Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAGHDAD3007
2008-09-18 10:48:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LAW: MORE CHURNING BUT NO

Tags:  PGOV IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #3007/01 2621048
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181048Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9474
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003007 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LAW: MORE CHURNING BUT NO
DEAL YET

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Robert Ford for Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003007

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LAW: MORE CHURNING BUT NO
DEAL YET

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Robert Ford for Reasons 1.4
(b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) A parliamentary committee came close to agreement
September 16 evening on language for the disputed Kirkuk
election language of the draft provincial elections law.
Proposed changes by Arab and Turcoman members about this
disputed text for Article 24 of the draft law scuttled
consensus and led to a chaotic scene on the floor of the
parliament September 17. There were even shouting matches
among members of the Sunni Arab-Turkoman "July 22 Group" that
has so far blocked consensus among the Shia, Kurdish and
Sunni Arab parliamentary blocs. As of midday September 18 a
parliamentary committee was still trying to hammer out an
agreed text for an article 24. The key sticking point seems
to revolve around the timing of changes to the Kirkuk
provincial administration and whether those changes must be
fully implemented prior to the holding of the eventual Kirkuk
provincial election. Some members and UNAMI seem unusually,
if quite cautiously, optimistic a solution will be found. If
no deal enables the parliament to move ahead with a new law,
one influential parliamentarian told us September 18 that the
Presidency Council will move next week to call for provincial
elections using the 2005 election law. End Summary.

Inside the Negotiations
--------------


2. (SBU) On Tuesday, September 16, an ad hoc Council of
Representatives (CoR) committee consisting of members of the
Legal and Provincial Affairs Committees came tantalizingly
close to agreement on language for Article 24 of the
provincial elections law. Article 24 deals with elections in
Kirkuk governorate, and has long been the key obstacle to
passage of the law.


3. (C) We spoke to Hashim al-Ta'e, Chairman of both the
Provincial Affairs Committee and of the ad hoc committee, on
September 16 just after the committee's afternoon session.
Al-Ta'e explained that the committee had been working on
the basis of a new UNAMI-provided text of the disputed
Article 24, a variant of an earlier version. He said that
agreement had been reached on adopting the text with only two
changes: in Article 1, which deals with the sharing of
administrative posts in the governorate, Arabs and Turcomen

wished to replace the sharing formula "fair and balanced" by
"equal." Second, the Arabs and Turcomen wished to drop
Article 4, which specifies the joint responsibility of the
central government and the Kurdistan Regional Government to
finance and provide security for a committee to be created in
order to examine issues of power-sharing, demography and
property losses. According to Al-Ta'e, the Kurdish
representative had agreed to these changes ad ref, but had
asked for a few hours to get instructions to accept the
changes.


4. (C) Ambassador heard a somewhat different version during
his visit to Kurdish President Masood Barzani in Kurdistan on
September 16-17. Barzani told the Ambassador September 16
evening that he had just received the text and could offer
only initial comments. He said that he could accept a "fair
and balanced" distribution of administrative seats in
Kirkuk's provincial administration but he rejected the word
"equal." Equal, he said, implied that the communities were
roughly equal in size, and that should be left to the
elections to determine. Barzani also warned that the
constant fiddling with the proposed Article 24 texts was not
helpful; it was hard to know which text was the operative
one, he observed. Instead of changing texts, Barzani stated,
the political bloc leaders had to make some hard decisions to
move a provincial elections law forward. Barzani stated that
he could accept the UNAMI compromise article 24 text as it
was, without changes. New changes would cancel that deal,
however.


