetings is underway and he expected to
have more details to share soon. Deputy PolCouns alerted
Sambrana to a possible scheduling conflict between the Energy
Working group meeting in Istanbul (above) and an October 13
meeting in London organized by Iraq's Ministry of Oil that is
to bring together 35 companies qualified to bid for the
development of eight Iraqi oil and gas fields. Sambrana was
unaware of this potential conflict and said he would raise it
in an upcoming meeting with the Ministry of Oil.


4. (C) Turning to the upcoming Ministerial, Sambrana said
the MFA is planning to hold it in November or December, but
has not yet developed a detailed agenda. He said UNAMI wants
this Ministerial to do more than reiterate the statements of
previous Ministerials. One way, he mused, would be to issue
a "Declaration of Good Neighborliness" that would set forth a
conceptual framework for future work in the Neighbors
Process. Sambrana did not go into detail about what such a
declaration would include, but said its aim would be to
address the lack of agreed principles among participating
countries that has, thus far, hindered the process. Foreign
Minister Zebari's initial response to the idea of a
"declaration" was positive, he said.

--------------
What's Wrong and What Needs to be Done
--------------


5. (C) On the Neighbors Process more broadly, Sambrana said
the lack of a set of guiding principles is only one part of
the equation. Because of internal ethnic and sectarian
differences, the GOI itself does not have a coherent regional
strategy. For example, there is a lack of consensus between
Kurds and Arabs on what Iraqi policy should be towards
Turkey, and even a lack of agreement amongst Iraq's Shia on
how the Iraqi-Iranian bilateral relationship should evolve.
These differences, he said, express themselves through
different GOI actors and have led to a certain level of
policy incoherence. Additionally, Iraq's neighbors each have
different aims and priorities, some of which are completely
at odds with each other.


6. (C) Furthermore, he noted, while the MFA and Foreign
Minister Zebari are supportive of the Neighbors Process, the

BAGHDAD 00003106 002 OF 002


MFA lacks capacity and staff, is overwhelmed by other
priorities, and is in a weak position vis-a-vis other key GOI
actors. Sambrana related that UNAMI has heard that Zebari
has been progressively sidelined over the past several
months, further weakening the MFA's position. As a possible
remedy, he suggested that Prime Minister Maliki and his key
advisers take on a larger role, thus ensuring the GOI
political buy-in necessary for the process to be effective.

--------------
A Changing Landscape
--------------


7. (C) Finally, Sambrana noted, Iraq's relations with its
neighbors, and the Neighbors Process itself, will evolve as
the role of the U.S. and the coalition enters a new phase,
and as Iraq takes on greater responsibilities. What that
means for the Neighbors Process is still to be determined.
One way to accommodate these changing dynamics, Sambrana
offered, would be to replace the current working groups with
"forums" that would broaden the scope of discussion and
expand the pool of participants beyond governments. A forum
on political security, for example, could focus on more than
simply border security. Refugees could be one of several
issues taken up in a social affairs forum. An economic
affairs forum could address issues such as trade and economic
cooperation. Deputy PolCouns expressed concern that
expanding the scope beyond the current working group format
would likely be hard for the MFA, given the difficulty it is
having managing the current working groups. What is needed,
he countered, is a process that facilitates targeted action
on concrete issues.

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) The Neighbors Process should be more
results-oriented and a review of its functioning is in order
as we approach a new ministerial. However, broadening the
scope and mandate in the manner Sambrana described would
simply overwhelm MFA's current capacities. Increasing the
role of the Prime Minister's Office in the Neighbors Process
would not improve Iraqi efficiency, hinder efforts to build
Iraqi MFA capacity and further exacerbate tensions between
the Prime Ministry and the Foreign Ministry. We will
continue to discuss with Iraqi officials and UNAMI about how
to extract maximum advantage from the Neighbors Process as
GOI planning for the November/December ministerial moves
forward.
CROCKER