Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BAGHDAD2967
2008-09-15 06:37:00
SECRET
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

KARBALA: DA'WA, ISCI COMPETE FOR APATHETIC VOTERS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR IZ IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2637
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #2967/01 2590637
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 150637Z SEP 08
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9408
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002967 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IZ IR
SUBJECT: KARBALA: DA'WA, ISCI COMPETE FOR APATHETIC VOTERS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2316

B. BAGHDAD 2124

Classified By: Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a PRT Karbala Reporting Cable.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002967

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IZ IR
SUBJECT: KARBALA: DA'WA, ISCI COMPETE FOR APATHETIC VOTERS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 2316

B. BAGHDAD 2124

Classified By: Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a PRT Karbala Reporting Cable.


1. (S) Summary: Amid widespread voter apathy among Karbalans
concerning the political process, members of the two dominant
parties -- Da'wa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
(ISCI) -- are jockeying for position in the run-up to
provincial elections. Da'wa increasingly appears to have the
upper hand, with its newly developed tribal links
strengthening its already dominant position. Contacts
indicate, however, that intra-Da'wa rivalry between the
Governor and the Iraqi Security Forces may be responsible for
a series of small explosions here, the latest of which killed
one person. End Summary.

Why Bother Vote?
--------------


2. (S) A variety of contacts report that Karbalans of all
stripes are dispirited by what they perceive as politics as
usual. Many newly eligible voters have not bothered to
register despite a vigorous media campaign -- undertaken by
the national government, the United Nations, and various NGOs
-- urging them to do so. According to UNAMI, only 264 new
registrations have been recorded since the province's 20
election offices opened in August. To put this figure into
context, in January 2006, MNF-I counted 787,072 eligible
voters in Karbala, 423,264 of whom already were registered
from the previous election.


3. (S) Some politicians are equally discouraged. Independent
Provincial Council (PC) member Mohsen al-Kenani told the PRT
on September 9 that at least eight of the PC's 36 members do
not plan to seek re-election. He stated that Karbala's
hawzas -- Shi'a seminaries -- are pressing independent PC
members to affiliate with one or the other of the two
dominant religious parties here, Da'wa or ISCI. Candidates
wishing to retain their autonomy must be from a prominent
tribe or otherwise have sufficient name recognition to
prevail against party-backed opponents; few possess such
advantages (Al-Kenani is himself the head of a powerful
tribe). Al-Kenani continued that Judge Qassim al-Aboudi,
national chairman of the Government Election Office (GEO),

visited Karbala last month to announce that voters whose
personal data have changed can update their registrations via
cell phone by dialing 7777 on a cell phone. In spite of
this, he observed gloomily, relatively few people (UNAMI says
2,152) here have called. Meanwhile, some of the provincial
election offices have yet to receive a single visitor.

Deputy Governor Spot Still Unfilled
--------------


4. (S) Note: According to Kenani, Acting PC Chairman Abd
al-Al al-Yasiri (also an indpendent) selected him to fill the
deputy governor position, vacant since the formal resignation
in late August of Jawad Kadhum Husayn al-Hasnawi.
Unfortunately, he continued, Governor Aqeel Mahmoud
al-Khazali (Da'wa) does not wish to share the political
limelight with anyone -- particularly in the run-up to the
provincial elections -- and has blocked all attempts to hold
a vote on al-Hasnawi,s replacement (a protege of Prime
Minister Maliki, Aqeel is believed by our contacts to be
angling for a federal sinecure). Similarly, the PC, wishing
to avoid any controversy, will not schedule a vote to replace
al-Yasiri, according to al-Kenani. See ref A for details.
End Note.

Delay Benefiting Religious Parties?
--------------


5. (S) Against this sobering backdrop, government officials
belonging to Da'wa are using the resources at their disposal
to shore up their support in advance of the provincial
elections. Independent PC member Hamid al-Hilali (who serves
as secretary to Acting PC Chairman Abd al-al-Yasiri and has
yet to decide whether he will run again) said on September 10
that time is the greatest ally of the religious parties: a
delay in balloting until late 2008 will enable incumbents
affiliated with Shi'a parties to use the emotions associated
with the month of Muharram (which begins December 30) -- and
especially Ashura (which will correspond to January 7) -- to
boost their campaigns. Al-Hilali stated that Da'wa is
counting on the backing of Karbala's tribal council, which
counts some 400 clan leaders among its 12 branches, to propel
its candidates to victory. He added that, to ensure the
tribes' loyalty, each sheikh currently receives $100 per
month as a "gift" from Da'wa. See Ref B for background on
Da'wa's outreach to the tribes.

BAGHDAD 00002967 002 OF 002



Da'wa in the Driver's Seat
--------------


6. (S) With provincial elections still unscheduled and voter
registration low (septel),government officials belonging to
Karbala's dominant Da'wa party are using the resources at
their disposal to shore up their electoral support.
According to Independent Provincial Council member Hamid
al-Hilali (who serves as secretary to Provincial Council (PC)
Chairman Abd al-Yasiri and has yet to decide whether he will
run again) Al-Hilali stated that Da'wa is counting on the
backing of Karbala's tribal council, which counts some 400
clan leaders among its 12 branches, to propel its candidates
to victory. He added that, to ensure the tribes' loyalty,
each sheikh currently receives $100 per month as a "gift"
from Da'wa. (See Ref B for background on Da'wa's outreach to
the tribes.)


7. (S) Da'wa is the strongest political party in Karbala and
a number of top provincial leaders either formally or tacitly
belong to the party, according to al-Hilali. These include
Aqeel ; ISF commander MG Ra'ad Shaker Jawdat al-Hasnawi and
his deputy, MAJ Ali Hamid Hashim; Kadhum Abd al-Zahra al-Hur,
the head of the Shi'a Waqf; and the Directors-General of
Health, Education, Agriculture, and Environment. Da'wa also
holds a plurality of seats on the Provincial Council.
Al-Hilali continued that Da'wa has moved into the vacuum
created by the Sadrists' implosion following last year's
deadly Shabaniyah debacle to position members in the top
echelons of many key institutions in the province. The
military and police in particular, he said, are filled with
Da'wa loyalists.

Da'wa Split Creating Security Issues?
--------------


8. (S) Al-Hilali went on to describe a split between Da'wa's
politicos, headed by Aqeel, and its military wing, led by MAJ
Ali. Asked why BG Ra'ad was not the boss of the latter,
al-Hilali replied that although Ra'ad appears to be the ISF
strongman here, in fact he is a front for Ali, who wields the
real power. Mutual loathing characterizes the relationship
between the two Da'wa factions and, according to
knowledgeable observers here, may be the genesis of a string
of at least five small explosions in downtown Karbala during
the last two months, with the latest -- two blasts 30 minutes
apart on the evening of September 10 -- resulting in one
fatality. (Note: The explosions of September 10 occurred on
the same day that Aqeel -- reflecting complaints from
businessmen and others -- announced the province would not be
"held captive" to security measures and promised to "shut
down" 76 police checkpoints and 90 observation towers. End
Note.)

Comment
--------------


9. (S) All of our interlocutors, official and non-official
alike, have remarked in recent weeks on how the populace is
"fed up" with politics as usual. Instead of voicing protest
or mobilizing themselves to "throw the bums out," Karbalans
appear content to sit on their hands. This apathy is
enabling Da'wa and, to a lesser extent, ISCI, to position
themselves to take maximum advantage of the balloting when it
occurs. End comment.
CROCKER