5. (C) Al-Ta'e claimed that, late at night, the
confirmation of Kurdish acceptance had arrived. By then,
however, the Arabs and Turcomen had requested additional
changes. UNAMI political officer Mohamed Najjar, who wrote
the UNAMI proposed text, told us September 18 morning that
the main change was still stuck on the issue of power sharing
in Kirkuk. The Sunni Arabs/Turkoman hardliners now wanted
the "equal" personnel changes in the Kirkuk provincial
administration fully implemented before the Kirkuk provincial
elections take place. (They argue that without those
changes, the Kirkuk administration will utilize government
resources on behalf of the Kurdish parties.) The original
UNAMI text said the personnel changes would be underway when
the Kirkuk elections are held. The Kurds on September 17,

BAGHDAD 00003007 002 OF 002


responding to Barzani's instructions, responded by saying
that, if the Arabs and Turkoman wanted further text changes,
then the Kurds, too, would have changes to make. A tired and
somewhat embittered Al-Ta'e told us that he had become the
target of the anger of the sides when he transmitted various
proposals made by the sides. Sunni Arab Islamic Party floor
leader Ayed Sammarai'e commented to us September 17 evening
that he doubted the hardline Sunni Arabs and Turkoman (in a
bloc called the July 22 group) really wants a compromise
deal. Every time a compromise appears ready, such as with
the original UNAMI compromise text, the Sunni Arab/Turkoman
hardliners put forward new amendment ideas that scuttle the
deal, Sammarai'e observed bitterly.

Chaos on the floor Wednesday
--------------


6. (SBU) Frustration and acrimony were apparent during the
September 17 CoR session when Speaker Mashadani announced
that there was still a "dilemma" concerning the negotiations.
He proposed dissolving the Al-Ta'e committee and creating
another one. As Al-Ta'e vainly tried to explain the state of
play from the rostrum, various members began expressing their
discontent. Several criticized the idea of creating yet
another committee, especially when the current one had made
such good progress. The low point of the debate came when
several members of the July 22 Group (those who voted against
the Kurds on Article 24 when the elections law was first
passed on July 22) stood and shouted at one another at
length. Chaos was complete when a Sadrist member stood to
apologize for the behavior of another Sadrist member.

What's next?
--------------


7. (C) Finally, Mashadani managed to hammer the chamber to
silence, then asked the Al-Ta'e committee to continue its
work, with a view to a vote Thursday, September 18. Our
contacts on September 18, however, told us there likely would
be no floor vote before September 20 or September 21.


8. (C) Shaykh Humam Hamoudi, the leader of the Shia
Islamist Coalition, the largest single bloc in the
parliament, told us September 18 morning that the Sunni
Arab/Turkoman group and the Kurds might yet come to a deal;
he didn't think the differences were so great. If they do
not reach a deal by early next week, however, he anticipated
the Presidency Council would announce provincial elections
using the 2005 election law. PMIN asked how the Presidency
Council could do that and still have an open-list system.
Hamoudi said that the Presidency Council would first make its
announcement and then the parliament would move to amend the
2005 election law to allow for open lists.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Dealing with a barely tractable issue halfway
through Ramadan adds another element of uncertainty and raw
emotion. Still, we have been impressed in our conversations,
and even by the debate on the floor, that many members do
seem to believe that this could be the final, successful
push. This even includes some hard-line Sunnis. The
long-suffering Al-Ta'e told us that, once Article 24 has been
agreed, the several other, more minor changes required by the
Presidency Council veto of the earlier version of the law
should not delay things further. His committee, he said, had
already dealt with those, either through agreed new text or
through options to be voted on. He predicted, therefore,
that if a successful vote on Article 24 could be arranged,
then the entire law could be approved relatively quickly.
UNAMI's Nejjar speculated that the Iraqi Islamic Party, which
heretofore has been reluctant to break with the harder line
July 22 bloc, might finally accept the current UNAMI
compromise text. If the Islamic Party does, the Shia
Islamist Coalition and the Kurds are ready to join with it
immediately and pass the law with a floor vote that would
include finally Shia, Kurds and (a large group of) Sunni
Arabs. Even Speaker Mashadani, whose role has not always
been helpful, seems tired of the constant haggling. He told
Ambassador and a group of Sunni Arab parliamentarians at
iftar September 17 that if the Parliament can't pass a
provincial elections law now it should be dissolved and new
national elections held.
CROCKER